Xa iindawo eziphakamileyo ezizalisekileyo zibophelela ngokuqhelekileyo ukwenza kakuhle?
Ukukhula koqoqosho oluqinileyo : Nangona iibhondi zebhlomali-mali zingaphenduli kakuhle ngokukhula ngamandla (ekubeni ingakhulisa ixabiso lemali-mali, kubangela ukuba amaxabiso aphakame kunye namaxabiso ahlanganisiweyo awele), uqoqosho oluzinzileyo luhlangene nokuvunwa okuphezulu. Ekubeni iqela le-asethi lihlala lenkampani ezincinci kunye nalabo abaneemali ezibuthakathaka kunomtshini-mali oqeshisayo, uqoqosho olunamandla lukhokelela ekuphuculeni impilo yezemali kwiinkampani ezivunayo. Oku kwenza ukuba bancitshiswe ngokungagqibekanga kwiimbopheleleko zabo, oko kukubakho okulungileyo kumaxabiso abo-kunye neentlawulo zabathengi.
Le tshathi, ukusuka kwi-database yaseSt. Louis Fed (FRED), ibonisa ukungaphumelelwanga kwemveliso ephezulu ngexesha lokunyusa kunye namandla ayo enxulumene namaxesha okwandiswa.
Ukulindela okungezantsi okanye ukuwa okungekhoyo: Ireyithi ephezulu yokuvelisa isivuno, okanye ipesenteji zabathengi abangaphumeleli ukwenza inzala okanye iintlawulo eziyinhloko kwiibhondi zabo, kukuqwalasela okubalulekileyo kwimarike evunayo.
Ixabiso elisezantsi, ngokucacileyo, lilungele umva weemarike. Oku ngaphezu kwezinga langoku, nangona kunjalo, imbambano ebaluleke kakhulu yintoni abatyala-mali abayilindeleyo ngokumalunga nokulinganiswa kwexesha elizayo. Ngamanye amagama, ukuba izinga lokungagqibekanga liphantsi ngoku kodwa lilindeleke ukuba likhuphuke kunyaka ozayo, oluya kuba yintonga yokusebenza.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izinga eliphezulu lokungalindelekanga ngokulindeleke ukuphuculwa ngokuqhelekileyo lihle.
Abatyalomali bangakwazi ukulandelela ukuphuhliswa kwezi phambili ngokulandela isihloko kwiimali zeendaba. Umthombo omhle womxholo ohlanganisiweyo kwisivuno esiphezulu kukutya kweendaba eziphezulu ze- ETF ezifana ne-iShares High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (i-HYG), engabonwa apha. Ireyiti yamanani angagqibekanga (ngokukhawuleza ngo-2012, angahlaziywa) iyafumaneka apha.
I-optimist investor optimism : Izibophelelo eziphezulu zintengo yexabiso eliphezulu , oku kuthetha ukuba bathambekele ekuthandeni xa abatyali-mali bathemba ithemba kodwa bahlupheka xa abatyali-zimali bekhula bexhala baze bafune indawo ekhuselekileyo . Oku kubonakaliswa kwimbuyekezo engalunganga yezibophelelo eziphezulu kwi-2002, xa bebuya -1.5% phakathi kwebhola ye-dot.com, kwaye ngo-2008, xa bechitha -26.2% ngexesha leengxaki zemali. Ngaloo mvo, isivuno esiphezulu sithatha ukulandelela amasitya ngokubanzi ngakumbi kunobungozi bebakala lotyalo-mali.
Faka enye indlela, into enhle kwiitokisi zilungile ukuvunwa okuphezulu.
Ngaphezulu-isivuno sesantya-mboleko sisasazeka : Izibophelelo eziphezulu ezivunyiweyo zivandlakanywe ngesiseko " sokuvelisa isivuno " malunga noovimba boNondyebo, okanye ngamanye amazwi, abatyala-mali abongezelelweyo bahlawulwa ngokuthatha ingozi eyongeziweyo.
Xa ukusasazeka kukuphakamileyo, kubonisa ukuba i-asethi yeklasi iyabandezeleka kwaye ineklasi elongezelelweyo lokuxabisa (kungekhona ukukhankanya ukuba ngumntu "onguchwepheshe".) Ngokwahlukileyo, ukusabalala okuphantsi kubonisa ukuba akukho nto ingaphantsi kwayo - kunye nomngcipheko omkhulu.
Umzekelo oqaqambile wenziwa ngo-2008. Ukuzaliswa kwandala kwagqitywa kwaphela ixesha eliphezulu phezu kooNondyebo - njengoko kuboniswe apha - ekujuleni kweengxaki zemali. Umtyalo-mali osebenzise le nto uza kuxhamla kwi-59% yokubuyiswa kwezibophelelo ezithe xaxa ngo-2009. Ngomgca ofanayo, ukusabalaliswa kwe-record-low ye-1996-1997 kwaxela kwangethuba ixesha elide lokubuyiselwa kwemali kwi-1998-2002.
Isibalulekileyo, njengokuba kunjalo, kukujonga amathuba xa iklasi ye-asethi ingaphantsi kwexesha xa ibeka iinombolo zokubuya ezikhethekileyo.
Impembelelo yokuHlahla nokuHlala kwamaRhafu
Abanye abafundi banokumangaliswa kukuba le ngxoxo ayifumanga ukunyakaza kwimivuzo ekhoyo ngoku. Isizathu salokhu kukuba izibophelelo eziphezulu zivame ukungabi ncamango kwizinga lokujonga ngaphezu kweendawo ezininzi zeemarike ezimanyeneyo. Kuyinyaniso ukuba xa izivuno zihamba ngokugqithiseleyo phezulu okanye ezantsi, izibophelelo eziphezulu ziza kuhamba ngokuhamba. Nangona kunjalo, ukunyuka kweemveliso ezithobekileyo akudingeki ukuba uqikelele isivuno esiphezulu, kuba ukukhula kweemveliso kwiimarike rhoqo kubangelwa ukuphucula ukukhula koqoqosho - oku njengoko kuphawuliwe ngasentla, kukuhle kwinqanaba le-asethi. Enyanisweni, izibophelelo eziphezulu zokuthengisa ziye zahambelana ngokuthe ngqo kunye neempahla ezinokuba zinaloo mabhondi-mali-bakala ngokwexesha-oko kuthetha ukuba ngoko banokuthi bangenye yezona zikhetho ezifanelekileyo kwixesha lokunyuka kwamazinga.
Oko okusixelelayo malunga neNtengo ephezulu
Kuba abatyalomali babecinga iimbophelelo ezivunyiweyo eziphezulu, iimbali ezichazwe ngentla kufuneka zibalise ibali elibalulekileyo: ngelixa izibophelelo eziphezulu zivelisa ukungafani kwipotifoliyo enamathele kakhulu kumabhonkco ebakala lokutshala imali, banikezela ngokungafani kangako umntu otyalo-mali kwiimpahla. Umba ukhankanywe ngeenkcukacha ezicacileyo kwinqaku lam, Ukusebenzisa iibhanki eziphezulu zokuzaliswa kweDissification.
Ngaphantsi
Izibophelelo eziphezulu zentsebenzo zenza okulungileyo xa ukukhula kweempawu kulungile, abatyali-mali banokuzithemba, kwaye ukungafezeki kuphantsi okanye kwehla, kwaye ukuvelisa ukuvelisa kunika indawo yokuxabisa okongeziweyo, ngoxa zivakala xa zichasene xa kunjalo. Nangona abatyali-mali kufuneka bahlale becinga izigqibo ngokusekelwe kwiinjongo zabo zexesha elide kunye nokunyamezela ingozi , le miba inokunika ingqiqo yexesha xa kunengqiqo enkulu yokuthenga izibophelelo eziphezulu.
Funda okunye : Unobungozi obuphezulu obuthatyathwa ngaphaya kwexesha?
Ukuziphendulela : Ulwazi olukule ndawo lunikezelwa ngeenjongo zengxoxo kuphela, kwaye akufanele lithathwe njengengcebiso-mali. Ngaphandle kweemeko ngaba le nkcazelo ibonisa isincomo sokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa iziqinisekiso. Soloko ubonisana nomcebisi-mali kunye neengcali zerhafu ngaphambi kokuba utyale.