Izifundo zeMfundo ziye zazama ukufezekisa iiNqanaba eziLungeleleneyo zokuPhucula iiNyaka ezingama-50
Ngenhlanhla ngenxa yethu sonke, abafundisi baye bajonga le nkalo kwizizukulwana baze bafike kwiindawo ezincinci zeesitokethi ezifunekayo ukuba zibanjwe kwipotfoliyo yokutshala imali ukuze zenze iindleko zohlukeneyo.
Makhe sijonge emva kwimbali yeengxoxo zeemarike zentengiso ngokubheka ezi zifundo ezine eziphambili oza kuhlangana nazo kwiikholeji zekholeji zanamhlanje.
U-Evans no-Archer Amanani angama-10 Amasheya ayenayo i-Diversification ngo-1968
Njengoko umfundi ngamnye wezemali mhlawumbi uyazi (kwaye phantse yonke incwadi yesigxina yezimali ifuna ukukukhumbuza), okokuqala ngenye nawuphi na umsebenzi ophezulu wezemfundo kwihlabathi lanamhlanje uzama ukuphendula umbuzo othi, "Uluhlu lobuninzi olunjani?" wafika ngoDisemba ka-1968 xa uJohn L. Evans noStephen H. Archer banyathelisa isifundo esibizwa ngokuba yi- Diversification kunye nokunciphisa ukusabalalisa: Ukuhlalutya koMoya kwi -Journal of Finance , uMqulu 23, i-Issue 5, iphepha 761-767.
Ngokusekelwe kumsebenzi wabo, uVevans noArcher bafumene ukuba iphothifoliyo ehlawulwe ngokugcwele, ayikhokhwa ngamatyala (ifundwa: akukho mboleko ebolekayo ) kunye neendlela ezili-10 ezikhethiweyo ngezikhethi ezivela kwiluhlu lweenkampani ezingama-470 ezineenkcukacha ezipheleleyo zezimali ezifumanekayo kwishumi elidlulileyo (1958-1967) yayinokukwazi ukugcina ukuphambuka komgangatho omnye, okwenza ngokufanayo kufane ne-stock market.
Le ndlela yokukhetha iifom zenzeke ngokungakhange zibhekiselele kuhlalutyo olusisiseko, kubandakanywa isitatimenti sengeniso kunye nesifundo se- balance sheet , esaziwa ngokuba yi-"diversification". Umtyalo-mali owenzayo usebenzisa umgwebo womntu kwaye akahluki phakathi kweshishini elifana nexabiso lempahla kunye nequmrhu elinenani eliphezulu lokuthengwa kwemali . Akukho nto ehlukileyo phakathi kweenkampani ezixhamlayo kwiitalato kunye nabangenayo nayiphi na i-penny kwaye baneetoni zemali ezihleli ngeenxa zonke zokukhusela okongezelelweyo, okwenza kube lula ukutshatyalaliswa okukhulu kwemozulu.
Ingundoqo yezinto ezifunyenweyo: Njengoko ulwahlulo lwandisiwe ngokongeza izikhundla ezongezelelweyo kwi-portfoliyo yesitokethi, ukungazinzi (okuchazwe njengengozi) kunciphisa. Nangona kunjalo, kufike iphuzu apho ukongeza igama elongezelelweyo kwiqela lokutshala imali linika uncedo oluncinci kodwa lwandisa iindleko, ukubuyiswa kwehla. Injongo yayikufumana lo mgca.
I-Meir Statman Ikholelwa kuVevans no-Archer Bekungalunganga, Ukuphikisana ngo-1987 Oko kwathatha 30-40 Amasheya ukuba abe neentlobo zokwahlukana
Phantse kwiminyaka engamashumi amabini kamva, iMeir Statman yashicilele njani Uninzi lweSitokisi ezenza iPortfolio? kwi- Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, uMqulu 22, No. 3, ngoSeptemba 1987 , kwaye wagxininisa ukuba uEvans noArcher babengafanelekanga.
Wayekholelwa kumtyalo-mali-mali-mali, inani elincinci lezithuba zokugcina izikhundla ukuqinisekisa ukuba ulwahlulo olwaneleyo lwalu-30. Kwabo babesebenzisa imali ebolekwe, 40 kwakwanele.
I-Campbell, i-Lettau, i-Malkiel ne-Xu Ishicilelwe iPhepha ngo-2001 Inyanzelisa ukunyuka kwe-Stock Incatifiketi efunekayo Ukuhlaziywa ku-Evan no-Archer Ngenxa yokuba ii-Stock zifunekayo ngoku zifunekayo
Kuphi uvavanyo olusasaziwa ngowe-Februwari 2001 umxholo we -Journal of Finance , Volume LVI, No. 1, uJohn Y. Campbell, uMartin Lettau, uBurton G. Malkiel kunye noYexia Xu, banyathelisa isifundo esibizwa ngokuba yi-Individual Iimasheya Ziba Ziyingozi Kangakumbi? Ukuhlolisiswa kobuGcisa bengozi ye-Idiosyncratic . Kwakubhekisele kwi-Evans yasekuqaleni kunye no-Archer isifundo sokudibanisa kunye nokuzama ukuqhubela phambili iziphumo kwimarike yokulingana. Yagqiba ukuba ukungabi nanyanzeliso kwakuye kwaphakanyiswa ngokukhawuleza ukuba ukufumana iintlobo ezinxulumene neentlobo ezahlukeneyo kufuneke iphothifoliyo engekho ngaphantsi kwama- stock .
I-Domian, iLouton, kunye neRicine iguqule iNgcaciso yengozi kwiNgcono engcono-iMetrikhi yehlabathi kwaye iphelile, ngo-Ephreli ka-2006, ukuba no-100 amasheya ayenelanga
Ekugqibeleni kwanyatheliswa ngoNovemba 2007 kwiphepha 557-570 lweNgxelo yokuPhathwa kweMali emva kokugqitywa kunyaka ongaphambili, isifundo esineengqwalasela ezininzi ezibizwa ngokuba yi- Diversification kwiiNgxowankulu zeeMpahla eziZodwa: 100 IiShishini azivumelekanga, zitshintshile inkcazo yengozi ukuya phezulu uvavanyo lwehlabathi luneengqondo. Esikhundleni sokuqwalasela ukuba iphothifoliyo enikeziweyo iguquguquke kangakanani - ukunyuka ndiyancoma njengoko ndenzile ngokucacileyo imbono yam yobuchule obomeleleyo bheta njengomlinganiselo wengozi yinkomo epheleleyo ngaphandle kweemeko ezimbalwa - ifuna ukufumana ukuba zininzi iimpahla kwakudingeka ukuba enye isebenzise ukuhlukahluka kobutyebi ukwakha iphothifoliyo engayi kukhawulelanga kwinqanaba le-Treasury elingenabungozi kwiminyaka emibini; Kwimeko, 1985-2004. Uphononongo lwakha iipotifoliyo ezinokuthi zi-1,000 ezinkulu, iinkampani ezithengiswa esidlangalaleni e-United States.
Isiphetho? Ukunciphisa amathuba akho okuwa ngaphantsi kwe-99%, ebonisa ingozi e-1 kwi-100 yokungaphumeleli, iphothifoliyo edibeneyo engadibeneyo kufuneka ifake amafayili angama-164.
Ukuba uthe wahamba ne-stock-portfolio ye-10, ube no-60% wokuba uphumelele, oku kuthetha ukuba amathuba angama-40% okungafezeki.
Ukuba uthe wahamba ne-portfolio ye-20-stockstock, ube no-71% amathuba okuphumelela, oku kuthetha ukuba amathuba angama-29% okwehluleka.
Ukuba uthe wahamba ne-30-stock-portfolio, ube ne-78% amathuba okuphumelela, oku kuthetha ukuba amathuba angama-22% okuhluleka.
Ukuba uthe wahamba ne-50-stock-portfolio, ube ne-87% enokwenzeka yokuphumelela, oku kuthetha ukuba ithuba le-13% lokungaphumeleli.
Ukuba uthe wahamba ne-100-stock portfolio ekhankanywe kwisihloko sophando, unokufumana ithuba lokuphumelela ngamaphesenti angamaphesenti angama-96, oku kuthetha intsingiselo ye-4% yokungaphumeleli. Oku kunokuba kungathi kuninzi, kodwa xa uthetha ngomgangatho wakho wokuphila, olingana ne-1-in-25 engxaki yokuhlala kwiRamen. Akunjalo, ngokuqinisekileyo, indlela ofuna ukuyisebenzisa ngayo iminyaka yakho yegolide, ngokukodwa xa uceba ukwenza umhlalaphantsi .
Iingcamango zoPhando lweDissification zichanekile, Nangona zisenokuba ziNgcaciso ezithile phantsi kweemeko ezincinci.
Esinye sezigxeko ezinzima esinazo uphando olushicilelwe ngo-2007 kukuba lukhishwe kwisethi esiphezulu se-investment engaphezu kwe-Archer no-Evans. Khumbula ukuba umArcher no-Evans babekhethe ngokukhethekileyo kwinkqubo yokuhlola. Babambelela kumashishini amakhulu (amashishini amakhulu, ngeenkcazo, abahluleka ngokukhawuleza, banokufikelela kakhulu kwiimarike ezinkulu, banokukwazi ukukhangela italente efunekayo ukuze bazigcinele kwaye baphumelele, kwaye banomdla obandakanyekayo abanokuthi bangene kwaye ubone iinqanawa zilungele ukuba izinto zihamba kakuhle, ezibangelwa kwizinga eliphantsi lokutshabalalisa ngaphandle kwee-stocks ezinexabiso lemarike encinci). Baye balahla nayiphi na ifowuni eyayingenayo irekhodi elide elishumi elide elisisigxina ukukhusela i-Wall Street ekuthengiseni amabhizinisi amatsha angenakukuhambisa.
Ezi zinto zimbini zithetha ukuba i-pool kunye ne-Evans eyakhela iipotifoliyo zabo ezingafaniyo ziphezulu kakhulu kunokuba zisetyenziswe kwisifundo esandula kutshanje. Akumele kumangalise mntu oye wenza kakuhle kwiimatriki zesikolo esiphakamileyo ukuba kukho imfuneko eyahlukeneyo njengokuba umgangatho wabaviwa abanokubakho kwiqonga lahla ngokukhawuleza. Kwakufanele kube yimpumelelo engaphambili kumntu onamava okwenene ehlabathini. Ubungakanani bezinto ezincinane ezaziwa ngokukhutshwa kweekhephe eziza kuphazamiseka ziphezulu ngaphezu kweenkampani ezifana ne-Exxon Mobil okanye uJohnson & Johnson. Amanani acacile.
Nangona uvavanyo olunjalo luya kuba luncedo kumafemu afana noCharles Schwab ahamba ngokubhekiselele kwi-electronic assembled (Funda: Akukho mvume yomntu) iipotfoliyo zee-securities, zonke azikho nto ezingenalusizo kwi-investor-disciplined disciplinary.
Ndiyixabise? Cinga ukuba kuthini ukuba iziphumo zichanekile. Cinga ukuba njengamhlanje kusihlwa, iifolishi eziphezulu ezingama-25 zimela oku kulandelelaniswa kwezi zilandelayo:
- I- Dow Jones Isisombululo Soshishino = 93,89% yeempahla
- I-NASDAQ Composite = 46.66% yeempahla
- I-S & P 500 = 30.32% yeefa
Ngako-ke, njani umsebenzi wabafundi abanezakhono ezifana noDkt Jeremy J. Siegel eWharton xa kunokwenzeka xa kukho iminyaka engama-17 ubudala, amanani atshaywe ukubuyiswa kwemali yee-bond? Zilula: Iimpawu eziphambili zinokuthi zifana nobungakanani bokuguqulwa kwekhwalithi ebhaka kwiindlela zabo. Abantu abaqhelekileyo abawuthathi i-dart kwaye baphonsa i-dart kuludwe lwamagama, ukwakha iphothifoliyo ngendlela. (Ukuba bekunjalo, bekuya kutshabalalisa i- p / e ratios kwizinto eziyinyani njengoko imali yachithwa nakwamashishini anamaqondo aphantsi esabelo sabelo. Beka ngakumbi, ukuba bonke abatyali-mali babeka i-1/500 yezinto zabo kwi-Apple kunye ne-$ 700 + yeebhiliyoni mali kunye ne-1/500 yezinto zabo kwi-United States Steel Corp, kunye ne-$ 3.6 yezigidigidi zeemali zeemalike zeemali zentengo, loo mva ayinakuyithatha imiyalelo yokuthengwa kwaye izabelo ziza kuthunyelwa kwi-orbit nge-justification. ukurhweba kwixabiso elincinci kwixabiso langaphakathi. )
I-DJIA, eye yabetha i-S & P 500 ngaphezu kwam ubomi bam ngamaqonga angama-50 ukuya ku-100 amanqaku ngonyaka (leyo eyongeza kwimali yangempela xa uthetha ngamashumi eminyaka amaninzi) ikhethwe ngesandla ngabahleli be -Wall Street Journal . Kuphela iinkampani ezinkulu, ezinenzuzo kakhulu, ezimele kwilizwe zenza uluhlu. Yinto ye- blue chip yokutyelela idumo.
I-NASDAQ kunye ne-S & P 500 yintengo yemali yeemarike, enentsingiselo enkulu (kwaye phantse inenzuzo kakhulu, ngaphandle kokuba sisebhankini yamasheya esitokisini), amafemu athoxiswa phezulu aze enze ipesenti ezingenakubalwa zexabiso .
Akukho konke. Umsebenzi we-Siegel, ngokukodwa, ubonisa ukuba ipolfoliyo ye-S & P 500 yasekuqaleni ngo-1957 eyayingabikho ukuguqulwa okutshintshileyo yashaya i-S & P 500 ngokwenene ngenxa yezizathu ezahlukahlukeneyo ezibekwe kwisigqeba sakhe somsebenzi, esibonisa sele sele ibonise ukhuseleko lwehlabathi lokwenene lweefemu ezinkulu malunga neentlobo zabo ezincinci.
Ekupheleni, Ukuba Ufuna Ukwazi Ukuba Kuninzi Ukuchithwa Kwento, Khangela kuBenjamin Graham
Usishiya phi? Njengamanye amaninzi kwimimandla yezemali, inokufingqwa njengokuba: uBenjamin Graham ulungile. UGraham, owayefuna abatyali-mali ukuba babe neempahla ezi-15 ukuya kuma-30, wagxininisa kwiimvavanyo eziyisixhenxe zokuzivikela . Thatha ixesha lokusebenzisa izibalo kwaye ufumanisa ukuba indlela yakhe ngokufanelekileyo, kwaye ingenangqiqo, yenze iinjongo ezifanayo eziphezulu zentengiso ze-stock market, zikhokelela kwizinga elincinci lokungaphumeleli ngezinga elingafaniyo lokuxinwa.
Ziziphi iimvavanyo ezixhenxe? Wandisa phezu kwabo kodwa ingcaciso yesishwankathelo:
- Ubungakanani obufanelekileyo boshishino
- Isimo sezimali esinamandla
- Ukuzinza ukuzinza
- Ukuseka irejista yokuhlawula
- Ukuqiniswa kokukhula kwemali
- Umlinganiselo olinganiseleyo wexabiso lentengo
- Isilinganiselo esilinganiselweyo sexabiso-kwi-asethi
UGraham wayengakholelwa kwizinto ezingafaniyo. Wayefuna i-metrics emiselweyo. Thatha, umzekelo, ukusebenza kweempahla zeenqwelo zeenqwelo zeenqwelo zeenqwelo zeenqwelo zeenqwelo-moya ngokubhekiselele kwisitokisi sabantu abathengi kwi-half half past Ubunokwenzeka bokumemezela i-bankruptcy kwiqela elidlulileyo ngaphezu kweyiphi na iminyaka engama-50, ngenxa yeendleko ezichanekileyo kunye neentengo eziguquguqukayo kunye nokungabikho kwamandla emali, kuphezulu kakhulu. Ngokwahlukileyo, abaxhamli bezityalo banandipha izakhiwo ezininzi zeendleko eziguquguqukayo, iintlawulo ezinkulu kwiinkunzi, kunye namandla okwenene okuxabisa. Ukuba bobabini bathengisa ngemali eyi-15x, uGraham angase anqine ngokunyanisekileyo ukuba unobunzima bokuziqwalasela abaviwa abahlukeneyo. Susa ii-airways ezivela kwi-equation kwaye, nangona uya kuphinda unyaka obalaseleyo unyaka ka-2015 xa amaxabiso wamandla anqabile ekubangela ukuba amanani e-stock asondele phinda kabini, yinto efutshane kakhulu ekuqinisekisweni kweemathematika oyifumana kwihlabathi lezemali ukuba inani lakho lokubuyela ngonyaka wama-25-50 landa.
Uninzi lwabatyalo-mali abanolwazi bayazi le nto. Ngelishwa, izandla zabo ziboshwe ngenxa yokuba zigwetywa ngabaxumi bexesha elifutshane abanomdla ngamnye unyaka, okanye iibhenkmarks zenyanga nenyanga. Ukuba babeza kuzama ukuziphatha ngendlela engqiqweni, baya kukhishwa. Bambalwa abaya kuhlala nekhosi nabo.
Kucacile, unako ukuhlala unamasheya angama-100 ukuba uthanda. Kulula kakhulu kwilizwe leekomishini eziphantsi kweendleko. Abantu bakwenza oko lonke ixesha. Umlondolozi waseVermont wadlulela kunyaka odlulileyo waza washiya iiligidi eziyi-8 zezigidi zeenqwelo-mpahla kwiinkampani ezingama-95. Ngaphandle koko, ungayinakukungaziboni konke oku kwaye uthenge i-index index kuba kukho izizathu ezinhlanu ukuba mhlawumbi zikhetha zakho zilungileyo nangona indlela iguqulwa ngayo kwiminyaka embalwa edluleyo eguqule ngokukodwa uhlobo lwalo mveliso.