Indlela Utyalo-mali Ongazange Uluve ngayo Ukusabalalisa I-Havoc Ngoqoqosho
Inkathazo yekhredithi iqalile.
Xa imbali yokugqibela yentlekele ibhaliwe, kusenokwenzeka ukuba siya kuba nombono ongcono ngokuchanekileyo.
Kodwa nangoku ngoku kubonakala ukuba kucace ukuba iimarike zeemarike zomhlaba wonke aziqalanga kakhulu kwiimakethe zentengo njengemakethi ye-CDO ka-2007.
Nguwuphi umThetho onyanzelekileyo weMatyala?
Ngoko ke, yintoni kanye, i-CDO? Kwaye kwenzeka njani ukuba i-American yakho engummiselo engazange ivele kwanamhlanje ibangela ingxaki enkulu kwezoqoqosho?
Kulula ukubuza le mibuzo kunokuba uphendule. Kodwa asizame.
Izibophelelo zetyala ezidibeneyo zadalwa ngowe-1987 ngababhanki kwi-Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. Ngeminyaka engama-10, i-CDO yayisisigqeba esikhulu kwiimarike ezivela kwiimveliso, apho ixabiso lexabiso elithathwe "livela" kwixabiso lezinye asethi. Kodwa ngokungafani nezinye iziphumo ezichanekileyo ezifana nezikhetho, iifowuni kunye ne- default swaps , ii-CDO zazingenakwenzeka ukuba umntu oqhelekileyo aqonde (hk, emuva xa ndenguye umhleli kwi-News Bloomberg, umphathi wam usikhokele kwiinkqutyana zeentlanganiso kunye nodonga Isitalato singenelo, kungenakuphumelela, ukufumana umntu ukuba achaze ngakumbi iikona zeemarike ezithathayo kuthi.)
Kwaye kwakukho ingxaki.
Ii-CDO zazingekho "zinyani." Bakha. Kwaye umntu unokuphikisa, beyakhela ekwakhiweni kwezinye izakhiwo.
Kwi-CDO, ibhanki yotyalo-mali iqokelele uchungechunge lwezinto eziphathekayo-ngokuqhelekileyo izibophelelo ezingenayo i-junk, izibambiso ezixhaswa ngemali-mboleko , i-swaps-default swaps kunye nezinye izinto ezinobungozi obuphezulu, ezivelisa isivuno-mali.
Ibhanki yotyalo-mali kwaye yakha isakhiwo senkampani-i-CDO-eya kuhambisa ukuhamba kwemali kwii-asethi kumashishini-mali kwi-CDO.
Oku kuzwakala kulula. Kodwa nakhu kubanjwa: ii-CDO zithengiswa njengotyalo-mali kunye nomngcipheko ocacileyo kunye nomvuzo. Ngamanye amagama, ukuba uthenge enye uyazazi ukuba ingaba yintoni inzuzo ongayilindela ngokutshintshisa ukubeka ingxowankulu yakho engozini. Ibhanki yotyalo-mali eyakha ii-CDO yabanikezela njengotyalo-mali apho izinto eziphambili azikho ixabiso eliphantsi. Kunoko, isitshixo kwii-CDO kwakusetyenziswa ukubala kweemathematika ukudala nokusabalalisa ukuhamba kwemali. Ngamanye amazwi, isiseko se-CDO sasingekho imali yokuboleka imali, isibophelelo okanye eso siphumo-oko kwakuyimetrikhi kunye nezilungiso zeempawu kunye nabahwebi. Ngokukodwa, imarike ye-CDO yanyuka ngo-2001 ngokuveliswa kwefomthi ebizwa ngokuthi i-Gaussian Copula, eyenza kube lula ukuhlawula amaxabiso ngama-CDO ngokukhawuleza.
Kodwa oko kwakubonakala kungamandla amakhulu e-CDOs - iifomula eziyinkimbinkimbi ezikhuselweyo ngengozi xa zivelisa ukubuyiswa okuphezulu - zagqitywa. Ngenxa yokuba ngokuphindaphindiweyo kwenzeka kwiWall Street, sifunde indlela ekhuselekileyo yokuba abantu abahlakaniphile kakhulu egumbini bahlala bebutyebi.
KwiNtaba yeNtaba
Ekuqaleni kuka-2007, iWall Street yaqala ukuvakalelwa kuqala kwihlabathi le-CDO. Ukungaphumeleli kwakukhulayo kwimakethi yokuboleka imali. Kwaye ii-CDO ezininzi ziquka izixhobo ezakhiwe kwiimali-mboleko-kuquka neengozi, iimali zokuthenga imali.
Abaphathi be-Hedge fund, iibhanki zentengiso kunye notyalo-mali, kunye neemali zempesheni, zonke ezo zazizithenga ezinkulu ze-CDO, zifumene ngokwasemngeni. Iimpahla ezingundoqo ze-CDO ziya ngaphantsi. Okubaluleke ngakumbi, imodeli yamatriki efunekayo ukukhusela abatyalo-mali kumngcipheko ayisebenzi.
Imiba enzima yayikukuba akukho marike ekuthengiseni ii-CDO. Ii-CDO azithengiswanga kwiintengiso. Ii-CDO aziklanyelwe ukuba zithengiswe nhlobo. Ukuba unayo kwipotfoliyo yakho, akukho nto ongayenza ukuze uyikhulule.
Abaphathi be-CDO babebopha efanayo.
Njengoko uloyiko lwaluqala ukusasazeka, i-market for the assets of the CDOs asethi yaqala ukutshabalalisa. Ngokukhawuleza kwakungeke kwenzeke ukulahla i-swaps, i-subprime-mortgage derivatives kunye nezinye iziqinisekiso ezigcinwe yi-CDOs.
Ukuwa
Ekuqaleni kuka-2008, inkathazo ye-CDO yayingene kwizinto esizibiza ngokuba yi-credit crisis.
Njengoko i-market ye-CDO yawa, ezininzi zeemarike ezithathayo zawa kunye nayo. Iingxowa zemali zenziwe. Ii-arhente zokulinganisa ngetyala, ezahluleka ukuxela iWall Street ngeengozi, zazibona izibizo zabo zonakaliswe kakhulu. Iibhanki kunye nezindlu zokurhweba zishiywe ukukhwela ukunyusa imali yazo.
Emva koko, ngo-Matshi 2008, kancinci ngaphezu konyaka emva kweempawu zokuqala zenkxalabo kwimakethi ye-CDO, into engacatshulwayo yenzeke. I-Bear Stearns, enye yeefowuni ezinkulu kunye neyona ndlela ihloniphekileyo yaseWall Street, yawa.
Ekugqibeleni, ukuwa kwetyala kwasasazeka kangangokuba iinkampani zomshuwalense ezinxulumene nazo zinomlinganiselo wokunciphisa i-credit (ukudala enye inkathazo kwiimarike ezibophelelweyo); Abalawuli belizwe baphoqeleka utshintsho kwindlela ehlawulwe ngayo, kwaye abanye abadlali abakhulu kwiimarike zematyala bancitshitshitshitshitshitshi babo kwishishini okanye baphuma umdlalo ngokupheleleyo.
Phakathi ko-2008, kwacaca ukuba akukho mntu uphephile. Njengoko uthuli luhleli, abaphicothi-zincwadi baqala ukuhlola umonakalo. Kwaye kwacaca ukuba wonk 'ubani - nokuba abo babengakaze batyalwe nantoni na - babeza kuhlawula ixabiso.