I-Monte Carlo imimiselo inika indlela yokuhlola umngcipheko
Ukufaniswa kweM Monte Carlo yokuthatha umhlalaphantsi kubandakanya izihlomelo ezinhlanu:
- Ubukhulu bePortfolio
- Ulwabiwo mali
- Ingeniso yonyaka ukuxothwa
- Ixabiso lokunyuka kwexabiso liza kusetshenziselwa kwingxowa-mali yokuhoxiswa
- Ixesha elide
Iimvavanyo zokulinganisa isiphumo ngokuhlanganiswa okunokwenzeka kwimivuzo yeepotfoliyo ekuqwalaseleni ezi ziguquko. Unokutshintsha ukuchitha imali, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ixesha lakho lokukhawuleza, kunye nokukhutshwa kwakho kwonyaka kwaye ubone ukuba oko kukuchaphazela njani amathuba okuphumelela.
Kutheni i-Monte Carlo Imimiselo ibalulekile kwiSicwangciso soMhlala-phantsi
Le mimiselo ibalulekile kuba awukwazi ukuba uza kubuya njani iipotfoliyo zakho zexesha elizayo. Ukujonga iinkcukacha zembali, unokubona ukuba ukubuyiselwa kwamasheya kunye nezibophelelo ziyakwazi ukuhluka kwixesha elingama-20 lokubuya kwexesha .
Unokulandela imodeli efanayo yokwabiwa njengomnye umhlala-phantsi oyeka ukusebenza ezintlanu okanye kwiminyaka elishumi ngaphambili okanye kamva kunokuba wenze okanye uzimisele. Uya kuba nesiphumo esihluke ngokupheleleyo, nangona wenza ukhetho olufanayo. Oku kubhekiselwa kwingozi yokulandelana .
I-Monte Carlo i-simulations ivavanya iziphumo zakho ngokudibanisa olubanzi lweembuyekezo zeemarike, kwaye zibeka impendulo ngokubhekiselele kwimeko enokwenzeka yokuphumelela. Injongo yokuthatha umhlalaphantsi kukuba nefuthe eliphezulu lempumelelo-yinjongo ehlukileyo kunokuba umntu omncinci ofuna ukuqokelela ubutyebi kunye ne-asethi.
Ininzi yesofthiwe yokucwangcisa imali esetyenziswe ngabaqeqeshi ifaka uhlobo oluthile lwe-Monte Carlo. Ungasebenzisa kwakhona ithuluzi le-intanethi njengaleyo eyenziwa yi-Flexible Retirement Planner mahhala.
Ukuqonda iMiphumo ye-Monte Carlo Simulation
Isofthiwe yokucwangcisa imali nge-Logix yezezezimali inikeza isilingo samahhala ukuze ufumane iinyawo zakho zimanzi kwaye ufunde oko kubandakanyekayo. Iquka uhlalutyo olubandakanya ezinye iinguqu, ezifana noKhuseleko loLuntu okanye imali yengeniso.
Le meko yokuvavanya ithatha oku kulandelayo:
- Iingxowa-mali ezingama-300,000 kwiingxelo ezingekho phantsi komhlala phantsi
- U-700,000 wama-investments kuma-akhawunti yomhlalaphantsi
- Iingxowa ezingama-80 000 ngonyaka weendleko zokuhlala (ezingabandakanyi irhafu) zonyuka ngama-3 ekhulwini ngonyaka ukuze zihambe ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso
- Isikhathi somhlala-phantsi ekupheleni kuka-2015 ukuya ku-2047
- Ulwabiwo-mali: ama-5 eepesenti yemali, iibhonti ze-55 zeepesenti, kunye ne-45 pesenti ye-stock index index
- Umhlala-phantsi wokulindela malunga ne-24,000 zamawaka ngonyaka kunye neentlalo ze-Social Security benefits malunga ne-$ 10,000 ngonyaka.
Iziphumo zibonisa ukuba lo mntu unepesenti ye-95 yepesenti yokuphumelela kokungenani ubuninzi bamaRandi angama-80,000 ngonyaka weengeniso-mali ehlaziywe ngemali ngonyaka we-2047.
Kuthiwani malunga neepesenti ezingama-5 zexesha apho isicwangciso siphumelele? Kule meko, kuthatha ukuba lo mntu akenzi utshintsho kwindlela yakhe yokuphila kwaye uyaqhubeka nokuchitha imali efanayo naleyo ayenzayo ngaphambi komhlalaphantsi.
Kubalulekile ukuvavanya rhoqo isicwangciso sakho emva kokuba uthathe umhlalaphantsi kuba unokukwazi ukubona kwangaphambili ukuba unako ukuhluleka kokwanda.
Isilumkiso sentela
Gcina ukhumbule ukuba ukuba uhoxisa i-$ 50,000 yeedola ezingama-80,000 kwii-akhawunti zakho zomhlala-phantsi kwaye usekhokheni lentela ye-25 yepesenti, ukuhoxiswa kwakho ngokugqithisileyo kuya kuba malunga ne-66 6677 nge $ 16,667 ezigcinwe kwiintlawulo zentlawulo. Imali eyi-50,000 yeeRandi yayiza kuwe.
Igama lokugqibela
Ukuba uhlangabezana nesimo esibi kakhulu seemeko zoqoqosho kwiminyaka yakho yokuthatha umhlalaphantsi, ungadinga ukwenza utshintsho kwimali yakho ukuqinisekisa ukuba imeko engaphumelekanga ye-5-pesenti ayikho okanye iyanda. Kunjengeemeko ezininzi zempilo, uya kuba nexesha lokulungisa isingxaki esincinci xa usifumana okokuqala. Ngamanye amaxesha kunzima ukuchonga ezi ngxaki ngaphandle kokuba uvavanyo olufanelekileyo luquka uhlobo oluthile lweMarlo Carlo.