Yintoni esinokuyifunda kwizifundo zika-1994
Ireyithi yaba ngu -50 ekupheleni konyaka we-2016 kwaye yaqala ukunyuka ukusuka apho ukuya kwi-1,25 yeepesenti ngo-2017. I-Federal Reserve ibonise ukuba iya kutshaya isantya kwakhona ukuya kuma-1.5 ekhulwini ngo-2017, kodwa oko kwakungazange kwenzeke kwangaphambili EyeNkanga.
I-Fed yabhekisela kwakhona ukuba sinokulindela umlinganiselo wepesenti ezi-2 ngo-2018 kunye neepesenti ezingama-3 ngexesha le-2019 lifika.
Nangona ixesha elichanekileyo lingaziwa, into enye iqinisekile: i-Fed iza kuqhubeka nokuphakamisa amaxabiso kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo ngexesha elizayo. Abasomali-mali beBond bazakujamelana nocelomngeni omtsha njengoko oku kuyenzekayo: amandla okuba buthathaka kwiimali zebhondi zexesha elifutshane .
Endala
Oku kuza kubakho utshintsho olubalulekileyo oluvela kwindawo ekhoyo kwindawo yokuqala yenkxalabo yezimali ka-2008 kwaye kungekudala emva koko. Izinga eliphantsi lezinga leemali ezidliweyo ngelo xesha-nolwazi lwabatyalomali ukuba amaxabiso aya kuhlala ephantsi kwiminyaka emininzi-inikwe iibhondi zexesha elifutshane ukwenzela ukuhambisa iintlawulo eziqhubekayo nangona ngexesha lokuthengiswa kweemarike ezithengiswayo ze-2013.
Unyaka wekhalenda ubuya kwiVanguard kwixesha elifutshane le-ETF (BSV) ngexesha lokusukela ngo-2008 ukuya ku-2013 lahla ukusuka kuma-8.5 ekhulwini ngo-2008 ukuya kwi -15 ekhulwini ngo-2013.
Le ntlawulo ayikho into ekhangayo, kodwa ngokuqinisekileyo izalisekise ukulindela kootyalo-mali ngokusebenza ngokukhawuleza ngokunyaniseka okuphantsi. Njengoko i-Fed iqala ukuphakamisa amazinga kwakhona, nangona kunjalo, imo-ntle yesikweletu sesikhatshane sinokuthi ayikho into enhle, kuxhomekeke ekuphakameni kwayo. Kodwa yintoni na into engafanelekanga ngayo?
Izifundo zika-1994
Umgangatho okhoyo okhoyo wokusebenza kwemarike yeekhonkco ezingekho mthethweni ngowama-1994 xa i-Barclays Integrated Bond Index yawa 2.92 ekhulwini- ukubuyela kwayo kubi kakhulu kwiminyaka engama-34 edlulileyo . Isizathu solu phahla siyisigqibo seFed sokwandisa amazinga omdla ngokukhawuleza ukusuka kuma-3 ekhulwini ekuqaleni konyaka ukuya kuma-5.5 ekhulwini ngonyaka wokuphela. Le ntshukumo ibandakanyiwe ngamanqanaba ayisithandathu, okuquka ukuhamba kwekota yekota, ukunyuka kwamanqaku amabini, kunye nekota enye yesithathu ukuhambisa umjikelezo ngoNovemba 15.
Oku kubonisa isicwangciso esinobuqilima esabanjwe ngabalimi-mali ukuba baqaphele kwaye ekugqibeleni bancedise ekuhleni kwexabiso leemveliso ezixakekayo eziphathekayo kunye nezinye i-investors ezinkulu. Iilahleko kulezi ziphumo ziyinxalenye ebalulekileyo ebusweni be-Orange Country ngokungabonakaliyo ngo-Disemba 1994.
Kubo abatyali-mali ngabanye, ukunyanzeliswa kwemarike-mboleko kudlalwa ngendlela yokulahleka okukhulu kwiimali ezibophelelweyo . Mhlawumbi ininzi into emangalisa ngayo ukubuyiswa kwemali yexesha elifutshane . Abanini-mali bathatha imali yokubambisa i-short-term bond njengemoto engozini yokugcina inqununu yabo, ngoko ukulahleka kule ngxenyana kuthatha ukuphazamiseka ngaphezu kokunciphisa ukutyalo-mali njengemali ye-stock lapho kungalindelwa khona ukutshatyalaliswa.
I-Wall St. Journal yabika oku kulandelayo ngoFebruwari 1, 2010, inqaku elifutshane eliBhatshane nexesha elifutshane Ukuthwala umngcipheko xa amaxabiso aphakama :
"Ngowe-1994, xa i-Fed iqalise uluhlu olunobundlobongela bonyuka, inani eli-120 leengxaki (ikhelenda) ilahleko zekota zithatha iipesenti ezi-2. Uninzi lwazo lwama-bond-bond bonds aphethwe ngumntu we-Orange County, uCalif. "
Ngokwahlukileyo, iqumrhu locwangciso lwezemali uCambridge Connection LLC luchaze ukuba:
"Ngowe-1994 ... ukunyuswa kwamazinga omyinge wexeshana kwithuba elifutshane libona ukuhla kwe-4.75 ekhulwini kwixabiso (xabiso lexabiso lexabiso lemali) yeemali ezifutshane zexesha elifutshane. Kwabaninzi abantu, oku kuthetha ukulahleka kwemali yokuba babengakulungele ukuhlupheka. "
Kutheni iimbophelelo zexesha elifutshane zithinteka kangaka ngo-1994, kodwa kungekhona ngo-2013? Impendulo yukuthi umgaqo-nkqubo we-Fed uyona nto ephambili ekuqhubeni ukubuyiswa kwee-bond-short-term bonds, oku kuthetha ukuba bathambekele ekubambeni ngcono kakhulu kunetyala lexesha elide xa i-Fed ikulindeleke ukuba igcine amazinga aphantsi njengoko kunjalo ngo-2013.
Ngokwahlukileyo, isenzo se-Fed esinobudlova ngo-1994 sasibeka isigaba sokulahleka okukhulu kwiimali zebhanki ezifutshane.
Ngaba i-1994 ingaba kwakhona?
Ngandlela-thile, izifundo zango-1994 zisasebenza namhlanje. Xa abatyali-mali beqala ukugxila kwiimeko zokuhamba kweeFed, izibophelelo zexesha elifutshane ziya kuba ziqala ukufumana iintlawulo ezincinci kwaye-kuxhomekeke kuhlobo lwe-volatility engaphezulu kwenkxaso kunokuba bebeneminyaka edlulileyo. Kukho konke, oku kuya kuba yinkinga enkulu kwimarike njengoko isantya sanda kwiminyaka emibini elandelayo, ukuba ngaba kunjalo.
Xa uthethile oku, kukho izizathu zibini ezibangela ukuba abatyali-mali bangadingi ukukhathazeka ngokuphindaphinda ngo-1994 njengoko iFed iqala ukunyusa amaxabiso. Okokuqala, iFed iyancipha i-telegraph yayo ihamba ngokuthe ngempumelelo nangokwethenjelwa ngoku ngaphezu kwe-20-kunye neminyaka edluleyo. Akunakwenzeka ukuba i-Fed yanamhlanje iya kukhetha ukuphazamisa iimarike ngokusebenzisa uluhlu olunobundlobongela nolumangalisayo olwenyukayo njengoko lwenziwa ngo-1994.
Okwesibini, iimpembelelo ezinokuthi zivela kwizinto ezivela kwizinto ezifakwe apha ngoku kunokuba zikhona ngo-1994 ngenxa yemimiselo emininzi kumaziko emali.
Zombini ezi zinto zibonisa ixesha lokubuyiswa kweemali zexesha elifutshane, kodwa alukho uhlobo lokutshatyalaliswa okwenzeka ngo-1994.
Inzuzo engenzekayo yeeMiddle Hik Hikes
Impembelelo ayiyi kuba yinto embi njengoko iFed iphakamisa amazinga. Njengoko isantya semali esondliwe siyakhuphuka, ngokunjalo, kuya kuba nezivuno kwiimali zee-bonds ezifutshane. Kodwa gcinani engqondweni ukuba le nkqubo ayenzeki ngobusuku. Iyenzeka ngokuthe ngcembe ngexesha elide njengoko iimali zokubamba iimali kunye nabaphathi beephothifoliyo zibeka endaweni yazo ngokutsha, ezikhuphayo. Izivuno eziphezulu, kwakhona, zivumela abatyalo-mali ukuba bafumane imali engaphezulu kwiiposfoliyo zabo. Izivuno eziphezulu zikhupha ezinye ilahleko ezenzeka kwixabiso lamanyanzelo, ezinokukunceda ukuzinzisa ukubuyiswa kwamaxabiso.
Ngaphantsi
Iilahleko kwiimali zebhanki zexesha elifutshane azisoloko zinzima xa kwaye kwaye i-Fed iphakamisa amazinga omdla kwakhona, kwaye ayinakwenzeka ukuba afane nalabo babhaliswe ngo-1994. Nangona kunjalo, kunokwenzeka ukuba iifom zebhanki zexesha elifutshane. ziya kuba zingathembeki kangako ngokobuchule bazo bokugcina imali yakho iphephile. Ukuba ukugcinwa kwinqununu kuyona nto ephambili, lixesha lokuba uqale ucinge ngezinye iindlela .