Ikhefu elivunyiweyo lomvuno lingabonisa ukukhula kancinci kwezoqoqosho
I-Curve yeNtengo: Ukuphononongwa
I-curve isivuno sivuno sesibhondi ngasinye kunye nebala lokukhula eliqulunqwe kwigrafu.
Inika umfanekiso ocacileyo, obonwayo wexesha elide kunye ne-short-term bonds kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo ngexesha.
I-curve yesivuno ngokuqhelekileyo iqhubela phezulu ngenxa yokuba abatyali-mali bafuna ukuhlawulwa ngesivuno esiphezulu ngokuthatha ingozi eyongeziweyo yokutyalomali kwiimbobo ezide . Gcina ukhumbule ukuba ukunyuka kwamabhondi kuvelisa amaxabiso okuwa kunye nokunye.
I-curve isivuno esicacileyo ibonisa ukuba akukho nto, uma kukho, umehluko phakathi kwexesha elifutshane kunye nexesha elide lee-bonds kunye namanqaku omgangatho ofanayo.
Ulawulo oluqhelekileyo lwentengo yemvuno kwimeko yendawo enomdla inokulinganiswa ngokuthelekisa izivuno kwimibandela emibili kunye neminyaka eyi-10, kodwa umahluko phakathi kwentlawulo ye - federal kunye nenqaku eli-10 leminyaka lisetyenziswa rhoqo.
Yintoni evelisa ikharve?
Ingcamango engundoqo yesikhephe sokuvelisa isivuno sihle kakhulu. I- curve isivuno i- flattens-oko kukuthi, kubonakala kuncinci-xahluko phakathi kokuveliswa kwezibophelelo zexesha elifutshane kunye nezivuno kwiibhondi zexesha elide liyehla.
Nasi umzekelo. Makhe sithi inqaku leminyaka emibili li-2.00 ekhulwini ngoJan 2, kwaye inqaku le-10 leminyaka li-3.00 ekhulwini ngeli xesha. Ngomhla kaFebruwari 1, inqaku leminyaka emibili livelisa i-2.10 yeepesenti ngelixa i-10-year yields 3.05 percent. Ukwahlukana ukusuka kwi-1 pesenti ukuya kuma-0.95 amaphesenti amaphuzu, okukhokelela kwindwangu yokuvunwa kwemveliso.
Kutheni Kuthetha ukuba iRave Curve Flatten?
I-curve yield yield curve ingabonisa ukuba ukulindela kwexabiso elizayo lizayo. Abatyalomali bafuna ixabiso elide elide elide lokwenza ixabiso elilahlekileyo ngenxa yokuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunciphisa ixabiso elizayo lotyalo-mali. Le premium iyancipha xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kungancinci.
I-curve yield yield curve nayo iyakwenzeka ngokulindela ukukhula kancinci kwezoqoqosho . Ngamanye amaxesha i-curve igxotha xa ixabiso elifutshane liphakama ngokulindela ukuba i-Federal Reserve izakuphakamisa inzala .
Yiyiphi i-Curved Curse Curve?
Ngezihlandlo ezingaqhelekanga xa i-curve isivuno igxininisa kwinqanaba elifutshane elide lide kunezinga elide elide, i-curve kuthiwa "iguqulwe." Ngokomlando, ijika eliguquguqukileyo lidla ngokuphambi kwexesha lokunciphisa. Abatyalomali baya kunyamezela amanqanaba aphantsi ngoku ukuba bakholelwa ukuba amaxabiso aya kulahla nakwixesha elizayo.
Iingcingo zokuvunwa ezivunyiweyo zenzeke kwiiyibhozo zihlandlo ukususela ngo-1958. Uqoqosho luye lwahluma phakathi kweminyaka emibini yeso sivuno sevuno esingaphezu kwesibini kwisibini.
Uluhlu Lwentengo Yenzalo?
Isithuba esiphakathi kwezivuno kwiibhondi zexesha elifutshane kunye nezibophelelo zexesha elide zanda xa isivuno somvuno sihamba.
Ukunyuka kwesi sithuba kubonisa ukuba izivuno kwiibhondi zexesha elide zikhula ngokukhawuleza kunezivuno kwiibhondi zexesha elifutshane, kodwa ngamanye amaxesha kunokuthetha ukuba ukuvunyaniswa kwexesha elifutshane kuhla nangokuba ukuvunwa kwexesha elide kukhula.
Ngokomzekelo, cinga ukuba inqaku leminyaka emibili lalingama-2.00 ekhulwini ngoJan. 2, kwaye umnyaka-10 wawungama-3.00 ekhulwini. Ngomhla kaFebruwari 1, inqaku leminyaka emibili livelisa ama-2.10 ekhulwini ngelixa i-10-year yields 3.20%. Ukwahlukana ukusuka kwipesenti ye-1 ukuya kuma-1.10 amaphesenti amaphuzu, okukhokelela kwisikhwama sokwenza isivuno.
I-curve isivuno esivumayo ngokuqhelekileyo ibonisa ukuba abatyali-zimali balindele ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokukhula koqoqosho oluqinileyo.
Umntu onotyalo-mali angayifumana njani inzuzo yenguqu eguqukayo yesiKhamo seNtengo?
Cinga ngeengcingo zesivuno njengento ethile ye-crystal ball, nangona kungekho nto eqinisekisa ukuba impendulo ethile.
Ukuvelisa iirveve nje kunikezela abatyalo-mali ukuqonda okufundisiweyo kwimivuzo emfutshane yexesha elifutshane kunye nokukhula koqoqosho. Ukusetyenziswa ngokufanelekileyo, banokunika isikhokelo, kodwa ayilona i-oracle.
Ihlawulela uninzi lwabatyalo-mali bezintlu ukugcina ixesha elide, elide elide ngokusekelwe kwiinjongo ezithile kunemiba yezobugcisa ezifana nokujika kwevuno. Kodwa abatyali-mali abasigxina banokufumana inzuzo kwimigudu yokuvelisa i-curve ngokuthenga enye yeemveliso ezimbini zokuthengiselana : iPath US Treasury Flattener ETN (FLAT) kunye ne-iPath US Treasury Steepener ETN (STPP).
Bobabini bancinci kwaye banomlinganiselo omncinci wokuthengisa-oqhelekileyo ungenakucingela-kodwa kunjalo banika indlela yokubonisa uluvo malunga nokuhluka phakathi kweentsebenzo ezifutshane kunye nexesha elide.