Cofa apha ukuze ubone i-Outlook ye-2014 yeBond High Yield Bonds
Isishwankathelo sebhunga
- Iimpawu eziphambili zezinkampani ezinobunini kunye nezivuno eziphezulu zihlala zisendaweni njengoko siqhubela phambili ngo-2013, kodwa uqoqosho kunye "neengcipheko zezimali" ziyimfuneko eguqukayo.
- Izivuno ziphantsi ngokupheleleyo, kodwa kwiimimiselo zembali ezimalunga noovimba be-US.
- Nangona amaqumrhu kunye nezivuno eziphezulu zingaqhubeka nokuvelisa ukusebenza okuqinileyo, abatyali-mali kufuneka bathuthukise ukulindela kwabo ngo-2013.
Ukugqwesa umhla we-2012
Utyalo-mali lwamaqumrhu otyalo-mali kunye neentengo eziphezulu zokuvelisa isivuno senze umsebenzi ogqwesileyo ngo- 2012 , njengoko amaxabiso angaphantsi kwezinto ezikhuselekileyo kubangele ukuba abatyali-mali baqhelise ukufumana imali ekhangayo ekhoyo kule mimandla. Iibakala zombini zee-asethi zakhunyiswa ngokuphucula kwimpilo yezemali zabaxhasi, njengoko kuboniswe kwimali ephakamileyo yokunyusa kunye nokuqulunqwa kweemali zamashishini ase-US. Umbuzo ngoku, ngokuqinisekileyo, ukuba ingaba zonke ezi zinto zihlala zikhona ngo-2013.
Iimpawu ezintle zikhona, kodwa ...
Iimeko zokuqhubeka ngamandla zibandakanya kunye nezibophelelo eziphezulu (i-"credit sector") zichaza izinto ezintathu eziphambili:
1) Nge-Federal Reserve egcina umgaqo-nkqubo wancinci, abatyali-mali abayi kuba nako ukhetho kodwa baqhubeke nokuthenga amacandelo eebredari ukuze bafumane ukuvunyanwa okuhloniphekileyo.
2) Uqoqosho lwase-United States, ngelixa lilukhuni, alunamandla okwaneleyo ukuba iinkampani zihlale zisesimweni esinempilo, esimele siqhubeke nokuxhasa ukusebenza kweenkampani kunye nokuvelisa okuphezulu.
3) Iirhafu ezingapheliyo - okanye ipesenti yeenkampani ezingaphumeleli ukwenza inzala kunye / okanye iintlawulo eziphambili - zihlala zifuphi kwimizila yeembali, eqhubekayo ukubonelela ngokutsha emva kwemarike.
Ezi zinto zintathu zimele zikuncedise ukukhawulelana nomhlaba osemgangathweni ngamacandelo eebredari ngo-2013. Nangona kunjalo, izivuno nazo ziphantsi kakhulu kwizembali - ezibonisa ukuba akukho xabiso kakhulu kula macandelo njengoko kwakunomnye okanye kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo.
Ukongeza, izityalo eziphantsi ziphakamisa amathuba okuphuhliswa kakubi - njengemicimbi yeendaba okanye ukunyuka kwemali - kunokubangela ukuhla kwexabiso elincinci lokubambisana kunye nokuzibophelela. (Hlalani nikhumbule, amaxabiso kunye nezivuno zihambelana nezikhokelo ezichaseneyo .) Ngaloo mvo, ukuxhaswa kwamathuba kumacandelo awancinci, ngelixa i-downside inkulu kakhulu.
Ngoko ke, abatyali-mali kufuneka baqaphele ukuthengwa kula ma nqanaba - njengabo abaye bathululela imali kwiminyaka emibili edluleyo, kwaye ke ngubani oye wafumana iimarike ezilungileyo kuphela. Oku kuyinyaniso ngokukodwa kwimveliso ephezulu. Omnye umda we-frantic demand for bond-high bonds adibeneyo kukuba iinkampani ezininzi ziye zakwazi ukukhupha iitalato, kubandakanywa nalabo abanekhredithi. I-Citigroup ibika ukuba i-293 yezigidi zeebhilidi ezibophelelweyo eziphezulu zikhutshwe ngonyaka ukuya kuNovemba 30, iiNkampani zivuma ithuba lokuthatha ityala kwixabiso eliphantsi likhuphe iirekhodi ezingama-293 yezigidigidi kwiibhondi ezingenamfutho ngoNovemba. Xa kuthelekiswa, irekhodi elidlulileyo lonyaka liyi-$ 271 yezigidigidi, zafika ngo-2010.
Isiphumo: umngcipheko jikelele wecandelo uphakamileyo, njengokuba izivuno ziphengulula zonke ixesha. Isivuno esiphezulu, ngoko ke, asiniki xabiso oluninzi njengoko kwakunjalo ngo-2011 okanye kwangoko ekuqaleni kuka-2012.
Zingaphantsi kangakanani iZivuno, Ngokwenene?
Iintlobo zijoliswe ekujoliswe kuzo, kodwa ekupheleni kukaNovemba inkunzi enkulu yebhanki yokuthengiselana ngebhanki, iShares iBoxx $ InvesTop Investment Grade Corp Bond Fund (i-ticker: i-LQD) inikeze isivuno se-42 seSibini seminyaka engama- 2.75% , ngelixa i-ETF ephezulu kakhulu yokuvelisa i-ETF, iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (i-HYG) inikwe 5.76%. Bobabini basengaphezulu kwe-1.61% isivuno esitholakalayo kwi-10 ye- US Treasury note ngaloo mhla. Nangona kunjalo, bobabini basondele ekupheleni kwebala lembali. Enyanisweni, izibophelelo eziphezulu zichithe ixesha elide lesibini lomnyaka wezorhwebo kwizithuba eziphantsi kwexesha lonke kunye namaxabiso aphezulu aphezulu. Le nto yayiyimthombo wokulumkisa abatshali-mali abaninzi ngexesha lesibini kwisiqingatha se-2012, kodwa zombini izibophelelo zentsebenziswano kunye nezivuno eziphezulu zaqhubeka ziphakama nantoni na.
Esinye isizathu sale nto kukuba isivuno sisasazeka- okanye ukusetyenziswa kweemveliso zokusasazeka kwamacandelo anxulumene noNondyebo base- US - kuhlala kuqikelelwa. Ngokwe-Federal Reserve Bank yaseSt. Louis, i-british bond bhonsi ye-bhondi inzuzo engama-1,67 pesenti kwi-Treasury yase-US ukususela ngo-1997 ukuya ku-2012. Ekupheleni kukaNovemba, ukusasazeka kwakuhambelana nomyinge wesiganeko kwi-1.61. Izibophelelo ezivunyiweyo eziphezulu, okwangoku, zenza umvuzo wokufumana umvuzo we-6.01 wepesenti kwiiNkokheli ze-US ngexesha elifanayo, xa kuthelekiswa no-5.58 ekupheleni kukaNovemba.
Umngcipheko wamanqanaba omdla kunye neengozi yeMatyala
Nangona eli nqaku lijonga iingqungquthela kunye nokuvunyaniswa okuphezulu kunye nenjongo yembono ka-2013, iiklasi zee-asethi ziphendula ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo zokutshintshwa kwendawo yokutshala imali. Amaqumrhu ebhalisela utyalo-mali athathaka kakhulu ekutshintsheni amaxabiso omyinge, kanti ukubophelelana kwemveliso ephezulu kunobungozi kumngcipheko wemboleko , okanye ngamanye amazwi, impilo yabasemagunyeni abasemgangathweni (kunye nokongezwa, uqoqosho).
Le yilapho imbono ka-2013 yezibhonkco zenkampani kunye nokuvunwa okuphezulu kuyahluka. Ukuba uqoqosho luye lwayekelela ekuhlaleni kwemali ngo-2013, izithintelo ziya kuwela. Kule meko, izibophelelo zenkampani ziza kunika iindleko eziphambili (kunye nethuba laba bakhupheli beemveliso eziphezulu) ngelixa izibophelelo eziphezulu ziza kubetha kanzima. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, imvuselelo ngokukhawuleza ekukhuleni yayiya kuba yinto enika isivuno esihle, kodwa ukunyuka okubangelwa kwiimali zeNondyebo bekuya kuba yinto engafanelekanga kwimicimbi yebakala lotyalo-mali. Zombini iziganeko zingenakuncinci kunomgangatho ophakathi-apho uqoqosho luqhubeka lukhula ngokukhula kwi-1-2% udidi-kodwa abatyali-mali kufuneka baqaphele onke amathuba.
Ngaphantsi
Kungokwemvelo ukuba abatyali-mali baza kuba yinkalo yeeklasi ze-asethi ezenzileyo kunye neenkontileka eziphezulu kunye nezindleko eziphezulu kwiminyaka emithathu edluleyo. Ngelo xesha, iiklasi ezimbini zee-asethi zenze i-returns engama-grade engama-9.30% kunye ne-12.30%, ngokulandelanayo, ngokusekelwe kwintsebenzo yenkcazo ngoNovemba 30. Ngeentlawulo ezinjalo eziphezulu kakhulu sele zikhona kwi-mirror-back view, akunakwenzeka ukuba iinkampani kunye nezivuno eziphezulu Unokuqhubeka nokunikela ngokusebenza ngokufanayo ngo-2013. Ukongezelela, ukunyanzeliswa kweveki ngeveki kuya kuphakama-ukuhlukelela kumgangatho ophezulu ophezulu owenziwe ngowama-2012. Noma kunjalo, ukuxhamla kwemveliso kule mihlaba mibini iyaqhubeka nokubonelela nge-investors isiqalo esilungileyo ngokubhekiselele kuNondyebo okanye ukulingana kwemali.
Oluthe ngakumbi malunga noko Ukulindela ngo-2013 :
Amashishini ase-US kunye ne-TIPS Outlook
Izibonelelo zeMasipala kaMasipala
Iimpawu zeeNkcazo zeMarike eziPhakamileyo
Ukuziphendulela : Ulwazi olukule ndawo lunikezelwa ngeenjongo zengxoxo kuphela, kwaye akufanele lithathwe njengengcebiso-mali. Ngaphandle kweemeko ngaba le nkcazelo ibonisa isincomo sokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa iziqinisekiso. Soloko ubonisana nomcebisi-mali kunye neengcali zerhafu ngaphambi kokuba utyale.