Isikhokelo sokusebenzisa iikholeji ezithengayo kwi-Top Down Analytics
Uluhlu Luni Lwemveliso?
Uninzi lwabatyalomali bacinga ukuba iirhafu ezifutshane kunye nexesha elide lihamba kwinqanaba elifanayo kodwa akusoloko kunjalo.
Iifom zentshukumo zexesha elifutshane zibekwa ngamabhanki aphakathi . Ngokomzekelo, iKomidi ye-Federal Reserve ye-Open Market, okanye i-FOMC, ibeka isantya semali ye-federal engumlinganiselo werhafu yexesha elifutshane. Iibhanki zorhwebo zingabhaleka imali engenamkhawulo kwiimali zenzalo kwaye ezidala umgangatho weemarike. Injongo yokuxhaphaza iifom zentsholongwane yesikhashana kukukhuthaza okanye ukupholisa ukukhula koqoqosho.
Iirhafu zentsholongwane zangexesha elide zimiselwa yimikhosi yemarike. Ezi zenzalo zenzalo zisekelwe kwiimarike ezilindelekileyo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso emali. Umzekelo, iirhafu zexesha elifutshane ezibekwe phantsi kakhulu zingakhokelela ekulindeni kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezayo kunye nokunyuka kwamazinga omdla wesikhathi eside. Ngoko ke kukho iziganeko apho ireyiti zentsingiselo zesikhashana ziza kuwela kwaye ixabiso lentlalo elide liza kunyuka ukuba i-marhwebo icinga ukuba iirhafu ezifutshane zisezantsi.
I-curve yesivuno yenziwe ngokucwangcisa ixabiso lentengo-okanye i- bond bond- kwiintlobo ezihlukahlukeneyo. Ngokomzekelo, i-curve isivuno singabandakanya inyanga-1, inyanga-3, inyanga-6, inyanga-9, unyaka-1, unyaka-3, oneminyaka emi-5 ubudala, oneminyaka eli-10 ubudala, oneminyaka engama-20 kunye neminyaka engama-30. Ubhonkco buvelisa kwixesha elinikeziweyo. I-slope kunye nesimo se-curve isivuno sixelela abanye abatyali-mali ngombuso weemarike kwinqanaba elithile ngexesha-kubandakanywa ulwazi olunokuba luncedo lokuqikelela.
Ukubikezela iiMarike zeMarike
Inqanaba elifanelekileyo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso libonakaliso oluphilileyo lwezoqoqosho kunye neerhafu zentsholongwane zesikhathi eside zibonisa apho imarike ilindele ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kube ngaphezu kwexesha elide.
I-curve yesivuno ebonisa ukuba inzala iya kwanda ngaphezu kweminyaka emibini elandelayo ithetha ukuba ungathanda ukuqwalasela ukunyuka kokwabiwa kweenkampani ezinjengezinto ezinokuzithengisa, enikezelwe ukuphakanyiswa kwezoqoqosho. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-curve isivuno esichazela ukuba inzala yenzalo iya kuncipha kule minyaka emibini elandelayo ithetha ukuba unokufuna ukucwangcisa imali-mali ekhuselekileyo, njengabaxhamli bokuthenga .
Iingcingo zengqolowa ezingenayo-okanye i-curved yield curves-ziphakathi kwezona zibonakaliso eziqhelekileyo zokuhlaselwa kwemali okanye ukuhla koqoqosho. Ngokomzekelo, ngoDisemba ka-2017, ukukhula okunamandla kwezoqoqosho kunye nokungabikho kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kuye kwabangela ukuba i-curve isivuno idibeneyo, ekhokelela kubahlalutyi abaninzi abafuna ukuhla kwezomnotho kuhamba ngo-2018. Nangona ukuhamba kusengaphambili, kwaye akukho mntu uyazi izinto eziqhelekileyo ziya kuhlala.
Ukuvelisa iifowuni kuye kwaba nzima kunzima ukuyisebenzisa ngenxa yeenjongo zokuqikelela ukususela ekuhlaleni kwezomnotho . Ngamazinga omdla kwiirekhodi zokurekhoda, iirhafu zentsholongwane zexesha elifutshane azikwazi ukunciphisa kakhulu, oko kuthetha ukuba i-curve isivuno ilawulwa kuphela ngeemveliso zesikhathi eside eziqhutywa yiimarike.
Ezi zilindeleke zeemakethe zithatha ukutshintsha ngakumbi nangakumbi ngokuxhomekeke koqoqosho, okwenza ukuba iziganeko zesikhathi esizayo zibe nzima.
Iingcebiso kubaTyalo-mali bamazwe ngamazwe
Iingqungquthela zomvuno wehlabathi jikelele yindlela enhle yokuba abatyala-mali basemaphandleni behlabathi basemgangathweni baxelele ukusebenza koqoqosho kunye nokufumana amathuba otyalo-mali.
Kwimeko yeemarike ezikhulayo kunye neemakethe zendawo , kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba ukuthengiswa kweebhondi kunokuxhomekeka kwizinto zangaphandle. Umzekelo omkhulu wawuya kuba uqoqosho oluxhomekeke kumandla okuthumela ngaphandle kwamandla okukhula, okunciphisa amandla okuvelisa iirveve ukuchaza kwangaphambili apho uqoqosho luhamba ngaphaya kwezinto ezilindeleke kwiimarike zamandla. Olunye uqoqosho luxhomekeka kubaxhamli okanye nakwiimali zangaphandle njenge-dollar yase-US.
Kwakhona kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba isivuno semifuno kufuneka sibe yinxalenye enye yeqhinga lokukhuthaza.
Amaxesha amaninzi, ukuvelisa iirveve zisetyenziswe ngexesha lokuhlalutya phezulu kwamathuba otyalo-mali. Abatyalomali banokunciphisa amanqanaba amacandelo anokuncedisa amaninzi kwimilinganiselo yentsingiselo ngaphambi kokudlulela kwizinto ezisemgangathweni zala macandelo aze akhangele kwiimpahla ezivela ngaphandle, i- American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), okanye i - ETFs).