Uphuhliso loQoqosho kunye nefuthe lalo kwiiNondyebo
Makhe sibone kuqala kwiiNondyebo zase-US , kuba leyo yindawo yemarike yeebhondi echaphazelekayo ngokuthe ngqo kuqoqosho. Indlela efanelekileyo yokuqonda ubudlelwane phakathi koqoqosho kunye nezibophelelo kukucinga ngemilinganiselo yemigangatho njengendleko yemali.
Xa uqoqosho luzinzile, imfuno yemali iphezulu, kuba umsebenzi omkhulu uthetha ukuba kukho imfuno enkulu yemali yokuxhasa iiprojekthi. Imfuno ephakamileyo, kwakhona, iqhuba iindleko - kule meko, inzala.
Ukongezelela, ukwanda koqoqosho oluzinzileyo kwenza ukuba umthamo wexabiso uphumelele - ubuncinci kwimfundiso. I- Federal Federal Reserve ("i-Fed"), kwakhona, inokuthi ikhulise amazinga omdla wokulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso . Yaye xa iirhafu zexesha elifutshane lilindeleke ukuba zikhuphuke, iirhafu zexesha elide zilandelwa.
Isiphumo soNondyebo kukuba ukukhula okunamandla kubangelwa ukuveliswa okuphezulu kunye namaxabiso aphantsi (ekubeni amaxabiso kunye nezivuno zihamba ngendlela echaseneyo ).
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukukhula kancinci kwezoqoqosho kuyanciphisa imfuno yemali ukususela kubantu ngabanye kwaye amashishini awanakwenzeka ukuba athathe imali-mboleko yokuxhasa iiprojekthi kunye nokuthenga. Imfuno emncinci yokuboleka imali ithetha amanani-kulo mzekelo, inzala yenzalo - iwa ngohlobo.
Kwakhona, ukukhula okubuthathaka kuthetha ukuba iFed iyakwazi ukunciphisa amaxabiso athatshane okuxhasa uqoqosho. Ngenxa yoko, ixesha elide leNondyebo livelisa xa kukhula ukukhula koqoqosho kubuthathaka.
Impembelelo yokuThuthukiswa koKhula kwezinye iCandelo leMakethe yeBond
Nangona yonke imimandla yemarike yeebhanki ekugqibeleni ithatha ingqalelo kwiiNondyebo - kuba, ngokuchanekileyo okanye ngenye indlela, iibhondi zaseburhulumenteni zase-US zibonwa njengotyalo- mali olukhuselekileyo kwihlabathi kwaye ngoko ke isiseko salo lonke imarike - iintlobo ezithile zeekhonkco zithatha ukuze uzuze ekukhuleni okunamandla, kunokuba ungenzakali.
Ngokuqhelekileyo, le mimandla inobungozi obuphezulu beemveliso, izibophelelo zeemarike ezikhulayo , kunye nezibophelelwano eziphantsi. Kutheni oku?
Okokuqala, izivuno zabo ziphakamileyo ngokwaneleyo kangangokuba ukuthobeka kwintsimi kwiNondyebo kunomthelela omncinci kwintsebenzo yabo. Ngokomzekelo, ukuba uNondyebo we-10 weminyaka unika i-2.0%, ukhuseleko oluxhaswa ngemali kunye nesivuno se-2.5% (i-0.5% ye-gap-point point) lichaphazeleka kunomlinganiselo ongaphezu kwe-bond-bond-corporate-bond bond 8.5% (i-pipeline-6.5 percent-point point).
Okwesibini, izibophelelo zeenkampani kunye neemarike ezikhulayo ezorhwebo ngokusekelwe kumandla abo. Oku bhetele ama-sheetshi, iimali zokulinganisela imali, kunye nemigangatho yezoshishino ezingaphantsi, okungekho mfuneko yokuba ziyikho (okungukuthi, ulahlekelwa intlawulo yenqununu okanye inzala). Kwaye kuncinci amathuba okuba angagqibekanga, abahlawuli bezityalo abaphantsi baya kufuna ukuba bahlawule umngcipheko wokutshala imali kulolo khuseleko.
Ngenxa yoko, ngelixa ukukhula koqoqosho oluzinzileyo kunokuba yinto engathintekiyo kwiiNondyebo, kunokwenzeka ukuba kunokwenzeka ukuba ibe yinto enobungqina obuphezulu bokuzibophelela apho umniki-mboleko wokubaluleka kweyona nto iphambili kubaxhasi-mali. Oku kunceda ukuba ityala lizathu lokuba kutheni abatyali-mali bafanele bahluke kunokuba bagxininise nakweyiphi enye inxalenye yemarike yemboleko.
Ngezantsi ziphumo zecandelo elincinci leemarike zeekhonkco ezimanyeneyo kwimimandla yezoqoqosho ezisuka ngoJanuwari 1, 1994, ngo-Matshi 31, 2012, ngokweDeutsche Bank. Oku kunceda ukuba kukho ukukhula okuqinileyo kunokunyanzelela ukubuyiswa kwezibhanki zikarhulumente, kubangele ukuba kube negalelo elihle kumaqumrhu asemakethi aphezulu:
Ukukhula kweGDP kwe-US ngaphantsi kwama-0%
- Iibhondi zikaRhulumente wase-US: 10.82%
- GNMA: 8.96%
- Ibhanti yebhanki yamashishini: 2.94%
- Izibhondi zikaMasipala: 3.56%
- Izibopheko zemarike ezivela: -2.12%
- Izibophelelo ezivunyiweyo eziphezulu: -12.13%
Ukukhula kweGDP 0% -2%
- Amashishini karhulumente karhulumente: i-7.04%
- GNMA: 6.67%
- Ibhanti yebhanki yebhanki: 7.49%
- Izibophelelwano zikamasipala: 5.97%
- Izibopheko zemarike ezivelayo: 9.86%
- Izibophelelo ezivunyiweyo eziphezulu: 5.00%:
Ukukhula kweGDP 2% -4%
- Iibhondi zikaRhulumente wase-US: 6.29%
- GNMA: 6.98%
- Iibhanki zamashishini ekutyalomali: 9.02%
- Iibhondi zikaMasipala: 7.14%
- Izibopheko zemarike ezivelayo: 14.63%
- Izibophelelo ezivunyiweyo eziphezulu: 11.57%
Ukukhula kweGDP kwi-4%
- Amashishini karhulumente karhulumente: 3.35%
- GNMA: 4.91%
- Iibhanki zamashishini otyalo-mali: 4.35%
- Iibhondi zikaMasipala: 3.79%
- Izibopheko zemarike ezikhulayo: 14.27%
- Izibophelelo ezivunyiweyo eziphezulu: 7.59%