Ibhonkco ngabanye ngokumalunga neNgxowa-mali yeBond
Umba wokuqala wokuqwalasela umbuzo wokuba neebhanki okanye iibhondi zemali . Omnye owakha iphothifoliyo yezibhonkco ngabanye akabonakali ukubonakala okubonakalayo kwintengiso kwimpahla yeebhere ngenxa yokuba ubuninzi beebhondi ekugqibeleni bavuthiwe .
Nangona kukho ithuba lokuba i-bond isenokungagqibekanga, le mngcipheko unokunciphisa ngokugxila kwimicimbi ephezulu.
Ngokwahlukileyo, iimali zebhondi azikhulisanga kodwa kunoko zixabiswa ngokusekelwe kwixabiso lentengo elitshintshayo ngonaphakade. Ngenxa yoko, abatyali-mali kwiimali ezibophelelweyo kufuneka baqaphele ngakumbi kwimpembelelo yeziganeko zangaphandle ezifana ne-market down in equities.
Amashishini aseUnited States: I-Bet Best kwi-Market Bear Market
Ukukhumbula ukuba akukho ziqinisekiso kwiimarike zezemali, iiNondyebo zase-US ziyinxalenye yeemarike ezibopheleleyo kakhulu ezinokuthi zenze kakuhle xa izitokisi zisekhishini lebhere.
Ngethuba leemarike zeebhere eziqhutywa ngo-Oktobha 11, 2000, ngo-Matshi 10, 2003 (ukuphuma kwebhola ye-dot-com), i-stocks yase-US yawela ngo-39%, kodwa isivuno kwiNqaku leNondyebo le-10 leminyaka lalinganiselwa ku-4.63% 3.59%. (Gcina ingqalelo, amaxabiso kunye nezivuno zihamba kwindlela echaseneyo .)
Kwimarike enkulu yeebhere - iJanuwari 10, 2008, ngo-Matshi 12, 2009 (i-housing / crisis mortgage) - ama-US equities ahlahlele i-45.3%, kodwa iminyaka eyi-10 yahlanganiswa ukusuka ku-3.91% ukuya kwi-2,89%.
Ngenxa yoko, umtyalo-mali obambe isabelo kwiiNondyebo okanye imali ye-Nondyebo yayiza kuba namalahleko amancinci kwipotfoliyo yawo yonke.
Esinye isizathu sokuba kutheni le nto kukuba imarike yemasheya iwa rhoqo ngenxa yokwesaba ngokunciphisa ukukhula koqoqosho , uphuhliso olungasebenza kwiNondyebo.
Iibhondi zikaRhulumente nazo zixhamla kwi-" flight to quality " xa abatyali-mali bekhula bengenazincipheko - njengokuba kunjalo njalo xa izitokisi ziwela.
Izibhengezo zeBond eziPhakamileyo kwi-Stock Bear Bearets
U-Anthony Valeri we-LPL wezeMali wathatha u-14 ukunyuka kweemarike ezithengiswayo ukusukela ngo-2004 ukuya ku-2013 kwi-January ye-Bondari ye-Bond Market Perspectives. Ngexesha lokuhla, i-S & P 500 Index ye-US equities ibhaliswe ngokuphindaphindiweyo -12.3%.
Ngeli xesha lixesha, i-Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index yathatha umlinganiselo we-1.1%. Umxube we-60% / 40% wee-stocks kunye nezibophelelo zilinganise ukubuyela kwe -7.0%, ama-5.3 epesenti phambi kwepototifo ezityalwe ngokupheleleyo kwiimpahla.
U-Valeri uthi, "Kwiimeko ezimbalwa, iifowuni kunye nezibhonkqo zaye zahlula kunye. Esi sisiphumo esibuhlungu kwaye sibonakalisa ukuhluleka kwezinto ezahlukeneyo, kodwa kunqabile.
IINKCUKACHA kunye neebhondi zikaMasipala: i-Toss-Up
Iimali-mali eziVikelekileyo kunye nezibophelelo zikamasipala zingabonelela kwiimarike zeebhere kwiimpahla zentengiso-ikakhulu kuxhomekeke kwisizathu sokuba, kunye nobukhulu be-sell-off. Iintlobo zombini zee-asethi zavelisa i-earnings ku-2000-2003, ebonisa ukuhla kwehla kwixabiso lamasheya kodwa kuncinci ukukhathazeka ngempilo yenkqubo yezemali ngokubanzi.
Ngokwahlukileyo, imarike yebhebhe ka-2008 yayiyi-ekujuleni kwayo-ihamba kunye neengxakini malunga nokuphazamiseka kwenkqubo yebhanki yehlabathi kunye nokuba kunokwenzeka ukuba uxinzelelo lwezoqoqosho. Ekubeni imeko enzima kakhulu iya kuhamba kunye ne-deflation ( ukwehla kwamanani) kwaye kungekhona ukunyuka kwamaxabiso , amaxabiso e-TIPS awa. Izibopheko zikaMasipala nazo zingaphantsi, njengoko ukukhathazeka malunga noqoqosho jikelele kubangela ukwesaba malunga nokuwa kwezimali zemali kunye noomasipala.
Ngoko ke, ukuthatha imali, ukuba i-investments kulezi zigaba zibini inokunika isalathiso malunga neemakethe zeebhere kwiimpahla, kodwa akukho mqinisekiso-ngakumbi ukuba ngaba abatyali-mali bathatha umngcipheko.
Izicwangciso zeMakethe yeBond ye-Bond zokuPhepha xa i-Stocks iwa
Kwimeko apho kuthengiswa i-market bear bear, amanqaku emakethi emboleko ebolekileyo athatyiswe kwingozi yemboleko- ngokuchasene nomngcipheko wezinga lomyinge-yiyo leyo yingozi kakhulu yokunciphisa intengo.
Ezi zibandakanya - ngendlela ebenokuthi zihlupheke, ukususela kuncinci ukuya kwiinkalo ezinxulumene nokutyalomali-mali (ngokukodwa kwimicimbi esemgangathweni), izibophelelo eziphezulu , kunye nezibopheko zoshishino ezikhulayo .
Xa abatyali-mali bebekele ingqalelo kumngcipheko, iimali ezityalomali kulezi zigaba ziya kuba zithintela ukuhla kwexabiso eliyinqununu. Ngenxa yoko, abatyali-mali kule mimandla kufuneka bahlale beqaphele kwimiphumo ebangela imonakalo yeemakethe zebhere kwiimpahla.
Ngaphantsi
Iibhonki, njengeqela, zithatha ukungena kwii-stocks xa kuhamba ukuhamba, kwaye i-Treasury ihlala izuza kwi-market-market market. Ngenxa yoko, ukudibanisa kwiimbopheleleko kunokubonelela umkhombisi onceda ekukhuseleni abatyali-mali ukuba bafumane impembelelo epheleleyo yemarike yokuthengisa. Nangona kunjalo, kubalulekile ukuba uqaphele ukuba amanye amacandelo eemarike ezimanyeneyo aya kulahlekelwa yilahleko xa iimpahla ziwela. Eyona nto ibaluleke kakhulu yokuthatha: ngenxa yokuba i-fund "idibene" egameni layo ayithethi ukuba ityala eliphantsi .
Ukuziphendulela : Ulwazi olukule ndawo lunikezelwa ngeenjongo zengxoxo kuphela, kwaye akufanele lithathwe njengengcebiso-mali. Ngaphandle kweemeko ngaba le nkcazelo ibonisa isincomo sokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa iziqinisekiso. Soloko ubonisana nomcebisi-mali kunye neengcali zerhafu ngaphambi kokuba utyale.