Isicwangciso seNkqantosi yokuThengiswa kweMini yeNgxelo ye-Non-Farm Pays (NFP)

by Cory Mitchell

Ukuxhaswa kwi-volatility emva kweNgxelo yeNFP

Nasi isicwangciso sokuthengiswa kweentsuku ezimbini ze-EUR / USD xa i-non-farm payroll data idedelwa ngoLwesihlanu wokuqala ngenyanga. Esi sicwangciso sichaza ukuba senze ntoni ngaphambi kokukhululwa, indlela yokufaka indawo kunye naluphi na ulwalathiso, indlela yokulawula umngcipheko kunye nexesha lokuthatha inzuzo. Ikwajongana nobukhulu besikhundla (ubunzima okanye ubuncinci besithuba ozithathayo) njengokuba le nxalenye yolawulo lwengozi.

Ingxelo engekho yefama yokubhalwa komvuzo yenye yeengxelo zezoqoqosho ezilindeleke kakhulu kwiimarike zangaphambili . Ipapashwe ngoLwesihlanu wokuqala lwenyanga ngo-8: 30 ekuseni ngeMpuma ye-US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ukukhululwa kwedatha kubandakanyeka inani leenombolo, kwaye kungekhona nje i-NFP (leyo yinguqu kumsebenzi wabasebenzi kweli lizwe, kungabandakanyi abasebenzi baseburhulumenteni, urhulumente, abucala nabangeniso-nzuzo). Omnye umetri oquka ukukhululwa kwedatha yizinga lokungasebenzi .

Njengenye yeziganeko zeendaba zezoqoqosho zenyanga, iibhanki zemali (ngokukodwa ezo zibandakanya idoli yase-US) zibona ukunyuka kwexabiso elikhulu kumzuzu kunye neeyure emva kokukhishwa kwedatha. Oku kwenza ithuba elihle kubahwebi bemini ngesicwangciso esilungileyo sokusebenzisa inzondo. Ngezantsi isicwangciso se-forex yesinyathelo ngeyinyathelo sokuthengisa ingxelo yeNFP.

01 Urhwebo lwe-EUR / USD Emva kweNgxelo yeNFP

I- EUR / USD iyona yeyona nto iphambili yokuthengisa ngemali kwihlabathi, kwaye ngoko ke inikezela ngokusasazeka kwexabiso elincinci kunye nokwenyuka kwamanani okwenza amashishini. Kukho isizathu esithile sokuthengisana nosuku kwenye idilesi ngexesha leNFP ingxelo.

Vala zonke izikhundla zokuthengisa zangaphambi kweentsuku zingama-10 ngaphambi kwe-8:30 AM ET xa idatha ilungiselelwe ukukhutshwa. Kule siqhinga esingenziyo isikhundla phambi kwesimemezelo, kunoko asenzi nto ade ikhuphe iinombolo ze-NFP. Xa oko kwenzeka ixabiso liza kubona ukunyuka okukhulu okanye ukuncipha okuqhelekileyo kuthatha imizuzu embalwa (ngamanye amaxesha ngaphezulu). Ngelo thuba lokuqala asenzi nto, silinda nje.

Kule qhinga, sebenzisa ididi eyi -1 ye- EUR / USD.

Ukuhamba kokuqala kwe-02 kusungula ukuLawulwa koThutho lokuqala

Umzekeliso 1. I-EURUSD 1-I-Minute nge-Outside Move Emva kweNpP Report. MT4

Emva nje kwe-8: 30 AM ET intengo iya kuphakama okanye iwele ngokukhawuleza, ngokuqhelekileyo ubuncinane ubuncinane i-30 ipips okanye ngaphezulu kwimizuzu emibini. Eyona nto ibalulekileyo ihamba phambili ekujoliswe kuyo ngenjongo yokurhweba ngosuku.

Ukuhamba kokuqala kusinika ulawulo lwezorhwebo ( elide okanye elifutshane ) kworhwebo lokuqala. Ukuba ixabiso lihamba ngaphezu kwama-pips angaphezulu kwe-30, siza kufuna ukuhamba ixesha elide .... kodwa UKUBA NAKUBA sifumana ukulungiswa kwezorhwebo olufanelekileyo, okuxutyushwa kungekudala.

Ukuba ixabiso liyancipha ngaphezu kwe-30 pips, kwimimiselo embalwa emva kwe-8:30 AM ukukhululwa, ngoko siya kukhangela ukuba siphumelele kwintengiso yethu yokuqala ... nini kwaye xa ukusekwa kwezorhwebo kwenzeka.

Kulo mfanekiso 1 (nqakraza ukukhutshwa okukhudlwana) ixabiso lihamba ngokugqithiseleyo emineni embalwa emva kwe-8: 30 ekuseni. Oko kuthetha ukuba siya kukhangela ukuthenga xa kusetyenziswa urhwebo. Amaxesha kwitshathi yi-GMT, kungekhona ET. Ngako-ke, ngo-15:30 xa iindaba zikhutshwe kwiidatshana eziqhotyoshelweyo.

03 Lindela Olu Lungiselelo loRhwebo

Umzekeliso 2. Kuphi ukungena kunye neendawo zokuyeka ukulahleka kunye neNFP Isicwangciso seNkqantosi. MT4

Ukunyuka kokuqala okanye ukuwa kwiiyure emva kwe-8: 30 AM kusivumela ukuba siyazi ukuba siza kuthungisa phi. Isinyathelo esilandelayo kukuba ulinde ukusekwa kwezorhwebo. Ukusekwa kwezorhwebo kukulandelelaniswa kweziganeko ezimele zenzeke ukuze senze urhwebo. Ekubeni kuninzi ukungazitholiyo ezijikelezayo iindaba, siza kujonga ukutshintshana okumbalwa kokuseta, njengoko kungabikho iintsuku ezimbini ezifanayo.

Nantsi into esilindeleyo:

Emva kokuhamba kokuqala kweepipsi ezingama-30 okanye ngaphezulu, kufuneka kube ne-pullback ye-5 engama-minute yemigangatho yamanani . Oku kuthetha ukuba ukuba ukuhamba kokuqala kuphakanyisiwe, sifuna ukubona ixabiso liyehla ukusuka phezulu ekuhambeni kokuqala kwaye uhlale ngaphantsi kwimizuzu engama-5 (akuyiyo yonke into yokudityaniswa kwemivalo). Okukhethiweyo ukukhutshwa komsebenzi kubangela inkqubela phambili, kodwa akufanele ihlasele ngaphantsi kwe-8:30 AM intengo apho kuqala ukuhamba. Ukuba ukuhamba kokuqala bekuhla, sifuna ukubona ixabiso lentengo ephantsi kweyokuhamba lokuqala kwaye sihlala ngaphantsi ngaphantsi ukuba ubuncinane ama-5 bhar. Ngokukhethekileyo ukukhangela kwakha inkqubela phambili, kodwa akumele iphakame ngaphezu kwe-8:30 AM xabiso apho kuqala ukuqala ukuhamba.
Ngokulinda ubuncinane i-bar-5 bar barback ungayenza umgca wokuhamba kumanqanaba aphakamileyo yamanani entengo (ukuba ukuhamba kokuqala kwakusenyuka) okanye ngaphaya kwemida yexabiso (ukuba ukuhamba kokuqala bekuhla). Qaphela: udweba i-trendline kwiimvalo zexabiso elibhaliweyo.
Ukuba ukuhamba kokuqala kwakusenyuka, thenga xa ixabiso lokubiza liphuka ngaphezulu kwendlela yokuhamba. Ukuba ukuhamba kokuqala bekuhla, faka urhwebo olufutshane xa intengo yexabiso lihamba ngaphantsi kwe-trendline.

Le yindlela elula kakhulu isicwangciso kwaye iluncedo kwiimeko ezininzi. Ngelishwa, kusemgangathweni, ngoko ngezinye iinkqubo i-pullback ayinakubonelela nge-trendline ewusizo ekutshintsheni ukungena. Kwiimeko ezinje, ukungena okunye okukhulunywe ngawo kwicandelo elilandelayo kunokuba luncedo.

Ukuba kuthengiswa ixesha elide, faka ilahleko yokuyeka i- pip enye ngaphantsi kwe-low low yenziwe nje ngaphambi kokungena.
Ukuba kuthengiswa intengiso emfutshane, faka ukulahleka kokuyeka enye ipayipi (kunye nobukhulu besasazo sakho) ngaphezu kwephakamileyo yakutshanje eyenziwe ngaphambi kokungena.

Umzobo wesi-2 (nqakraza ukukhuphela kwenguqu) ubonisa isicwangciso emsebenzini. Ukufuduka kokuqala kwakusenyuka, ngoko sifuna urhwebo olude. Kukho i-pullback egcina ubuncinane iibhajethi ezi-5, kwaye i-trendline ithathwa kwinqanaba eliphezulu lexabiso elibhaliweyo. Ixabiso liye laphuka ngaphezu komqondiso wokuthenga ukuthenga. I-stop-loss loss is placed one pip ngaphantsi kwe-downback eyenziwe.

04 Ulungiso oluthile loRhwebo (s)

Umzobo 3. Uhlobo olungenayo lokungena kwiNFP Isicwangciso seNkqantosi. MT4

Emva kokuhamba kokuqala, ukuba ixabiso libuyisela ngaphaya kwesigamu somgama wokuhamba kokuqala (ngaphambi kokuphula umgca wokuhamba umzila kunye nokubonisa ukungena) ke le ndlela ingasetyenziswa.

Xa ixabiso libuyile ngaphezulu kwe-50% ( lingasebenzisa ithuluzi lokubuyisela i-Fibonacci ), lindela ixabiso lokudibanisa ubuncinane amabhadu exabiso ezimbini. Oko kuthetha ukuba intlawulo iyahamba ecaleni kwimizuzu emibini. Dweba umgca kunye namanani aphakamileyo aphantsi kwala mabini amanani entengo xa ibha yesibili igqiba kwaye ibha yesithathu iqalisa ukwenza.
Ukuba ukuhamba kokuqala kwakusenyuka, uthenge ukuba intengo yexabiso lihamba ngaphezu kwephakamileyo yokuhlanganiswa (umgca owuchukumisayo). Ukuba ukuhamba kokuqala bekuphantsi, faka urhwebo olufutshane ukuba intengo yebhidi ihla ngezantsi kwe-consolidation.
Ukuba ukuhweba kwexesha elide kukubangela, hlela ukulahleka kokuyeka omnye umbhobho ongezantsi ngaphantsi kokuhlanganiswa.
Ukuba intengiso emfutshane ivuselela, faka ukulahleka kokuyeka enye ipayipi (kunye nobukhulu besasazo sakho) ngaphaya kokuphakamileyo kokuhlanganiswa.

Umzobo 3 (nqakraza umfanekiso omkhulu) ubonisa umzekelo wesi sicwangciso. Imirhumo yamanani ukuze sibheke ishishini elide. Ixabiso libuyisela emuva kwaye lidibanise, kodwa ke lihlahla endaweni yokubambisana ngaphezu kokuhlanganiswa. Kule meko, akukho ntengiso, kuba ixabiso alihambeli ngaphezu kwephakamileyo eliphezulu lokuhlanganiswa. Ngethuba nje ukuba intengo ihlala phezulu apho ukuqala kokuqala kusenza siqhubeke nokukhangela ixesha elide.

Kulo mfanekiso 3 ixabiso alihlali ngaphaya apho kuqala ukuhamba. Oku kuseka enye yorhwebo yorhwebo. Ukuba ixabiso lihamba ubuncinane be-15 iipips ezidlulileyo apho kuqala ukuhamba, sinokukhangela urhwebo kule ndlela esitsha, emva kokutshintsha. Kulo mfanekiso 3 intengo yokuqala imirhumo kodwa ke iyawa kwaye ihamba ngaphezulu kweepips eziyi-15 ngaphantsi apho kuqala ukuhamba. Ukulahla okukhulu kuthetha ukuba ngoku sibheke imisebenzi emfutshane. Xa ixabiso liqala ukurhoxisa, khangela enye yeempawu zokungena ezichazwe kweli candelo okanye ngasentla.

Ixabiso ekujoliswe kuyo liye lafakwa kwi-3.

05 Ukusungula iNjongo yokuNcedo

Umzekeliso 4. Ukuseka iNjongo yeNzuzo kunye neNFP Forex Strategy. MT4

Ngenxa yokungahambisani nokubhengezwa kweendaba, ukuba kude kangakanani inani elihamba ukusuka kwixabiso le-8:30 lingahluka ngokubanzi ukusuka kwimihla ye-NFP ukuya kwesinye. Ngamanye amaxesha uhamba kuphela iipipu ezingama-50 ngaphakathi kweeyure ezimbalwa, ngamanye amaxesha uhambisa iipips 300 okanye ngaphezulu kwiyure okanye ezimbini.

Oko kwathiwa, ukuhamba okokuqala kukufuneka sinike enye ingcamango yokuba i-EURUSD iyayiphendula njani le ngxelo yeNFP.

Ekubeni silindele i-pullback ngaphambi kokuthatha urhwebo, emva kokuba i-pullback iqala ukuvela, yilinganisa umgama phakathi kwexabiso elingu-8:30 kunye nokuphakama okuphezulu okanye okuphantsi kokuqala (ukuba ixabiso liqala ukuxhuma ngo-8:29 lathiso, faka oko). Oku kufuneka kube okungenani iimpipu ezingama-30 okanye ngaphezulu.

Ngoku, nqumla loo nani kwisiqingatha. Ngokomzekelo, ukuba inani lihambele ama-pips angama-43 ekuhambeni kokuqala, unqumle ukuba kwisiqingatha kwaye ushiywe ngama-pips angama-21.5. Inombolo yokugqibela yimiba emininzi yepips oza kubeka ithagethi yakho (umyalelo wokunciphisa ukuphuma kworhwebo kwinzuzo) kwixabiso lakho lokungena.

Umzobo 4 (cofa ukuze ubone ingqungquthela ekhudlwana) ibonisa enye yezobugcisa obufanayo esibujonga ngaphambili. Kule meko, ubukhulu bokuhamba kokuqala ngu-115 ipips. Sika kwisiqingatha, "injongo yethu" yingu-57.5 ipips.

Umzobo 3 ubonisa umzekelo wendlela yokujoliswa kwenzuzo. Kwimeko apho, ukuhamba kokuqala kwakunama-pips angama-56, ngoko-ke unqunywe kwisiqingatha, ubeka injongo ekujoliswe kuyo kwi-28 ipips ngaphandle kokungena.

06 Umngcipheko / Umvuzo kunye nobukhulu bendawo

Ngaphambi kokuba kukho nawuphi na urhwebo uyazi ixabiso lakho lokungena .... kuba uyayazi phezulu okanye ephantsi kokuhlanganiswa okanye intengo apho i-trendline iya kuphulwa. Qaphela ukuba ekubeni i-trendlines iqhube ixabiso lokuphumla liya kutshintsha yonke ibha.

Kwakhona uyazi indawo yakho yokulahlekelwa yindawo ngenxa yokuba uyazi apho iphakamileyo ephezulu / ephantsi yayingaphambi kokungena kwakho. Uyazi kwakhona iinjongo zakho zentengo kuba ukuhanjiswa kokuqala sele kwenzeke.

Umehluko phakathi kokulahleka kwakho kokuma kunye nokungena kukho 'umngcipheko worhwebo' kwimibhobho. Umehluko phakathi kwenkalo yakho yokujoliswa kwenzuzo kunye nenqaku lokungena 'inzuzo yakho' kwiipips.

Yithatha kuphela urhweba ukuba inzuzo yakho ubuncinane i-1.5x yakho yengozi yorhwebo. Ngokufanelekileyo, kufuneka ibe ngu-2x okanye ngaphezulu. Kwimimandla engentla ngenzuzo yokufumana inzuzo malunga ne-3x yengozi yorhwebo.

Ubungakanani bendawo bubaluleke kakhulu. Kubeka ingozi kwi-1% yentlawulo yakho kworhwebo. Oko kuthetha ukuba ubungozi bakho bezohwebo, ukwandiswa ngawaphi amaninzi athengayo, akufanele kube ngaphezu kwe-akhawunti yakho ye-1/100. Ngokomzekelo, ukuba unayo i-akhawunti ye-$ 5,000, unokubeka ingozi kwi-50 engama-yorhwebo nganye (1% yee-5,000 zamaRandi). Ukuba umngcipheko wezorhwebo unama-pips angama-20, ubukhulu besikhundla sakho asimele sibe ngaphezu kwama-2.5 amaqashiso (oko kuthetha ukuthatha uhwebo oluxabisa ama-25,000 e-$, okuya kufuna ukuphakanyiswa ). Ngesithuba se-2.5 sesithuba se-mini, ukuba ulahlekelwa iipips ezingama-20 uya kulahla i $ 50. Ukuba ubungakanani besikhundla sakho bukhulu kunelo, uya kulahleka ngaphezu kwe-$ 50, engacetywanga ngenxa yobukhulu be-akhawunti.

Indlela yokuchonga isikhundla esifanelekileyo inikeza umzekelo omalunga nendlela yokubala ubungakanani besimo esipheleleyo.

07 ADAPT i-Method, Musa ukuyibhala

Indlela echazwe ngasentla isikhokelo. Akunakwenzeka ukuchaza indlela yokuthengisa yonke indlela eyahlukileyo ngayo isicwangciso esenzeka. Oku kutheni i-demo ithengisa isicwangciso, ngaphambi kokuhweba ngokuhlala, ikhuthazwa. Qonda izikhokelo kunye nokuba kutheni zikhona, ngoko ke ukuba iimeko zihluke kancinci ngosuku oluthile unako ukulungelelanisa kwaye aluyi kuchithwa ngemibuzo.

Ngokomzekelo, ngasentla ndathi xa ixabiso liqale lihamba ngaphezulu kweepipu ezingama-30 kwicala elinye, kodwa ke litshintsha kwaye lihambisa iipips ezili-15 ngaphesheya kwelinye icala lexabiso le-8:30, ngoku siza kukhangela i-trade in this direction. Iipips eziyi-15 ziyisikhokelo nje kuba kunceda kubonisa ukuba ukukhawuleza kuye kwayitshintsha ngokupheleleyo. Oku kungabonakala ngaphambi kokuba intengo ihamba ngeepips ezili-15 ngaphaya kwexabiso le-8:30, okanye ngamanye amaxesha kungadinga ukunyuka kwesinye ukubonisa ukuba ukuguqulwa kwenzeka ngokwenene (umzekelo ukuba ixabiso lixhomekeka nje emva nangaphandle. oko kubaluleke, kungekhona i -15 ipips.

Ukuba ukuhamba kokuqala kwahla, kodwa ixabiso liye lenzeke kwaye lenza imizamo emininzi yokunyuka kodwa ayinakukwazi, kwaye emva koko ihamba ngokukhawuleza kwaye ibukhali ekugqibeleni, oko kuguqulwa. Ubungqina kufuneka kuthathe ixesha elide ... nokuba i-rally ingaphantsi kwexabiso le-8:30.

Ukurhweba isicwangciso eziliqela ngamaxesha kwaye uqonde ingcamango yezikhokelo. Oku kuya kwenza ukuba ulungelelanise ngakumbi, kwaye uya kukwazi ukulungelelanisa isicwangciso malunga naluphi na umqathango onokuphuhliswa ngexesha lorhweba emva kweNgxelo yeNFP.

Unokufumanisa ukuba phantsi kweemeko ezithile ixabiso elijoliswe kuyo alinakwenzeka ngokwenene ukuhamba kweemarike. Ngokuxhomekeke kwintengo yokungena, ithagethi ingaba yindlela yokuphuma kuyo, okanye ingaba yindoda ekhuselekileyo. Phinda uvumelane neemeko zemihla. Ukuba injongo ekujoliswe kuyo inokubonakala iphuma ngaphandle, sebenzisa umvuzo we-3: 1 endaweni yokujoliswe kuyo. Injongo kukubeka ithagethi kwindawo efanelekileyo kunye nengqiqo ngokusekelwe kwimiba kunye nokungazinzi. Inkqubo yokujoliswa kwengeniso inceda ukwenza oko, kodwa kuyisikhokelo kuphela kwaye kunokufuna ukutshintshwa kancane kwiimeko zelo suku.

ILizwi lokugqibela -Sebenza ngaphambi kokuShishino oluPhezulu

Ekubeni i-EUR / USD ayiyi kuyenza ngokufanayo nilandela yonke ingxelo ye-NFP, kuya kuthatha inzame ukukwazi ukubona ezi zikhululo zorhwebo zidlala, kwaye khawuleza ngokwaneleyo ukuba ungene kwaye ubathengise. Ziqhelise isicwangciso kwi-akhawunti ye-demo uze ubonise inzuzo (ikhefu) emva kokuthengisa ubuncinane i-5 NFP iingxelo, kuphela xa kufuneka uhlole ukuthengisa esi sicwangciso kunye nenkunzi yangempela.