Oku kungashiya abatyali-zimali bazibuza ukuba yiyiphi ibhola, yintoni isiseko salo bango, kwaye yiyiphi i-bubble bubble ithetha ukuba iphothifoliyo zazo.
Ngezantsi, sifuna ukuphendula nganye ye mibuzo.
Yintoni i-Asset Bubble?
I-bubble yimeko nje yexabiso elithengisa ngaphezu kwexabiso elifanelekileyo kwixesha elide. Ngokuqhelekileyo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso xa kuthengiswa ngabakratshi abanomdla kunye nokusabalalisa kwandise ukuba kungakhathaliseki ukuba amaxabiso aphezulu angabakho ngoku, omnye umntu unokuhlawula ixabiso eliphezulu nakwixesha elizayo. Ekugqibeleni, iimbumba ziphela kunye nexabiso lentengo eyancipha kwixabiso elithembekileyo, ekhokelela ekulahlekelweni okukhulu kubatyalomali abaye bafika emva kwexesha.
Kukho iintlobo ezininzi kwiimbali, kubandakanywa ne-Dutch tlip bulb mania (1630s), izabelo zeNkampani yoLwandle lwaseMzantsi Afrika e-Great Britain (1720), izitokisi zendlela zoololiwe e-United States (1840s), i-stock market in- I-Twenty-Roaring, kunye ne-Japanese stocks kunye ne-real estate kuma-1980. Ngoku kutshanje, iUnited States ihlangene neembhobho kwizinto zombini zeteknoloji (2000-2001) kunye neendawo zangasese (kwiminyaka ye-2000).
Konke, ekugqibeleni, iphelile ekuhlaseleni kwintengo yombuzo ngamnye we-asset, kunye-nokuba ngamabhola amakhulu anjengezo zaseJapan kuma-80s nakwi-United States kwiminyaka elishumi edlulileyo-ixesha elide elide lobuthathaka kwezoqoqosho.
Kutheni ukuba iMakethe yeBond ibe yindawo yokubhola?
Ukuba ukholwa oko ufunda kwimali yezemali, i-market bond ye-US iyona ibhola elandelayo ye-asset enkulu.
I -sissis emva kwesi silula: i-US Treasury isivuno iyancipha kakhulu kangangokuthi akukho sikhokelo esincinci sokuhla kwehla. (Gcina ingqalelo, amaxabiso kunye nezivuno zihamba kwindlela echaseneyo .)
Ingakumbi, isizathu esibalulekileyo sokuba isivuno siphantsi kakhulu umgaqo-nkqubo we- ultra-low intlawulo yexesha elifutshane i-Federal Reserve iye yamisela ukwenzela ukukhuthaza ukukhula. Emva kokuba uqoqosho lubuyiselwe ngokugcwele kwaye uqesho luphakama kumanqanaba aqhelekileyo, ukucinga kuhamba, i-Fed iza kuqala ukuphakamisa amaxabiso . Kwaye xa ekugqibeleni kwenzeka, ukunyanzeliswa kokunciphisa ukunyusa kwi-Treasury izasuswa, kwaye izivuno ziya kuphakama ngokukhawuleza (njengoko amaxabiso awela).
Ngaloo ngqiqo, kunokuthiwa ukuba i-Nondyebo injalo e-bubble-kungekhona ngenxa ye-mania njengoko kwakunjalo kwiimbumba ezidlulileyo, kodwa ngenxa yokuba isivuno kwi-marketplace siphezulu kunokuba besingenakho isenzo esinobudlova.
Ngaba oku kuthetha ukuba i-bubble izakuqhuma?
Ubulumko obuqhelekileyo kukuba ngokuqinisekileyo ukuba izityebo zeNondyebo ziya kuba ziphakamileyo kwiminyaka emithathu ukuya kwemihlanu ukususela namhlanje. Eyona yimeko enokwenzeka kakhulu, kodwa abatyali-mali kufuneka baqwalaselwe ngenyameko kwizinto ezimbini.
Okokuqala, ukwanda kwezivuno - ukuba kwenzeka - kuya kwenzeka kwixesha elide, kunokuba kufutshane, ukuqhuma kwebhola ye-dot.com.
Okwesibini, imbali yeemarike zentengo yaseJapane inokubonelela ngexeshana ezininzi kwiipundits ezininzi ezingabonakali kakuhle kwiiNondyebo zaseMelika. Ukujongwa kweJapan kubonisa ibali elifanayo kwinto eyenzekayo apha e-United States: inkathazo yezemali eyenziwe ngengozi kwiimarike zepropati, ilandelwa ixesha elide lokukhula ngokukhawuleza kunye nomgaqo-bhanki ophakathi kunye neerhafu zenzalo kunye olulandelayo lokunciphisa . Kwaye, njengokuba kunjalo eUnited States namhlanje, isivuno seminyaka esi-10 sesibhambathiso sehla ngaphantsi kwe-2%. Ngokungafani ne-United States, nangona kunjalo-apho zonke ezi zinto zenzeke kwiminyaka emine edlulileyo-iJapan yabona ezi ziganeko kwiminyaka yama-1990. Ukunyuka kwe-Japan iminyaka engama-10 engaphantsi kwama-2% kuye kwenzeka ngasekupheleni kuka-1997, kwaye ayizange iphinde ibuyele le nqanaba ngaphezu kwexesha elifutshane ukususela ngaloo ndlela. Ukususela entwasahlobo ka-2014, iyaqhubeka isondeza isivuno esingaphantsi kwe-1% - njengokuba yenza iminyaka eyi-15 edlulileyo.
Kwakhona, kwinqaku elithi "Izibond: Ezizalelwa Ukuba Nobumnene" kwiwebhusayithi yokuhlaziya i-website ye-SeekingAlpha.com, i-AllianceBernstein inkokeli engenayo ingeniso e-Douglas J. Peebles. isantya apho ubophelelo lukhula khona. " Ngamanye amazwi, isivuno esiphezulu siza kuqhuba ixabiso elitsha lokubambisa, ukulungelelanisa impembelelo nayiphi na into yokuthengisa.
Ingaba ibhondi yebhondi yase-US ingagqitywa ekugqibeleni, baninzi ukuqikelela? Mhlawumbi. Kodwa amava e-post-crisis eJapan - ayenje afana kakhulu neyethu ngoku-kubonisa ukuba iirhafu zingahlala zide ngaphantsi kunokuba abatyalomali balindele.
Iinkcukacha zexesha elide libonisa ukuBaluleka kweMali enkulu yokuThengisa kwiiBond
Ukujonga kwakhona emva kwembonakaliso kubonisa ukuba ukuphazamiseka koNondyebo kuye kuncinci. Ngokweenkcukacha ezihlanganiswe ngu-Aswath Damodaran kwiNyuvesi yaseNew York yeYunivesithi yaseNew York, isibophelelo seminyaka engama-30 siye safumana ukubuyiswa okungalunganga kwiminyaka eyi-15 ye-87 yekhalenda ukususela ngowe-1928. Ngokuqhelekileyo, ilahleko zazincinane, njengoko kuboniswe kwitheyibhile ngezantsi. Qhubeka ukhumbule, nangona kunjalo, ukuba izivuno zaziphakamileyo kwixesha elidlulileyo kunokuba zikhoyo ngoku, ngoko kuthatha ubuninzi bexabiso lokunciphisa ukuvelisa isivuno kwixesha elidlulileyo kunokuba liza kwenzeka namhlanje. Zonke iintlawulo zibandakanya zombini isivuno kunye nokubuya kwexabiso:
- 1931: -2.56%
- 1941: -2.02%
- 1951: -0.30%
- 1955: -1.34%
- 1956: -2.26%
- 1958: -2.10%
- 1959: -2.65%
- 1967: -1.58%
- 1969: -5.01%
- 1978: -0.78%
- 1980: -2.99%
- 1987: -4.96%
- 1994: -8.04%
- Ngo-1999: -8.25%
- 2009: -11.12%
Nangona ukusebenza kwangaphambili akusikho umqondiso weziphumo ezizayo, oku kukunceda ukubonisa ukungaphumeleli kokuwa okukhulu kweemarike. Ukuba imarike yeebhondi iwa phantsi kwamaxesha anzima, umphumo wukuthi siza kubona iminyaka emininzi elandelelanayo yokusebenza komgangatho ophantsi, njengokuba kwenzeke kuma-1950.
Kuthiwani NgamaCandelo eeMarike engekho aNondyebo?
Ubuncwane akuyona yodwa yecandelo leemarike ekuthethwa ngalo kwi-bubble. Iimangalo ezifanayo zenziwe malunga nokubambisana kunye nokuzibophelela okuphezulu, ezixabisekileyo ngokusekelwe kwisivuno sazo esasazekayo malunga noNondyebo. Akunjalo nje kuphela ukusabalala kwaphela kwinqanaba eliphantsi kweembali ekuphenduleni ukondla kwabamali-mali ukukhula komngcipheko, kodwa isivuno esincinci kwi-Nondyebo sithetha ukuba isivuno esipheleleyo kula macandelo siye sawa kufuphi naso sonke ixesha. Kuzo zonke iimeko, ityala le-"bubble" linokufanayo: imali echithwe kulezi zigaba zeempahla eziphakathi kwenzalo eqhubekayo yokuvelisa isivuno, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kumanqanaba aphezulu angenangqiqo.
Ngaba oku kubonisa izimo zebhola? Akunjalo. Nangona ngokuqinisekileyo kubonisa ukuba ukubuyela kwexesha elizayo kwezi klasi ze-asethi kunokuba kungabi namandla kuminyaka ezayo, iingxaki zokuthengisa ngokukhulu kunanoma yiphi na ikhalenda enikezelweyo ziphantsi ukuba imbali ibonisa nawuphi na umqondiso. Ukujongwa kwamanani:
Izibophelelo ezivunyiweyo eziphezulu zivelise ukubuya okungenayo kwiminyaka emine kuphela ukususela ngo-1980, njengoko kulandelwa yi-JP Morgan High Yield Index. Ngethuba elinye lalehla liye likhulu--27% ngexesha leengxaki zezimali zango-2008 - ezinye zazincinane: -6% (1990), -2% (1994), kunye -6% (2000).
I-Barclays Iqoqo le-Bond Index ye-US - equka iiNondyebo, ii-corporates, kunye nezinye iibhondi ze-US zezobalo-mali ziye zafumana ezingama-32 kwiminyaka engama-33 edlulileyo. Unyaka ophantsi unyaka ka-1994, xa uchithe i-2.92%.
Ezi zintlukwano, ngelixa mhlawumbi ziloyikisayo, zazingqina ukuba zilawulwa ngabatyalo-mali bexesha elide-kwaye kungekudala ngaphambi kokuba iimarike zihlawulele kwaye abatyali-mali babe nako ukubuyisela ilahleko zabo.
Ukuba ngaba ngokwenene ibhotela yeBond Market, Yintoni enokuyenza Ngayo?
Phantse kuzo zonke iimeko, ukhetho olukhethekileyo ekutyaleni imali kukuhlala kwikhosi ekunikeni utyalo-mali lwakho ukuqhubeka nokuhlangabezana nokunyamezela kwakho kunye neenjongo zexesha elide. Ukuba utyalomali kwiibhondi zokudibanisa, ukuzinza, okanye ukwandisa ingeniso yakho yepotfoliyo, banokuqhubeka bekhonza le nxaxheba nangona iimarike zidibana ne-turbulence kwiminyaka ezayo.
Kunoko, ukhetho olukhethileyo lunokubangela ukunyamezela ukubuyela kwakho emva kolawulo olunamandla lweminyaka yamuva. Esikhundleni sokulindela ukuqhubela phambili kwe-stellar kubuyisela imarike ebudeni beli xesha, abatyali-mali baya kuba bulumko ukuba baceba iziphumo ezinokuthobeka.
Okuphambili kwesi sikhundla siza kuba ngumntu ohlala okanye kufuphi nomhlalaphantsi, okanye ngubani omele asebenzise imali kwiminyaka emibini ukuya kwimibini. Naliphi na ixesha umtyalomali kufuneka asebenzise imali kungekudala, ayihlawuli ukuba athathe ingozi engafanelekanga kungakhathaliseki ukuba yiyiphi imeko kwimarike ebanzi.
Inqaku lokugqibela ...
I-Pundits yenza imisebenzi yabo ngokubanzi ibiza iindawo ezinkulu zeemarike, ngoko kukho ininzi yokukhuthaza, "Bubble!" Kwaye ujabulele ukuhanjiswa kweendaba ezilandelayo. Njengokuba kunjalo ngaso sonke isikhathi ngokutshala imali, ungakholelwa konke ovelayo. Ukuba kukho nayiphi na into engathandabuzekiyo, nantsi inqaku elivela kwiLondon Telegraph elibizwa ngokuthi, "Ubumbano obunxulumene nengozi lindeleke ukuba lwenzeke". Umhla weqonga? NgoJanuwari 12, 2009.
Ukuziphendulela : Ulwazi olukule ndawo lunikezelwa ngeenjongo zengxoxo kuphela, kwaye akufanele lithathwe njengengcebiso-mali. Ngaphandle kweemeko ngaba le nkcazelo ibonisa isincomo sokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa iziqinisekiso. Qinisekisa ukubonisana notyalo-mali kunye nabaqeqeshi berhafu ngaphambi kokuba utyalomali.