Amasheya Vs. Bond
Kwiminyaka elishumi (ephela ngoSeptemba 30, 2014), i-S & P 500 - umlinganiselo wokwenziwa kweenkampani ezinkulu zase-US - ezibhaliswe ngokuphindaphindiweyo ngonyaka we-8.11%.
Xa kuthelekiswa, i-market bond bond market, njengoko iboniswe yi-Barclays Iqoqo le-US Bond Index , inokubuyiselwa kweminyaka eyi-4.62%. Iimali zeeBond nazo zingaphantsi kwee-stock market-market, eziphakanyisiweyo ezingama-6.32% ngonyaka, kunye nama-stock market, abuyele kwi-10.68% ngonyaka.
Nangona ama-stocks sele asebenze kangcono iminyaka engama-10 kunamabhonkco, kubalulekile ukugcina engqondweni ukuba izibophelelo zinikeza ukungafani kunye nokuba ubukho bhondi buyakunceda ukukhawuleza ukutshatyalaliswa kwemarike yemasheya. Kwakhona, kukho ixesha elongezelelweyo apho iimpahla ezigqityiweyo zesikhwama - njengokuba kunjalo ngo-2000-2002.
Iinqununu zeMakethe yeeMveliso zeBond, eziNyaka ezili-10
Enye yeendlela eziqhelekileyo zokutyalomali kukuba umngcipheko omkhulu ulingana nokubuyiswa kwexesha elide. Iziphumo zeminyaka eyi-10 zithwala oku, njengoko iigqeba zeemarike ezithengayo zihamba ngeemarike ezikhulayo , ezinokubuyiselwa kweminyaka engama-9.28%, kunye nezibophelelo eziphezulu , ezibuyiselwe kuma-8.67%.
Bobabini bagqiba phambi kwe-S & P 500 - nangemva kokufumana i-stock 32% + ngo-2013 - kunye ne-market bond.
Ngezantsi zingamaqela amanqaku asemakethi ayenzayo kakhulu kwiminyaka eyi-10, kunye nekhonkco ebalulekileyo kunye neentengiso ze-stock ukuthelekisa.
- Uhlawulo oluphezulu 7.98%
- IiMakethe eziPhakamileyo 7.78%
- Iibhondi zeMelika zexesha elide 6.97%
- Iimali zeeRhulumente zikaRhulumente wexesha elide 6.78%
- Utyalomali-iBakala Corporates (onke amanqanaba) 5.49%
- IBarclays I-US Yogcino-Bond Index Index 4.62%
- I-S & P 500 Index 8.11%
Iinqununu zeMakethe zeBond Market, 5 iminyaka
Iminyaka emihlanu edluleyo yenze ixesha lokuphucula iimeko zezoqoqosho , ukwanda kwandlela-thile kubanini-mali bokufuna umngcipheko, ukuphucula i-income income kunye ne-rally ebanzi kwimigangatho yase-US. Kuye kwaholela ekugqibeleni kwamacandelo eemarike ezimanyeneyo ezithintekayo kwiimeko zezoqoqosho: izibophelelo eziphezulu, ukubolekwa kwemali mboleko kunye netyala lemeko elikhulayo. Xa ukhangela la manani, kubalulekile ukugcina engqondweni ukuba la manani ngokuqinisekileyo ayiyi kuphinda iphindwe kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo:
- IiMakethe eziPhakamileyo 10.70%
- Uhlawulo oluphezulu 10.36%
- Utyalomali-iBakala Corporates (onke amanqanaba) 10.57%
- Iibhondi zexesha elide 8.69%
- Iimali zeeKota zexesha elide 6.99%
- IBarclays I-US edidiyelweyo yeBond Index 7.12%
- I-S & P 500 Index 15.70%
Qaphela: Iimali ezineminyaka emihlanu yeemali zikhulile kakhulu kwiinyanga ezilishumi elinesibini ezidlulileyo, njengoko isigaba esibi kunazo zonke zonyaka we-2007-2008 weengxaki zemali asisabandakanywa kwiminyaka emihlanu ekhoyo. Cinga olu bungqina bokuba nokuba nenani lexesha elide lokusebenza lingaba lahlekisa .
Iinqununu zeMakethe yeeMveliso zeBond, eziyiminyaka emithathu
Ixesha eliyiminyaka emithathu lifana neminyaka emihlanu kunye neyeshumi kwiminyaka yokuba ihlawulwe ukuba ithathe ingozi njengezibophelelo kunye nobutyebi obuphezulu kwiimeko zemboleko- isivuno esiphezulu kunye neemarike ezikhulayo-zenze kakuhle kakhulu.
Qaphela kwakhona, ukuba izibophelelo zexesha elide nazo zenziwe kakuhle. Oku kubangelwa ukulahla okubukhali kwimveliso yezibophelelo ezenzeke ngo-2011-2012, ngoko ke le ntlawulo ayinakwenzeka kwakhona. Ukongeza, igalelo lohambo lwe-2011-2012 ngokukhawuleza luza ku "gqithisa umva wokugqibela" wexesha leminyaka emithathu yokusebenza, ngoko ke ezi zigaba zingasayi kubakho uluhlu lweentlobo eziphezulu zintlanu ngasekupheleni kuka-2014.
- Uhlawulo oluphezulu 10.62%
- Iibhondi zexesha elide 6.85%
- IMali yeMatriki 6.66%
- Utyalomali-iBakala Corporates (onke amanqanaba) 5.47%
- IiMakethe eziPhakamileyo 5.03%
- IBarclays I-US Ahlanganisiwe Bond Index 2.43%
- I-S & P 500 Index 22.99%
I-Takeaway
Kuyinyani ukuba izinto ezichasayo zomthetho kwiincwadana zotyalo-mali zisoloko zithi: ukusebenza kwangaphambili akukho nhlobo isiqinisekiso seempembelelo ezizayo. Nangona kunjalo, ezi zibalo zibuye zixelele izinto ezintathu. 1) abatyali-mali bexesha elide akufanele bathuke ukuthatha ingozi, 2) ukugcina utyalo-mali kwixesha elide linokuphelisa impembelelo yeyona ntengiso embi kakhulu (njengaleyo eyenzeka kwizibambiso kunye nezibophelelo eziphezulu kwi-2008) , kunye no-3), iibhondi zingadlala indima ebalulekileyo kwixesha elide lokwakheka kweepotifoliyo.
Gcina ingqondweni njengoko uwakha iphothifoliyo yakho yokutshala imali.
* Ama-Indices asetyenziswayo: i-US enkulu enkulu yeenkampani: I-S & P 500, iinkampani ezincinane zase-US: uRussell 2000 Index, i- stock market-based market: MSCI EAFE, iimpahla zentengiso ekhulayo: I-MSCI eziPhakamileyo zeMakethe, izibopheko zoshishino ezikhulayo: JP Morgan EMI Global Index, Diversified Index Ukubophelela izibophelelo: I-Credit Suisse High Yield Index, ii-bond zaseburhulumenteni zexesha elide zase-US: Barclays Urhulumente wase-US Index ephezulu, ii-bond zaseburhulumenteni zexesha elide zase-US: I-Barclays I-Long Cash Investment Index Index, I-TIPS: I-Barclays I-US TIPS Index, izibophelelwano zenkampani - zonke iziphumo: i-Barclays I-Index ye-Investment Index, iMatyala yeMatriki: I-S & P / LSTA Inkcazo yeMboleko yokuThengiswa, iMithwalo kaMasipala : I-Barclays Municipal Bond Index.
Ukuziphendulela : Ulwazi olukule ndawo lunikezelwa ngeenjongo zengxoxo kuphela, kwaye akufanele lithathwe njengengcebiso-mali. Ngaphandle kweemeko ngaba le nkcazelo ibonisa isincomo sokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa iziqinisekiso. Soloko ubonisana nomcebisi-mali kunye neengcali zerhafu ngaphambi kokuba utyale.