Injongo "yokubamba iqela eliwelayo," licacile, kodwa iinjongo azikho. Ibinzana labathengisi abadumile lichaza umzamo wokwenza ilahleko kwi-equity ubambelele ngokukhawuleza inxalenye ebalulekileyo yexabiso layo ngokuzama ukuyithenga okanye kufuphi nendawo yayo ephantsi, ugcine ukubhala njengoko ivela kwakhona, ekugqibeleni yenza ilahleko zakho.
Yenye enye inguqu ye-homily yokuthengisa: "Musa ukulwa ne-tape." Iithayiphu zeTikiti ziphele, kodwa isiluleko sihlala kuso.
Ingcaciso emfutshane iya kuba "Ukuba imarike iyawa, ungacingi ukuba uyazi ukuba uza kubuya nini; ukuba imarike ikhula, ungacingi ukuba uyayazi ukuba uthengise ukufumana ubuninzi kwiingeniso."
Umzekelo woMlando woMbasa wokuBamba
Uphando kunye ne-newsletter ye-DailyFX iye yavelisa iNkcazo yeeNgcaciso zeSentiment (SSI). Isalathisi sithatha inani labathengisi be- forex abanezikhundla ezivulekileyo zombini kunye nefutshane kwiibini ezihlukeneyo zemali kwaye kubonisa umlinganiselo wokuma kwindawo emibini yenkxaso yemali, ingcamango yokuba inceda umfundi ukuba aqonde utshintsho kwimvakalelo ye-investor ngokubonisa utshintsho olunzulu ekuthengeni nasekuthengiseni iipateni.
Kwesinye isihlandlo, intengo ye-US ne-Canadian Dollar pair yabonisa ukwanda okunamandla nokukhawuleza. Njengoko ixabiso laqhubeka likhuphuka, i-SSI yabonisa ukuba abahwebi bebebhekisele ngokubhekiselele kuyo kwaye, njengoko kwenzeka, ukulahlekelwa iibhenki zabo. Ekugqibeleni, njengoko ixabiso laqhubeka linyuka abahwebi baqala ukuhamba kunye nomsebenzi.
Ngelo xesha, i-USD / i-CAD yaqala ukuwa kwexesha elide. Ngaphaya kwekhosi yesibili yokunyuka kwembini kunye nokuphindaphinda kwinqanaba lokuwa kwalo, abahwebi bazama "ukubamba iqela eliwelayo," kwaye kuzo zombini iziganeko, ummese wazigawula kakubi. Umthengisi ngamnye wokulahlekelwa ibheji wayexelwe ukuba kukho umthengisi osebenzayo (kwaye ngokuqhelekileyo "okhethekileyo") ukuqonda kwixesha elizayo lokwenziwa kwemarike.
I-Psychology Underlying These Axioms
I-Nobel Prize i-Psychologist uDaniel Kahnemann yamangaliswa yinto yokubamba iqela kunye kunye nomlobi wezimali waseWall Street Journal uJason Zweig wabhala incwadi malunga nayo (kunye nezinye izinto ezinxulumene nazo kwiindawo zokugweba nokwenza izigqibo). Le ncwadi ibizwa ngokuba "Ukucinga, Ukukhawuleza Nokukhawuleza." Yincwadi yonke umthengisi kufuneka afunde. Yintoni uKahnemann kunye neZweig ehlola ngayo ukucinga emva komtshali-mali okanye umkhohlakali ukuba uyakwazi ukubamba iqela eliwelayo - ngamanye amagama, ukuqikelela ukuba i-market iya kujika nini. Batsho oku kuluhlu lweziqhelo zabantu.
Okokuqala, phantse wonke umntu unomdla wokukholelwa ukuba unengqondo ekhethekileyo ebanika inzuzo phezu kwabanye. Okwesibini, kwiimeko ezibucayi ezibonakalayo ngokukhawuleza (imarike ewela ngokukhawuleza esiyi-invested in example example), sithemba ukuthembela kwiimfundiso zethu. Yinto eyahlukileyo yokulwa okanye impendulo yendiza. Xa silahlekelwa yimali ngokukhawuleza, siya kwindlela yokucinga ngokukhawuleza size silungiselele ukulwa. Siya kuba ngcono, uKahnemann ukhankanya, ngokunciphisa kwaye athathe ixesha lokuhlalutya nje kuphela imeko yemarike ebonakalayo kodwa impendulo yethu kuyo. Yintoni, ngokomzekelo, isenza sikholwe ukuba sinokubuya ngenye indlela esiye salahlekelwa yinto enye, ukuqhuba ngokuchanekileyo kworhwebo?
Ziyintoni imiphumo xa le nto iphumelela?
Okwesithathu, i-Kahnemann ihlola iminyaka engama-50 yokuziphatha kotyalo-mali kwaye iphetha ukuba imarike ayinakulinganiswa . Ngokuqhelekileyo asiboni oku. Enyanisweni, i-shishini lonke lezemali lithengiswa ngokuzimisela ukukholelwa ukuba nangona singenalo uhlobo oluphambili lokucinga olufunekayo ukukhupha i-market, sinokuqesha umntu ukuba asenze oko. Enyanisweni, njengengxelo yonyaka we-S & P ibonisa unyaka emva konyaka, abaninzi abaphathi-mali abaqeqeshiweyo bayaphumelela kakhulu kwimarike. Labo abagqithiseleyo kunyaka onikezelweyo abanakho ukukhawuleza ukulinganisa loo ntsebenzo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.