Impembelelo yeBond Default Rates
Ngokuqhelekileyo, izinga eliphakamileyo eliphezulu okanye eliphakamayo liyinto engafanelekanga ekwenzeni umgangatho wexabiso, ngelixa ixabiso eliphantsi okanye eliwela phantsi lixhasa ukuxhasa ukusebenza. Iimilinganiselo ezingapheliyo zihlala ziphezulu kwixesha loxinzelelo lwezoqoqosho, kwaye liphantsi kumaxesha apho uqoqosho luqinile. Isilinganiso esingapheliyo sithatha ingqalelo kubatyalomali kumashishini kamasipala, udidi lokutshala imali , i -yield-yield , kunye nezibopheko zoshishino ezikhulayo , kodwa akufanelekanga kwiimali zorhwebo zase-US ekubeni akukho nto inokuthi urhulumente wesigqeba uza kuhlawula ityala lakhe - - kwiminyaka engaphezu kwama-200, ayinakho.
I-Impidence yeBond Defaults
Nangona i-default engummangaliso kwintengo yebhondi ngamnye, ngokungaqhelekanga ngokuqhelekileyo kukho iziganeko ezinqabileyo kwiziqinisekiso eziphezulu kakhulu. Ungakwazi ukufikelela kwiinkcukacha zembali kwizinga elizimeleyo lokuvelisa isivuno kwi-ejensi yokulinganisa i- Standard & Poor 's here.
Le ndawo ukususela ngo-2012, equle i-treasure trove yedatha eqala ngo-1981, inika ingqiqo kwimeko yokungagqibekanga kwibakala lotyalo-mali kunye nomvuno ophezulu (mhlawumbi uyaziwa ngokuba yi-"junk"). Kufanelekile ukuthatha isikhashana ukutshekisha iitshathi kunye neetafile ukuze ufunde kabanzi malunga neendlela ezingafaniyo, kodwa ezinye iindawo zokuhamba eziphawulekayo zilandelayo:
- Iimilinganiselo ezizenzekelayo ziye zaphantsi kakhulu kwiimarike zentsebenziswano yebhanki kwixesha, ubunzima be-1.47% yimiba evelele kwiminyaka engama-32 ubudala. Iibhanti zamabhanti ezitshalomali ezenziweyo kwizinga elingu-0.10% ngonyaka, ngelixa umlinganiselo ongagqibekanga we-bakala-mali-phantsi (isivuno esiphezulu) izibophelelo zi-4.22%.
- Ubuninzi beziphene ezenzeke phakathi kwabanikezeli abaphantsi kakhulu. Umyinge weminyaka engama-31 yemali ebhalisiweyo i-AAA (ixabiso eliphezulu) kunye ne-AA yayingu-0.0% kunye no-0.2%, ngokulandelanayo. Ngokomlinganiselo, izinga lokungagqibekanga phakathi kwabanikezeli be-B abalinganisiwe (okwesibini esiphantsi) bekuyi-4.28%, kodwa kwi-tier ephantsi, iCCC / C, izinga elingagqibekanga lingama-26,85%.
- Ngomda osezantsi, uninzi lweziphene eziphambili zilandelwa zilahla kwi- credit rating rating .
- Izibhanki zikaMasipala ziye zabonisa izinga eliphantsi lokungagqibekanga, kwaye njengokuba kunjalo kwinqanaba lequmrhu, amaninzi okungafezeki ayenzeka phakathi kwamasheya aphantsi kakhulu kwi candelo. Ngokutsho kweFmsbonds.inc. , "Kwizibophelelo ezingagqibekanga, imbangela enkulu, ngokutsho kukaMoody's, 'yingozi yoshishino.' Olu mngcipheko lubangelwa ukuhluleka kweprojekthi exhaswe ngebhondi ukuphumeza iziphumo zayo ezicetywayo ngenxa yokucwangcisa okungeyiyo okanye ukuhla kwezoqoqosho, ukunika iprojekthi ingenakwenzeka. "
UkuPhepha okungafaniyo kweBond
Kule ngxelo yophando lweemarike, kuyacaca ukuba abatyali-mali banokuthi banciphise ukutyhila kwabo ngokungagqibekanga ngokutyalomali kwi-AAA okanye nge-AA ezilinganisiweyo kwiibhanki okanye kwiimali ezibophelelweyo ezigxininisa kwezi ziqinisekiso eziphezulu.
Nangona kunjalo, umtyalo-mali ophethe izibophelelo okanye iimali zebhondi eziphephe ngokupheleleyo ukungafihlisiyo zisenokuba ngumngcipheko wezinga lomyinge - kwaye ke ungakhuseli ukulahlekelwa yinqununu ukuba uthengiswe ngaphambi kokukhula.