Nangona ezi zintlanu zibonwa njengamazwe esengozini esheshayo yokungagqibekanga kwinqanaba leengxaki ngo-2010-2011, le nkathazo ineempembelelo ezide kakhulu ezidlula ngaphaya kwemida yazo kwihlabathi lonke.
Enyanisweni, intloko yeBhanki yaseNgilani ibhekisele kuyo ngokuthi "yeyona nkxalabo yezemali ubuncinci ukususela nge-1930, ukuba kungenjalo," ngo-Oktobha 2011.
Ingxaki yaqala njani?
Uqoqosho lwehlabathi luye lwalukhula ngokukhawuleza ukususela ngoxinzelelo lwezezimali lwe-US ka-2008 ukuya ku -9, oluye lwaveza imigaqo-nkqubo engahlawulwanga yemali yelizwe laseYurophu nakwihlabathi lonke. IGrisi, esetyenzisileyo iminyaka kwaye ingaphumeleli ukwenza utshintsho lwezemali, yayingomnye wokuqala ukuva ukhula lokukhula okubuthathaka. Xa ukukhula kuphuculwa, ngoko ke imali engenayo-ingeniso-mali ephezulu engenakugcinwa. Isiphumo sokuba iNdunankulu entsha uGeorge Papandreou, ngasekupheleni kuka-2009, yaphoqelelwa ukuba ibhengeze ukuba oorhulumente bangaphambili baye bahluleka ukutyhila ubungakanani beentsilelo zelizwe. Enyanisweni, amatyala eGrisi ayekhulu kakhulu kangangokuba ngokugqithiseleyo adlula ubukhulu boqoqosho lonke lohlanga, kwaye ilizwe alikwazanga ukufihla ingxaki.
Abatyalomali basabela ngokufuna izivuno eziphezulu kwiibhanki zaseGrisi, eziphakamisa iindleko zomthwalo wetyala lelizwe kwaye zenze ukuba kubekho uchungechunge lwezibonelelo zokubambisa i-European Union kunye ne-European Central Bank (ECB). Iimarike nazo zaqala ukuqhuba izivuno ezibanjelwe kwezinye iindawo ezinomdla kakhulu kuloo ndawo, zilindele iingxaki ezifana nezo kwenzeka eGrisi.
Kutheni iimbopheleleko zivelisa ngokuphendula kulo hlobo lwenkathazo, kwaye ziziphi iimpembelelo?
Isizathu sokwanda kwezibhambathiso zilula: ukuba abatyali-mali babona umngcipheko ophezulu onxulumene nokutyalomali kwiibhondi zelizwe, baya kufuna ukubuyisela okuphezulu ukuhlawulela loo mngcipheko. Oku kuqalisa umjikelo onobuqili: imfuno yezivuno eziphezulu zilingana neendleko eziphezulu ezibolekayo kwilizwe elijongene neengxaki, ezikhokelela ekuqhubeni phambili kwezemali, okubangela ukuba abatyali-mali bafune ivuno eziphezulu, njalo njalo. Ukulahlekelwa ngokubanzi kweentembelo zentengiso kubangele ukuba ukuthengisa kungathinteli nje ilizwe elikulo mbuzo, kodwa nakwamanye amazwe aneemali ezibuthathaka ezifanayo-umphumo obizwa ngokuthi "ukusuleleka."
Yintoni oorhulumente baseYurophu abayenzayo malunga neengxaki?
IYurophu YaseYurophu ithathe inyathelo, kodwa iye yahamba ngokukhawuleza kuba ifuna imvume yazo zonke iintlanga kwimanyano. Inkqubo yokuqala yamanyathelo ngoku sele iluhlu lwezinto zokuxhamla kwiindawo zezoqoqosho zaseYurophu. Ngentwasahlobo, ngo-2010, xa iYurophu YaseYurophu kunye neNgxowa-mali yeMali yeSizwe yachitha i-euro ezigidi ezili-110 (elilingana ne-163 billion) ukuya eGrisi. IGrisi ifuna ukuxhaswa kwesibini phakathi no-2011, ngeli xesha libiza malunga ne-157 billion yezigidigidi.
Ngomhla ka-9 Matshi 2012, iGrisi kunye nabathengi bayo bavunyelwene nokulungiswa kwetyala ebeka isigaba esinye isondlo semali yokuxhaswa. I-Ireland kunye nePortugal nazo zafumana ukufumana imali, ngoNovemba 2010 nangama-Meyi 2011, ngokulandelanayo. Amazwe ase-Eurozone adala i-European Ease-Stability Facility (EFSF) ukubonelela ngokukhawuleza ukuboleka kumazwe ekubunzima kwezemali.
I-European Central Bank nayo yabandakanyeka. I-ECB yamemezela isicwangciso, ngo-Agasti 2011, ukuthenga izibophelelo zikaRhulumente ukuba kuyimfuneko ukuze kugcinwe izivuno ukusuka ekuhambeni ukuya kumazinga anjengeItali naseSpeyin ayengakwazi ukufumana. NgoDisemba 2011, i-ECB yenza i-€ 489 (i-$ 639 billion) ngekhredithi ekhoyo kwiibhanki ezikhathazayo zommandla kwizinga eliphezulu eziphantsi, emva koko zilandelelwa ngekota yesibili ngoFebruwari 2012. Igama leprogram yi-Long Term Refinancing Operation okanye i-LTRO .
Amaziko amaninzi eemali ayenamatyala azayo ngenxa ka-2012, ebangela ukuba babambelele kwiindawo zabo zokugcina indawo kunokuba bandise imali. Ukukhula kancinci kwemali mboleko, kwakhona, kunokulinganisa ukukhula koqoqosho kwaye kwandisa ingxaki. Ngenxa yoko, i-ECB ifuna ukukhulisa iibhanki zamaphepha-bhanki ukuze zincede ukuphazamisa lo mbandela.
Nangona izenzo ze-European policymaker zivame ukunceda ukuzinzisa iimarike zezemali ngexesha elifutshane, zazigxeka kakhulu nje ngokuba "ukukhaba i-down down road" okanye ukuhlehlisa isisombululo sangempela kumhla ozayo. Ukongezelela, umcimbi omkhulu ugqityiweyo: ngelixa amazwe amancinci afana neGreece amancinci okwaneleyo ukuba asindiswe yi-European Central Bank, e-Italy naseSpeyin zikhulu kakhulu ukuba zingasindiswa. Umoya owonakalisayo wempilo yezemali yamazwe, ngoko ke, umbandela ophambili kwiimarike kumanqaku athile ngo-2010, ngo-2011, no-2012.
Ngo-2012, ingxaki yafikelela ekuguqukeni xa uMongameli waseBurkey Central Bank, uMarcus Draghi, wathi i-ECB iya kwenza "nantoni na eyenzayo" ukugcina i-eurozone ndawonye. Amakethi ajikeleze ihlabathi ngokukhawuleza athengisa kwiindaba, kwaye ukuvelisa kumazwe aseYurophu akhathazekile kwawa ngamandla ngeli qingatha lesibini lonyaka. (Gcina ukhumbule, amaxabiso kunye nezivuno zihambelana nezikhokelo ezingafaniyo.) Nangona ingxelo kaDraghi ayizange isombulule ingxaki, yenza ukuba abatyali-mali bathuthuke ngakumbi ukuthenga izibophelelo zeentlanga ezincinane zommandla. Izivuno eziphantsi, zithengise ixesha lokuba amazwe aphakamileyo amatyala ahlangabezane nemiba yabo ebanzi.
Iyintoni imeko yangoku yentlekele?
Namhlanje, isivuno kwiYurophu sinamatyala amanqanaba aphantsi kakhulu. Izivuno eziphezulu zika-2010-2012 zenza abathengi kwiimarike ezifana neSpain ne-Itali, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokuzisa izivuno. Nangona oku kubonisa ukuthuthuzeleka komtyalo-mali ngokuthatha umngcipheko wokutyalomali kwiimarike ezibophezelekileyo zommandla, ubunzima buhlala kwiindlela zokukhula kancinci kwezoqoqosho kunye nomngcipheko okhulayo ukuba iYurophu iya kugxotha ukungena kwi- deflation . I-Central Central Bank yaseYurophu iphendule ngokutshatyalaliswa kweerhafu zemali, kwaye ibonakala kwindlela yokuqalisa inkqubo yokunciphisa imilinganiselo efana neyasetyenziswa yi- US Federal Reserve e-United States.
Kutheni ukungazange kubekho ingxaki enkulu? Ayikwazanga ukuba ilizwe lihambe nje kwiimali zalo kwaye liqale lutsha?
Ngelishwa, isisombululo asikho esilula kwisinye isizathu esibalulekileyo: iibhanki zaseYurophu zihlala zingenye yezona zikhulu zibanini bomatyala karhulumente, nangona zanciphisa izikhundla zabo kwisahlulo sesibini se-2011. Ibhanki kufuneka ukuba igcine inani elithile lexabiso iibhatsheli zabo zokulinganisela ngokumalunga nomyinge wabo matyala. Ukuba ilizwe lifezekisa ityala layo, ukubaluleka kweebhanki zayo kuya kugxotha. Kwiibhanki, oku kungathetha ukunciphisa okubalulekileyo kwinani lexabiso kwi-bhanti yabo-kunye nokungenakwenzeka. Ngenxa yokungahambelani kokukhula kwenkqubo yezemali yehlabathi, ukungaphumeleli kwebhanki akukwenzeki kwi-vacuum. Kunoko, kunokwenzeka ukuba uchungechunge lwee-bhathaka zebhanki luya kutshatyalaliswa kwingozi "yokunyanga" okanye "i-domino effect".
Umzekelo omhle weli ngxaki yezemali yase-US xa uluhlu lwezinto eziye zahlukana ngamaziko amancinci zezemali ekugqibeleni lukhokelela ekungabikho kweLehman Brothers kunye noorhulumente okanye ukunyanzeliswa kwamanye amazwe. Ekubeni uorhulumente waseYurophu sele esalwa neengxaki zemali, kunokuba lukhulu ulungelelaniso lukaRhulumente olu lwaloo ngxaki xa kuthelekiswa nalowo owawubetha eMelika.
Iingxaki zemali zeYurophu ziye zachaphazela njani iimarike zezemali?
Ubungakanani bokuba nomthendeleko luye lwabangela ukuba i-European debt crisis ibaluleke kakhulu kwiimarike zezimali zehlabathi kwixesha le-2010-2012. Ngomngcipheko weemarike ka-2008 kunye no-2009 kwimemori ekhoyo nje, iimpendulo zabathengi kwiindaba ezimbi ezivela eYurophu zikhawuleza: zithengisa nayiphi na ingozi, kwaye zithenga iibhondi zikaburhulumenteni ezikhulu kunazo zonke, kumazwe aninzi aphilileyo. Ngokuqhelekileyo, iimali zebhanki zaseYurophu - kunye neemarike zaseYurophu ngokubanzi-zenza kakubi kakhulu kunezinye ihlabathi phakathi kwamaxesha apho ubunzima bebukhulu besigaba. Iimarike ezimanyeneyo zeentlanga ezichaphazelekayo nazo zenze kakubi, njengoko ukunyuka kwezivuno kuthetha ukuba amaxabiso awela. Ngexesha elifanayo, ukuvelisa kwiiNondyebo zase-US kwawa ngamazinga aphantsi asemgangathweni ekubonakalisweni kootyalo-mali " kwinqaba ."
Emva kokuba iDraghi ivakalise ukuzinikela kwe-ECB ekulondolozeni i-eurozone, iimarike zithengiswa kwihlabathi jikelele. Ibhondi kunye neemakethi zokulingana kummandla sele zibuye zibuye zibuyele, kodwa ummandla uya kufuna ukubonisa ukukhula okuqhubekayo ukwenzela ukuba i-rally iqhubeke.
Ziziphi iingxaki zezopolitiko ezibandakanyekayo?
Impembelelo yezopolitiko yentlekele yayininzi. Kwiintlanga ezichaphazelekayo, ukunyuka kwiindawo ezinqamlekileyo-okanye ukunciphisa iindleko zokunciphisa i-gap phakathi kwemali kunye nokugqithiswa-kubangele imibhikisho yombutho eGrisi naseSpain kwaye ekukhutshweni kweqela elilawulayo e-Italy nasePortugal. Kwinqanaba likazwelonke, ingxaki yabangela ukungqinelana phakathi kwamazwe aphilileyo, njengeJamani, kunye namazwe aphezulu anetyala njengeGrisi. IJamani yanyusa iGrisi namanye amazwe achaphazelekayo ukuba ahlaziye uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali njengemeko yokubonelela ngoncedo, okukhokelela ekubambiseni okuphezulu kwi-European Union. Emva kwempikiswano enkulu, iGrisi ekugqibeleni yavuma ukunciphisa imali kunye nokunyusa irhafu. Nangona kunjalo, umqobo obalulekileyo ekujonganeni neengxaki kwakungekho ukungafuneki kweJamani ukuvumelanisa nesisombululo sendawo yonke kuba bekuya kuhamba ngeepesenti ezingenakubalwa kwebhili.
Ukuxhatshazwa kwenzelwe ukuba enye okanye amazwe angaphezulu aseYurophu ekugqibeleni ayishiya i-euro (imimandla eyimfuneko yesizwe). Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukushiya i-euro iya kuvumela ilizwe ukuba liphishekele ipolisi yalo elizimeleyo kunokuba ibe phantsi komgaqo-nkqubo oqhelekileyo kwiintlanga ezili-17 ezisebenzisa imali. Kodwa kwelinye, kuya kuba ngumcimbi wexabiso elingakaze libe lizwe kwezoqoqosho nakwiimarike zezezimali. Le nkxalabo ibangele ukuba ubuthathaka kwixesha le-euro ngokubhekiselele kwezinye iindleko ezinkulu zehlabathi ngexesha lexesha leengxaki.
Ingaba kuhlaziywa kwemali impendulo?
Akunjalo. Ukuxhaswa kweJamani ukuxhamla (intela ephezulu kunye nokusetyenziswa kwezantsi) amanyathelo kwiintlanga ezincinci zengingqi yayinengxaki kwiinkcitho zorhulumente ezincinci zingakhokelela ekukhuleni okucothayo, oku kuthetha ukuhlawula kwexabiso elincinci kumazwe ukuhlawula iindleko. Ngaloo ndlela, oku kwenza kube nzima nakwiizwe eziphakamileyo zeetyala ukuzibamba. Ithemba lokunciphisa iindleko zorhulumente lenze ukuba kubekho imibhikisho ebanzi kwaye yenza kube nzima kubaphathi-nkqubo ukuba bathathe onke amanyathelo afanelekileyo ukulungisa ingxaki. Ukongezelela, ummandla wonke wancincika ngo-2012 ngenxa yokuba inxalenye yale miqathango kunye nokulahlekelwa ngokupheleleyo kwentembeko phakathi kwamashishini kunye nabatyalomali.
Ukusuka kwimbono ebanzi, ngaba le nto i-United States?
Ewe-Inkqubo yezemali yehlabathi ixhomekeke ngokupheleleyo ngoku-ithetha ingxaki eGrisi, okanye elinye ilizwe elincinci laseYurophu liyingxaki sonke. Iingxaki zemali zeYurophu ayithinteli kuphela iimarike zezimali kodwa kunye nohlahlo lwabiwo-mali lukaRhulumente wase-US. Ipesenti ezingama-40 ze-International Monetary Fund (IMF) ivela kwi-United States, ngoko ke ukuba i-IMF inokwenza imali eninzi kwimigqaliselo yokubaluleka, abahlawuli berhafu be-US baya kugqitywa ukuhamba ngeyilwayo. Ukongezelela, ityala le-US likhula ngokukhawuleza-lithetha ukuba iziganeko zaseGrisi nakwiYurophu yonke ingumqondiso wezilumkiso kubangomthetho base-US.
Yintoni imbono yeengxaki?
Nangona ithuba lokungagqibekanga okanye ukuphuma kwelinye lamazwe aseYurophu liphantsi kakhulu kunokuba lusekuqaleni kuka-2011, ingxaki ebalulekileyo kwingingqi (ityala lekarhulumente eliphezulu) lihlala likhona. Ngenxa yoko, ithuba lokutshatyalaliswa koqoqosho oluqhubekayo kummandla - kunye noqoqosho lwehlabathi lonke-kusekhona kwaye kuya kwenzeka ukuba lihlale iminyaka emininzi.