I-Tapering kunye neMiphumo Yalo kwiPortfolio yakho
IiBhanki eziMbindi Qala kuTape
I-US Federal Reserve yaqalisa ukutshintshela iphetshana layo le-balance sheet ngo-Oktobha ka-2017 ene-$ 4 yezigidigidi ngenyanga ngenyanga yokubanjwa kwayo. Ukubanjwa kwebhanki enkulu yezo zibambiso zithatha ixesha elide elingama-1.78 trillion ngo-Meyi ka-2017. NgoJanuwari ngo-2018, ibhanki ephakathi iceba ukunyuka kwi-$ 8 yezigidi ngenyanga kwaye ekugqibeleni iyayiphakamisa ukuya phezulu Iibhiliyoni eziyi-20 ngenyanga ngenyanga ka-Oktobha ka-2018.
EYurophu, uMongameli wase- European Central Bank (ECB) uMongameli Mario Draghi wamemezela ngoSeptemba ka-2017 ukuba iBhunga Elilawulayo liza kuthatha isigqibo sokuba ingaba yi-€ 60 yezigidigidi ngenyanga ngenyanga kwinyanga elandelayo. I-Euro Area yexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso lifike kuma-1.5 ekhulwini ngo-Agasti nakwaSeptemba, ehlala phantsi kwe-bhanki yebhanki yekota ejoliswe kwipesenti kodwa ibingcono kunokuba abaninzi bezoqoqosho babekulindele.
I-Bhanki yaseJapan (BOJ) isiqalile ukunciphisa ukuthengwa kweekhonkco kwixesha eliqhelekileyo elingama-¥ 50 trillion (i-R3 443 billion), ephantsi kwesibambiso sayo sokungafihli ukugcina i-80 yenkulungwane.
Ngokungafani ne-Federal Reserve, i-BOJ ayithandi ukuvakalisa izicwangciso zayo ngaphambi kwexesha ngokwemigangatho ekhonkco, oko kuthetha ukuba i-marhwebo ihlala ifumana utshintsho emva kwe-inyaniso. Abalawuli balindele ukufikelela kwi-2% yexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngo-2019.
Iimiphumo ze-Tapering kwi-Assets
Ukunciphisa ukulinganiswa yindlela entsha eyenziwa yibhanki eziphambili ngexesha leengxaki zemali zango-2008, oko kuthetha ukuba akukho mlando wembali weempembelelo zengxelo.
Kodwa kwiingcamango, ukunciphisa ukuthengwa kwee-asethi kuya kunciphisa ixabiso elibanzi kunye nokunciphisa imfuno kuya kubangela intengo ephantsi, kuthathwa ukuba yonke into ibanjwe ilingana. Umbuzo omkhulu ngumlinganiselo wexabiso lokunciphisa.
Igalelo leNkqubo ye-Federal Reserve ye-easing easing i-120-based reduction point in bonds of bonds in 2013 eyanciphisa izinga lokungabikho kwemisebenzi ngamaphesenti angu-1,25 kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngama-0.5 eepesenti. Ngelo xesha, uphando lubonisa ukuba le nkqubo inokunyusa amaxabiso angamaxabiso ase-US ngama-11 ukuya kwe-15 kwaye iyanciphise izinga lokutshintshiselana kwe dollar nge-4.5 ukuya kwi-5 ekhulwini.
Iindaba ezilungileyo kubatyalomali kukuba ukucwangcisa le nkqubo ayiyi kuguqula ngokupheleleyo loo nto. Umlinganiselo we-tapering uncinci kuncinci kwinqanaba lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ngelixa iibhanki eziphambili zeebhanki ziza kuhlala zikhulu kunaphakade ngaphambi kokuba kubekho ingxaki. Ibhanki ephambili sele iqiniseke ngokucacileyo ukucwangcisa izicwangciso zayo ukuphepha "i-Taper Tantrum" eyenzeka ngo-2013, oko kuthetha ukuba i-tapering isele ixabiso lentengiso.
Isicwangciso sokuHlaba abaTyalo-mali
Igalelo le-tapering global lilindeleke ukuba libe lilungelelaniso kusasa, kodwa abatyali-mali bangakwazi ukuhlawula iibhenki zabo ngokusebenzisa iindlela ezahlukeneyo.
Isicwangciso esisodwa kukuqinisekisa ukuba iphothifoliyo yakho ihambelana ngokufanelekileyo, eyanceda ukunciphisa imiphumo yokupakisha kuyo nayiphi na imarike. Ngokomzekelo, iTantrum ye-Taper ka-2013 yabangela ukuhla kwehla kwixabiso lentengo yexabiso likaNondyebo kunye ne-spike ebukhali kwizivuno. Imiphumo yayiyixeshana kuphela, kodwa abatyalo-mali abaye bahlukana kwezinye iiklasi ze-asethi ezingenakunqwenela ezifana nezibophelelo zenkampani okanye izibopheko zoshishino ezikhulayo ziza kuba zininzi.
Abatyalomali banakho ukuhlawula iiphothifoliyo zabo ngokubhekiselele ekunciphiseni ukusetyenziswa kokukhetha okanye ezinye izixhobo zemali. Ngokomzekelo, umtyalomali angathenga ixesha elide ubeka i-S & P 500 ukuba bakholelwa ukuba imarike isengozini ngomnyaka ozayo ukusuka kwimisebenzi yokuthayipha. Ezi ziza kufumana inzuzo kwixabiso xa i-S & P 500 ihamba isezantsi, enokukunceda ukucima nayiphi na ilahleko kwizikhundla zesikhundla eside.
Ekugqibeleni, abatyali-mali bangabonakalisa ukuhlengahlengiswa kwabo ngeniso ngokusebenzisa i-ladders yezibophelelo, ezisetyenziselwa ukulawula umngcipheko wezinga lomyinge. Indlela elula yokufikelela kwiibhanki zamanqanaba ukuba awukho umnini-mveliso ophezulu onetyala lokuthenga imali-mali ukuthenga i-EFs ye-bond edibeneyo yee-bond exchange (e-ETFs) ebambe iipotifoliyo eyahlukeneyo yeebhondi eziye zanyathela ixesha elide kunye nezivuno.
Ngaphantsi
Abatyalomali bamazwe ngamazwe kufuneka baqonde ukuba ezininzi zeebhanki eziphambili zehlabathi ziqala ukuthengwa kwee-asethi. Ngoxa i-tapering ayiyi kuguqula ngokupheleleyo i-gains eveliswa ngokunciphisa okwehliswayo, kunokubakho ukunyanzeliswa kokunciphisa ukuhla kwexabiso kwixabiso lempahla, kuxhomekeke kwisixa se-tapering. Olunye uqoqosho lungaba mngciphekweni ngakumbi kunokuba abanye banikwe ukungafani ngendlela abachazela ngayo izicwangciso zokucoca.