Ithenda yeBond Market ibuyisela: Yintoni eyasebenza kunye nezinto ezingazange zibe ngo-2013
Nangona kunjalo, abatyali-mali basenokuba nethuba elininzi lokwenza imali kwizibophelelo . Nangona ixesha elide elide , umgangatho ophezulu, kunye namanqanaba amaninzi athathekayo kwiimarike alahlekelwa ngumhlaba, iinkalo eziliqela-phakathi kwazo izibophelelo eziphezulu, ukubolekisa imali kunye neebhondi zexesha elifutshane - ugqibe umnyaka kwintsimi efanelekileyo. Isiphumo: umnini-mali othe wahluke ngokufanelekileyo-okanye owakhetha ukufikelela kwiimarike kunye nezibophelelo ngabanye kunokuba i- bond bonds - ikwazi ukugqithisa umnyaka ngomonakalo omncinci naphezu kwe-spike ephezulu kwiingxowa-mali zexesha elide.
2013 Bond Market Market Return Data
Imbuyekezo ye-2013 yeeklasi ezahlukeneyo kwiimarike ezibophekileyo zilandelayo:
Iibhondi ze-US ze-Investment-grade (iBhaclays US Aggregate Bond Index ): -2.02%
Ubuncwane bexesha elifutshane elifutshane le-US (iBarlaylays Index kaRhulumente wase-US iminyaka eyi-1-3): 0.37% Iimali zoNyaka eziPhakathi zase-US (i-Barclays Urhulumente we-US Intermediate Index): -1.25%
Ubuncwane bexesha elide lase-US (uBarlaylay Government of the US Index Index): -12.48%
IIMPAWU (iBarlaylays US Treasury-Linked Bond Index): -9.26%
Iziqinisekiso ezixhaswe ngemali (i-Barclays GNMA Index): -2.12%
Izibophezelo zikamasipala (iBarlaylay Muni Bond Index): -2.55%
Iibhondi zorhwebo (i-Barclays Corporate Investment Index Index): -1.53%
Iibhondi zexesha elide (i-Barclays Corporate Long Investment Index Index): -5.68%
Izibophelelo eziphezulu zezivuno (I-Credit Suisse High Yield Index): 7.53%
Imali-mboleko yeMatriki (i-S & P / LSTA Index Index Loan): 5.29%
Iibhondi zikaRhulumente ngamazwe ngamazwe (i-SPDR Barclays kwi-International Treasury Bond ETF): -3.59% Iibhonkco zeemarike ezivela (JP Morgan EMBI Global Index). -5.25%
Jonga imbuyekezo yazo zonke ii-ETF ezikhombisayo kwi-US apha .
Isiqingatha se-2013
Nangona i-2013 iza kukhunjulwa njengomnyaka onzima kumakethi emboleko, iinyanga eziqala zokuqala zonyaka zazingenangqondo. Njengokuba izilumkiso malunga nokuya kwehla kwiibhonkco zaqhubeka zihamba phambili kwi-press press, iibhondi zahlala zixhaswa ngumgaqo-nkqubo we-US Federal Reserve, umgaqo-mali onamandla, kunye nokuhlanganiswa kwexabiso eliphantsi kunye nokukhula kancinci.
Ukususela ngo-Apreli 30, iibhondi ze-investment-grade bonds zisekuhlaleni elihle kunye nenzuzo ye-1% kuphela.
Olu lungile lwangaphambili lushintshile ngokukhawuleza ngoMeyi xa uSihlalo we-Fed uBen Bernanke ecetyisa ukuba iFed ingasondela "ngokukhawuleza" umgaqo-nkqubo wokunciphisa umlinganiselo. Ukongeza umbane emlilweni kwakuyimpawu zokuqinisa ukukhula koqoqosho, okukhokelwa ukubuyiswa kwimakethi yasekhaya yaseMelika. Imarike yebhondi yasabela ngokugqithisileyo njengoko abatyali-mali bathatyathwa ukuba bathathe inzuzo ngaphambi kokuba iFed iqale ukurhoxisa inkxaso yayo: ukususela ngo-Meyi 2 kuya ku-Juni 25, isivuno kwi-note-year-year sakhuphuka ukusuka kwi-1.63% ukuya kwi-2.59% - ixesha elide. (Gcinani engqondweni, amaxabiso kunye nezivuno zihamba kwindlela echaseneyo ). Esi sivuno sawo saholela ekudakaleni okubukhali kuyo yonke i-market market, kunye namacandelo aqhelekileyo abonisa ukunyuka kwesantya-ntengo ephantsi.
Iimarike ezithengiswayo zaqhubeka zihamba phantsi kwehlobo, kwaye isivuno seminyaka eyi-10 ekugqibeleni siphume kwi-2.98% ngoSeptemba 5. Ukususela kweli nqanaba, iibhondi zenze i-rally yeenyanga ezimbini ezixhaswe yinxalenye yi-Fed eyamangalisa iSeptemba 18 ukuba akuyi kubamba i-taper ixesha.
Olu bhunge lugqithise ixesha elifutshane, nangona kunjalo, njengoko isivuno saphinda sanyuka phezulu ngoNovemba noDisemba njengezibonakaliso zokukhula okuphuculweyo okwenziwe ngokukhawuleza.
I-Fed yenza-in-bhengeza iqela layo lokuqala ngoDisemba 18 xa liyanciphisa ubukhulu beprogram yokunciphisa inani elivela kwiiRandi eziyi-85 ezigidi kwiintengo zeentengo ezibophelelwe ngenyanga ukuya kwii-75 zamawaka ezigidi. Nangona ukuphendula kwangaphambili kwiimarike ezibophelelweyo, kwadibaniswa kweendaba eziphambanisayo - ngokubambisana neengxelo zezoqoqosho ezinzulu - zaqhuba isivuno kwi-10-year note engaphezulu kwama-3% ngonyaka.
Itheyibhile elandelayo ibonisa uluhlu lwezivuno zeeNondyebo zibophelelo ezihlukeneyo ngexesha lonyaka.
| 12/31/12 | 5/2/13 | 12/31/13 | |
| Unyaka-2 | 0.25% | 0.20% | 0.35% |
| Unyaka-5 | 0.73% | 0.65% | 1.75% |
| Unyaka-10 | 1.76% | 1.63% | 3.03% |
| Unyaka wama-30 | 2.95% | 2.83% | 3.96% |
Abantu bajikeleza kwiiBond ukuya kwiiShishini
Into ebalulekileyo kwimiboniso ebuthakathaka yamabhondi kwakukho ukuphuma okukhulu kwemali-mali-mali-mali kwi-bond bond kunye ne- ETF . Umkhukula wemali emitsha ungene kwiklasi ye-asethi ukususela ngo-2010 nango-2012, kwaye kunokwenzeka ukuba abatyali-mali abaninzi abanengqondo ecacileyo yemingcipheko.
Emva kokuba imarike iqalile ukujika ngasemzantsi, abatyali-mali bathatha inxaxheba ekukhutshweni kwemali yebhanki.
I-Investment Company Institute ithi ingxelo emva kokulahlekelwa yimali eyi-59.8 yezigidigidi ngoJuni kunye nezinye iirandi ezigidi ezingama-46.2 ngoJulayi no-Agasti, iimali zengxowa-mali ziqhubeka zilahlekelwa yimpahla nangemva kokuba imarike iqale ukuzinza: i-$ 11.6 yezigidigidi ngoSeptemba, i-$ 15.6 yezigidigidi ngo-Oktobha, kunye ne-$ 19 billion. ngoNovemba. Oku kubonisa ukuba abatyali-mali bahlala bexakeke kakhulu kwimarike yemboleko nangemva kokuba imarike iqiniswe ngoSeptemba no-Oktobha. Ngonyaka, u-TrimTabs Uphando lwezoTyalo, i-bond ye-bond yafumana ama-$ 86 ayizigidi ezigidi. Ezi ziphumo zahamba kunye nomkhukula weeRandi ezingama-352 zezigidi zemali emali kwimali yesitokhwe, ebonisa ukuba izibikezelo ze-2012 ezibizwa ngokuthi " Ukuguqulwa Kakhulu " ukusuka kwiibhonksi eziya kuma-stocks zakuba ziphawulwe.
Iimfuno zexesha elide Uthabatha; Kodwa iibhondi zexesha elifutshane eligqityiweyo
Njengoko itheyibhile engenhla ibonisa, izibophelelo zangexesha elide zithinteka ngakumbi kunabalingane babo abafutshane kunye nabaphakathi bexesha elide ngo-2013. Isizathu esona sizathu sokukhutshwa kwabatyalo-mali kukuba abatyali-mali babone ukukhupha njengokuba yingozi nje kuphela ekupheleni komda wokuvunwa ukususela Izibophelelo zexesha elifutshane zixhomekeke ngokukhawuleza kumgaqo-nkqubo we- interest interest rate . Ekubeni i-Fed ayilindeleke ukuba iphakamise amazinga ukuya kube ngowama-2015 ekuqaleni, iibhondi zexesha elifutshane zikhuselekile kwiingxubusho ezithintele iimarike ezithengisayo kunyaka owedlule. Oku kubonakaliswa kwintsebenzo ye-ETFs emithathu ye-Vanguard etyalomali kwizibophelelo ezihlukeneyo:
| Fund | Tyikiti | 2013 Buyela |
| I-Vanguard Ixesha elifutshane leBond ETF | BSV | 0.15% |
| I-Vanguard I-Term Bond ETF | BIV | -3.59% |
| I-ETB yexesha elide le-ETF | BLV | -8.95% |
Umphumo obalulekileyo we-long-bond bonds 'engapheliyo kukuba i-curve isivuno iqhubekile kunyaka. Ngamanye amazwi, izivuno kwizibophelelo zexesha elide zenyuka ngokukhawuleza kunesivuno kwiibhondi zexesha elifutshane, ukwandisa isikhala sovuno phakathi kwamacandelo amabini. Nangona ulwahlulo phakathi kweemali zonyaka we-2 no-10 lwengxowa-mali lumi kuma-1.51 eepesenti ngamaphupha ngoDisemba 31, 2012, isithuba saye saye safika kuma-2.68 epesenti ekupheleni kwe-2013.
Izibopho eziPhezulu zeMali kunye neZimali eziPhezulu eziPhezulu
Ngoxa iibhondi kunye nobutyebi obuphezulu kwiimpawu zentshukumo-mali zenzelwe kakubi ngo-2013, akukho nto ingenakutshoyo kulabo abaqhuba umqhubi omkhulu . Izibophelelo eziphezulu zentengo zanikezela ukusebenza ngokuthe ngqo kwonyaka, ngenxa yokuhlanganiswa kokukhula koqoqosho oluzinzileyo , ukuphucula impilo yeemali zeekhredithi zamashishini aphezulu, izinga eliphantsi lokungagqibekanga , kunye nokunyuka kwamanani entengo.
Ngomfanekiso wabalingani-mali beengcipheko, izibophelelo eziphantsi ezivunyiweyo eziphantsi kwezinga eliphezulu ezikhutshweyo zonyaka. Kwakhona, ukuvavanya okuphezulu kwintsebenziswano kubangelwa ngumngcipheko wezinga lomyinge okwenza ukuba kubekho ukhetho oluhle ngexesha loxinzelelo kwiimarike zeNondyebo.
Amandla kwisivuno esiphezulu kuboniswa kwisivuno sawo esiwelayo- okanye ukubonelela ngenzuzo-phezu kooNondyebo ngexesha lonyaka. I-BofA Merrill Lynch I-US High Yield Master II Inkcazo yasasazeka iphakamileyo kuma-4.00 epesenti (amaphuzu angundoqo) phezu kooNondyebo ngo-Disemba 31, xa kuthelekiswa no-5.34 ngomhla we-31 kuDisemba, 2012. Ukunyuka komnyaka bekuyi-3.96, ebhalwe ngo-Disemba 26 no-27.
Iimali-mboleko eziphezulu , okanye iimali-mboleko ezenziwa ibhanki kwiinkampani kwaye zize zithengise kwaye zithengise kubalimi-mali, zenzeke kakuhle. Abatyalomali babethandwe kule nqanaba elikhulayo lempahla ngenxa yezivuno ezifanelekileyo kunye namazinga athileyo (kuboniswe kunye kunye nexesha apho isivuno sinyuka). Iimali-mboleko eziphezulu zixhamle kwiimali ezingenayo kwiimali kunye ne-ETFs ezityala kwi-space, emele uhluke ngokucacileyo kwiinkalo ezininzi zeemarike.
Uvimba- mali , u- Investment Grade Corporates , kunye ne-TIPS Lag
Ngomnye umgca weembambano, iibhondi ezinokubangela ukunyuka kwezinga lokunyuka kwezinga zithatha kwi-chinja ngo-2013. Ukuvelisa kwiiNondyebo zase-US kwahluma phezulu njengoko amanani awa, kunye nokulahleka okugqithisileyo okuvela kwiimbopheleleko kunye nobude obude. Ukuhla kwehla kutyhutyhile kwiiNkokeli zeMali-mali eziKhuselekileyo , okanye i-TIPS, ezingazange zitshathwe nje ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso kodwa kunye nokunciphisa umnqweno we-investor ukukhuselwa kwexabiso lentengo.
Ngokwahlukileyo, iziqinisekiso zokubambisa ngemali (MBS) - inxalenye enkulu kwiinkcukacha ezininzi zeengxowa-mali zohlobo lwasemakhaya - umhlaba olahlekileyo kunyaka kodwa ogqityiweyo phambi kweebhondi zikaRhulumente. I-MBS yancedwa ngokuthengwa kwee-asethi ze-Fed, njengoko i-$ 45 yezigidi ze-$ 85 yezigidigidi zeprogram-mboleko yokuthenga i-bond-targeted-backed securities.
Izibophelelo zequmrhu nazo zalahleka ngo-2013. Ukuchithwa okuqhutywe ngokupheleleyo ngokunyuka kweeNondyebo zivuno, ngokusekelwe kwinto yokuba iintengiso zeenkampani zandwendwela kwiNondyebo enqatshelwe ngokwenene ngo-2013. I-BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Index yaqala unyaka ngenzuzo ama-1.54 amaphesenti amaphuzu, kwaye yahlala ngo-1.28 ngoDisemba 31. Ukusabalala kwakunzima ngokuqhubekayo kunyaka, kunye ne-1.72 ephakamileyo, yahlaselwa ngo-Juni kaJuni, ngelixa i-1.28 inqanaba laphawula. Ukuhla kwe-isivuno sokusasazeka-kunye nokungabi nanyaniseki-kunceda ukubonisa ukuzithemba kwabathengi kwimpilo yeNkampani yaseMelika, njengoko kuboniswe ngokukhula ngokukhawuleza kwemali kunye namaphepha ebhalansi amakhulu.
Amandla asisiseko kwimarike nayo yaboniswa ngumlinganiselo omkhulu wokukhutshwa kwebhondi ngamashishini ayefuna ukuxhamla umgangatho wezinga eliphantsi. Umgangatho wesidingo wawuboniswe ngu-Verizon ukukwazi ukukhupha i-$ 49 billion kwiityala elitsha kwikota yesithathu kwaye unako ukuthengiswa kwemali (kubhekiselele ukuba kukho imfuno engaphezulu kunokuba kukho ubungakanani bentengiso). Ngokutsho kwe-Wall St. Journal, iinkampani ze-US-grade-investment zithengisa i-1.111 trillion yeebhondi ngo-2013, irekhodi elitsha.
Nangona kunjalo, le miba emihle ayinelanga ukukhupha impembelelo yokunyuka kweeNondyebo ukunikezelwa kweenkontileka eziphezulu kunye namaqumrhu karhulumente.
Ukwehla koNondyebo, ii-TIPS, MBS, kunye neenkampani kunceda ukubonisa ibakala elibalulekileyo: " umgangatho ophezulu " akuthethi ukuba "ukhuselekile" xa kukho isivuno siphume.
Ii-Municipals ezixinzelelweyo ngeeNtloko zeNtloko neeNgxowa-mali
Unyaka nawo waba nzima kuba abo batyaliweyo kumabhondi kamasipala. Amabhondi kamasipala ebhaliswayo-mali angaphantsi kohlobo lwabo abahlawulwe irhafu ngo-2013, kwaye isivuno esiphezulu se-munis saguquleka kakhulu kwimbuyekezo yezibophelelo zoshishino eziphezulu. Njengoko kunjalo kwimeko yonke yemarike yeekhonkco, izibophelelo ezikhula ixesha elide zenzeke kakubi kakhulu.
Iyona nto eyona nto ibinzima kumabhondi kamasipala yayiyi-spike ebukhali kwimveliso yeekhonkco zikaRhulumente ezenzeka entwasahlobo nasehlobo. Ngaphandle koko, nangona kunjalo, i-munis ibhekane neentloko ezongezelelweyo ezibangelwa yi-Detroit's bankruptcy, iingxaki zezimali zasePuerto Rico, kunye nokungaqiniseki ngokuhambelene nemibono yemali yezemali. Ngokubambisana, ezi zinto zikhokelela ekuphumeni okungaqhelekanga kwiimali zebhanki zikamasipala. I-Investment Institute Institute ibalwa ukuba i-bond yeebhanki zikamasipala ichitha imali engamaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-82 kwii-asethi ukususela ngoJuni ukuya ku-Oktobha, ukuguqulwa okuphawulekayo kwi-$ 50 yezigidigidi ezithengiswayo kwiimali ngo-2012. Aba baxinzelele abaphathi beemali ukuba bathengise ukubamba kwabo ukuhlangabezana nokuhlengwa, ukunyusa ukuhla.
Nangona kukho le miba, i-siseko ye-asethi ye-asethi igcina isingqiqo, kunye neerhafu ezikhulayo zorhulumente kunye noorhulumente basekuhlaleni, izilungiso eziphantsi, kunye nezivuno eziphezulu kumazinga ngokubhekiselele kwiibhanki ezihlawuliswayo.
AmaMakethi aMazwe ngamazwe aPhezulu, kodwa iiKharityhulam ziPhakamileyo
Abatyalomali bafumana okuncinci kwiintlobo zeefotfoli zaseburhulumenteni kumazwe angaphandle ngo-2013. Iimarike ezizibopheleleyo zamazwe ngamazwe, njengeqela, zagqiba i-flat njengenzuzo eqinile kwiinkalo ezincinci zaseYurophu ezifana ne-Spain ne-Italy zanyanzelwa ubuthathaka kwiimarike ezinkulu ezifana neChanada ne-United Bu kumkani.
Abatshali-mali base-United States baqedile unyaka obomvu ngenxa yobuthathaka kwiinkcitho zangaphandle kwi-dollar yase-US. Nangona inxalenye engeyiyo e-US ye-JP Morgan Global Government Bond Index yabuya ku-1.39% kwimigangatho yemali yendawo ngo-2013, yawa 5.20% xa ilinganiselwa kwiidola zase-US (ngoDisemba 27). Izahlulo ezinkulu zokubuya phakathi kwemali-yasekhaya kunye neentela ezibuyiselwe kwi-dollar zenzeke eJapan, e-Australia naseCanada, zonke ezo zibonayo iirhafu zemali zilwa nedola. Ngenxa yoko, iipotfoliyo zee- bond zikarhulumente ezingaqhelekanga zigqityiwe ummandla kwintsimi embi.
Iimakethe eziPhambili zijongene neentloko eziphezulu
Izibopheko zeemarike ezikhulayo zivaliwe ngo-2013 ngokubomvu, kodwa kukho konke ukuhla kwexesha kwenzeka ngo-Meyi-Juni selloff.
Ngeli xesha, abatyali-mali bavela kwiklasi ye-asethi kwimigudu njengoko ukunyuka kwezezimali kubangele ukuba abatyalo-mali balahlekelwe ngumdla wabo mngcipheko. Iimarike ezikhulayo zeematyala ziye zenzelwa ukukhula okuthe ngcipheko kunokuba kulindeleke kwiimarike eziphambili ezifana ne-Indiya, iBrazil, neRashiya, kunye nokukhathazeka ngezihlandlo ngokuphathelele "ukuhamba ngokukhawuleza" kwezoqoqosho lwaseChina. Ukongezelela, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okunyuka kwamaxabiso kubangele iibhanki eziphambili zeemarike ezikhulayo ukuba ziqale ukuphakamisa amaxabiso - ukuguqulwa kwimijikelezo emide yemilinganiselo eyenziwa ngo-2008-2012. Ukubanjiswa ndawonye, ezi zinto zibangele izibophelelo zoshishino ezikhulayo ukugqiba unyaka wabo obi kakhulu ukususela ngo-2008.
Icandelo elincinci kakhulu elichaphazelekayo leklasi ye-asethi yintlawulo yemali yasendaweni (ngokuchasene nezo zi-dollar zase-US). Uphuhliso lwenkunzi luba negalelo ekungabuthathaka kwixabiso leemali ezininzi ezikhulayo kuba abatyalo-mali abathengisa iimbophelelo kwilizwe langaphandle kufuneka bathengise imali ukuba benze njalo. Ngenxa yoko, izibophelelo zemali zengingqi zaxinzelelwa ngeendlela ezimbini: okokuqala, ngokubaluleka kweebhondi ngokwabo, kwaye okwesibini, ngexabiso eliwayo leemali. Ngethuba lika-2013 iMakethe yeMiboniso eVukayo yeMatyala yeNgxowa-mali yeNgingqi (ELD) ibuyele -10,76%, ngaphantsi kwe -7,79% yokubuya kwe-EMB.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi lwama-equation, izibophelelo zoshishino eziphuhlisayo ziqhube bhetele kwisiseko, njengoko kuboniswe kwi-3.24% yokubuya kweNgxowa-mali ye-WisdomTree ye-Marker's Boundary Bond Fund (EMCB). Iinkampani eziphumayo zibonelela ngeemveliso eziphezulu kunye neentengo eziphantsi ezithatha inzuzo kwiimarike zontengiso, kwaye nazo zivame ukuba zixakeke kwizinto ezininzi ezixhalabileyo ezithatha i-matyala ekarhwebo-ntengiso, njengokwenyuka kwamaxabiso emveliso kunye nokunyuka kwezoqoqosho. Icandelo leemakethe aliyi kubaleka ekutshintshisweni komngcipheko wokutya, kodwa ngo-2013 kubonise amandla akhe angaphantsi kwamandla okumelana nokuveliswa kweeNondyebo eziphezulu.
Yintoni elandelayo kwiMakethe yeBond?
Ukubukela emva akuyi kuzaliswa ngaphandle kokujonga phambili. Cofa apha kwi- Bond Market Outlook ka- 2014 , kwaye ubone imbonakalo yeeklasi ezithile ze-asethi kwiikhonkco ezingezantsi:
Bonds Corporate
Iimali zeMarike eziPhakamileyo
Ukuziphendulela : Ulwazi olukule ndawo lunikezelwa ngeenjongo zengxoxo kuphela, kwaye akufanele lithathwe njengengcebiso-mali. Ngaphandle kweemeko ngaba le nkcazelo ibonisa isincomo sokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa iziqinisekiso. Soloko ubonisana nomcebisi-mali kunye neengcali zerhafu ngaphambi kokuba utyale.