Imakethe yeBond njenge-Forecaster yeemeko zoQoqosho
Isizathu salokhu kukuba abathathi-nxaxheba bemarike balindele ikusasa ekwenzeni izigqibo zotyalo-mali, ngoko nawaphi na amanqaku amanani eemarike abonakalisa, okanye "nciphise" ukulindela kokulindelekileyo kwezinto ezizayo.
Iimarike ezibopheleleyo, ezixhomekeke kakhulu kulindeleke ukukhula koqoqosho kwezoqoqosho kunye nefuthe layo kumgangatho wentsingiselo yentsingiselo, ngoko kubonakala ngathi igosa lokuba uqoqosho luyakwenza njani kunyaka ozayo.
Oku akuthethi ukuba i-market market bond is always right. Nangona kunjalo, utyalo-zimali-njengabantu-njengabakwiqela-ngokuqhelekileyo kubonwa njengokuba "yimali ehlakaniphile" kwaye abaxhomekeke kuncinci uhlobo lokubaluleka okubonwe kwiimpahla okanye izinto eziphathekayo. Ngenxa yoko, iibhondi zineenkcukacha ezibonakalayo ezinamandla njengendlela yokucwangcisa imeko yezoqoqosho, kwaye ngenxa yoko, zihlala zisetyenzisiwe ngabacwangcisi njengezikhokelo ezikhokelayo. Ukuba akukho nto, i-market market ye-bond inganika umlinganiselo wokulindela kokubaluleka ngokubhekiselele koqoqosho nakwiyiphi na into enikezelweyo-nangona ukuba kulindeleke ngezinye iinkalo ukungalunganga.
Ukusebenzisa iCode Curve ukubikezela uQoqosho
Ngalokhu njengemvelaphi, indlela efanelekileyo yokusebenzisa izibophelelo zokuqikelela uqoqosho kukujonga i- curve isivuno .
"I-curve isivuno" yinto nje kuphela isivuno kwizibophelelo zeempawu ezihlukeneyo (ngokuqhelekileyo ukusuka kwiinyanga ezintathu ukuya kwi-30) zicwangciswe kwigrafu ngokusekelwe kwizivuno zazo. I-curve yesivuno ngokuqhelekileyo iyakhuphuka phezulu, kuba abatyali-zimali bafuna isivuno esiphezulu kwiimbopheleleko zexesha elide.
Ekubeni izivuno zokubambisa zonke iimeko eziguqulwayo ziguqula imihla ngemihla ngenxa yokunyuka kweemarike, "ukuma" kweso sivuno sithengiso - kwaye ezi nguqu zinika ingqiqo kumbono wezoqoqosho.
Nasi isizathu: ukusebenza kweebhondi zexesha elifutshane (abo abaneemfuno ezimbini kwiminyaka emibini okanye ngaphantsi) kuthintela ngqo ngokulindelwe malunga nomgaqo-nkqubo weSigungu soMgaqo-nkqubo weSigqeba ngokubhekiselele kwizinga leemali ze-federal . Ngokwahlukileyo, ukusebenza kweebhondi zexesha elide-ezinokuthi zinyanzelise ngaphezu kohlobo lwabafutshane bexesha elide - luqhutyelwa kakhulu ngombono wokunyuka kwamaxabiso nokukhula koqoqosho kunokuba umgaqo-nkqubo we-Fed.
Umbandela obalulekileyo wobudlelwane ukuqonda ukuba ngelixa i-short-term yield "ikhonkxiwe" kwinqanaba elithile ngokulindela umgaqo-nkqubo we-Fed, iibhondi zexesha elide zinokungabi nenyameko oluphezulu ngokusekelwe kwiinguqu kwimibono ebanzi. Iinduliso zoqoqosho, ngoko ke zivame ukuba nefuthe elinamandla kumlo wekhava .
Nantsi indlela ukuma kwe-curve isivuno ingashintsha ngayo: xa izivuno kwiibhondi zexesha elide zikhula ngokukhawuleza kunezo zibophelelo zexesha elifutshane (ezibonisa ukuba izibophelelo zangexesha elide zingaphantsi kwexesha elifutshane). . "Oku kubonisa ngokukodwa indawo apho abatyala-mali babona ukukhula okunamandla ngaphambili. (Gcina ingqalelo, amaxabiso kunye nezivuno zihamba kwindlela echaseneyo .)
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, xa izivuno kwiibhondi zexesha elifutshane zikhula ngokukhawuleza kunezivuno kwiibhondi zexesha elide (okanye ngamanye amazwi, iibhondi zexesha elifutshane zingaphantsi), i- curve isivuno kuthiwa "iphosa." ngokuqhelekileyo kubonisa ukuba abatyala-mali babona ukukhula okucothayo.
Ngezihlandlo ezingaqhelekanga, i-curve isivuno sinokuthi "iguqulwe" -ukuthi izibophelelo zexesha elifutshane zivelisa ngokugqithiseleyo kunezibophelelo zexesha elide. Xa kunjalo, kubonisa ukuba abatyali-mali babone amathuba amakhulu ekunciphisa umnotho-okanye mhlawumbi ubunzima-ngaphambili.
Isishwankathelo, isivalence somvuno esiphezulu okanye esiphezulu sibonakaliso lwezinto ezilindelekileyo zokuphucula ukukhula; Ikhefu elivunyiweyo-elincinci-okanye ukuthoba-luphawu lokulindela ukukhula.
Ichanekile njani iCode Curve njengeSalathisi esiPhambili?
Ukufumana ingcamango yembali yesigqirha somvuno njengesiqhelo seemeko zoqoqosho, sinokuya kwiphepha le-2006 elibizwa ngokuthi "I-Curve Yi-Yi-Indicator EyiNtloko: Iingxaki ezithile," ebhalwe nguArturo Estrella noMary R. Trubin kwiBhanki yaseStar Reserve yaseNew York.
Kule ngqungquthela, ababhali bathi: "Ukususela kuma-1980, uncwadi oluninzi luye lwaphuhliswa ekuxhaseni i-curve isivuno njengengqiqo enokwethenjelwa yokunikezelwa kwemisebenzi kunye noqoqosho oluzayo ngokubanzi ngokubanzi. Enyanisweni, uphando luye lwadibanisa umthamo wendlela yokuvelisa kwiinguqu zeGDP, ukusetyenziswa, ukuveliswa kwemveliso yoshishino kunye notyalo-mali. "Nangona kunjalo, baqaphela ukuba" Nangona uhlalutyo oluphambili lujolise ekubhaliseni ubudlelwane bembali, ukusetyenziswa kwendlela yokuvuna Isixhobo sokubikezela ngexesha langempela liphakamisa imiba eninzi engacwangciswanga ngokucacileyo ... I-slope ye-curve isivuno kufuneka ichazwe njani? Yimiphi imilinganiselo yomsebenzi wezoqoqosho kufuneka isetyenziswe ukuvavanya amandla okulandelelana kwekharityhulam? Uhlobo oluthile lweendlela zokuvelisa nokutolika iziphumo zengqungquthela yezivuno zingakhokelela ekuhambeni okungafaniyo kwesignali ngexesha langempela. "
Xa uthethile oku, kufuneka kuphawulwe ukuba i-curve isivinini esivumbileyo inike izibonakaliso ezinamandla ngaphezu kwexesha. Enyanisweni, nganye yeendlela zokugqibela eziyisixhenxe zokugqibela ziye zaphambi kwekhava elichasiweyo.
Izizathu Zemiqondiso Yamanga
Esinye isizathu sokuba isivuno somvuno asinakuhlala sichanekile, ngakumbi namhlanje, kukuba indima yomgaqo-nkqubo we- US Federal Reserve ibaluleke kunanini ngaphambili. Ngenxa yoko, ukunyuka kweemarike kaninzi kuyiphendule kwimibandela ejikelezayo kwimiba efana neprogram yokuthengwa kwebhondi eyaziwa ngokuba ngumncinci wokunciphisa ukwedlula ukubonakaliswa kokulindela ukukhula. Nangona iimeko zoqoqosho ngokuqinisekileyo ziyaqhubeka nokudlala indima enkulu, inokuqhuba, abatyali-mali kufuneka baqaphele ekusebenziseni ukuthengiswa kwemali-mboleko yokubamba izigqibo ezinzima malunga noqoqosho kuze kube yilapho iFed iqala ukubuyela kwinxaxheba yendabuko kwezoqoqosho.
I-curve yesivuno nayo inokuchaphazeleka yinqanaba labafakela ingozi. Ngokomzekelo, xa abatyali-mali bekhula bexhala kwaye batyelela " uhambo oluya kumgangatho " kude nezinto ezinobungozi obuphezulu, izibophelelo zexesha elide ziza kubakho i-rally (kubangela ukuba i-curve isivuno idibene). Kule meko, ukuma kwekhava yevuno kuyashintsha, kodwa utshintsho alukwazi ukuba luhambelana ngqo nombono wezoqoqosho.
Ngaphantsi
Sebenzisa i-curve isivuno njengesixhobo, kodwa qaphela ukuba inokunika ubungqina bobuxoki. Njengazo zonke iimpahla eziphathekayo ngokuzikhethela, iibhondi zingatshintshwa ngumgaqo-bhanki oyintloko, iimvakalelo zentengiso kunye nezinye izinto ezingenakunqunywa . Ngoko gcina iliso kwi-curve - nje thabatha iimpawu zalo ngotya lwesonka.