I-Bond Bear Market Guide

Ngoxa kungekho mntu uyazi ngokuqinisekileyo oko kuza kuza kwikamva xa kuziwa kwiimarike zezemali, izivuno ezisezantsi zanamhlanje - kunye nesidingo sokuba i- US Federal Reserve iqale ukunyusa izinga lentengo ngexesha elithile elikude-libonisa ukuba iibhondi zijoliswe ukuvelisa imbuyekezo engaphantsi kwiminyaka ezayo.

Ukuba le minyaka emihlanu ukuya kweyishumi ezayo ngokwenene iya kumisa ngexesha eliphantsi ukuya kwii-market bond bond, abatshali-mali abaninzi baya kufuna ukufumana iindlela zokukhusela iiphothifoliyo zabo kwiimpembelelo zokuhla.

Ngaloo nto engqondweni, nasi isikhokelo esincinane sokubonelela into enokuthi-kwaye andinako-isebenze kakuhle ukuba iibhondi zingena kwimakethe yeebhere.

Gxininisa kwiMigangatho emfutshane, Gwema iibhondi zexesha elide

Izibophelelo zexesha elifutshane azithandeki, kwaye aziboneli ngokubanzi endleleni yokuvelisa. Nangona kunjalo, nazo ziyi-investment ezinqongileyo ezingenakukwazi ukubona ilahleko ezinkulu kwiimarike zebhere. Ngokwahlukileyo, izibophelelo zangexesha elide zinomngcipheko omkhulu wenzalo kunobungozi bexesha elifutshane, oku kuthetha ukuba ukunyuka kwamazinga okutsalwa komsebenzi kunokuba nakho ukuchoboza iziphumo zabo zokusebenza .

Khawuqwalasele oku: Ngethuba lokusukela ngoMeyi 1 ukuya kuJulayi 31, 2013, imarike yebhondi yahlulwa kanzima njengoko isivuno kwi-note-year-year sanyuka ukusuka kwi-1.64% ukuya kwi-2.59%. (Qhubeka ukhumbule, amaxabiso kunye nezivuno zihambelana nezikhokelo ezichaseneyo .) Ngelo xesha, iVanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (BLV) yahlaselwa yilahleko ye-10.1%, ngelixa iVanguard Ixesha elide leBond ETF (BIV) lahla %.

Ngexesha elifanayo, nangona kunjalo, iVanguard iXesha elifutshane elifutshane ne-ETF (BSV) lawela ngo-0.6% kuphela.

Oku kunceda kubonisa ukuba ngelixa iibhondi zexesha elifutshane aziyi kukukwenza imali kwimarike yeebhere, akunakwenzeka kakhulu ukuba alahlekelwe yilahleko ephezulu kunabo abahlala ixesha elide. Ukubeka nje: ukuba ufuna ukuhlala ukhuselekile, hlala.

Gwema ii-Asset-Risk Assets

Azikho zonke iigqeba zeemakethe ezibophekileyo ezisabela ngendlela efanayo kwinqanaba elifanayo le-stimuli. Ngethuba lexesha, umzekelo, amacandelo aneengcipheko eziphezulu zemali-njengawo- mali aphezulu kunye neentlobo eziphezulu zoveliso- abonise ukukwazi ukugqithisa xa kuthengiswa ixesha elide. Kukho enye into engayenza, nangona kunjalo: isantya apho isivuno sikhula khona.

Ukuba ukulungiswa okuphantsi kwexabiso kumabhondi kubonakala kancane kancane kwithuba elongezelelweyo, kunokwenzeka ukuba ezi ntlobo zee-asethi zingakwazi ukukhupha umgangatho ngenxa yokuba, ngokwengxenye, kwintlalo enikezelwa zivuno eziphezulu . Nangona kunjalo, ukuba i-market yebhanki ifumana ukuthengiswa okukhawuleza ngokukhawuleza-njengaleyo eyenzekayo kuma-80s, ngo-1994, kunye nekota yesibini ka-2013-ke le mimandla ingabangela ukungaphumeleli okukhulu.

Abatyalo-mali kufuneka, ngoko ke, batye kwiimarike ngesicwangciso esilungele imeko. Cinga ngemali kule mimandla, kodwa khangela ezinye iinketho ezinokuzimela-kuquka ne- short-term bond-bond bond bond , ezinika ukuhlanganiswa kwemveliso efanelekileyo kunye nomngcipheko wezinga lomncinci, okanye ezikhuselekileyo kwiimali ezikhuselekileyo, ezikhuselekile kwindlela ethile imihla yokukhula.

Kwakhona, ukuyidlala ngokuzenzekelayo - kunokuba uthathe ingozi enkulu kumzamo wokuthabatha imbuyekezo eyongezelelweyo-iya kuba negama lomdlalo kwiimarike zeebhere.

Musa ukuwa kwi-Bond-Proxy Trap

Elinye iqela elithandwayo lezenzo ngexesha lokuhlawula ixabiso eliphantsi liye lifuna ukufumana amathuba kwiimali ezihlawulelwayo ezihlawulelanayo kunye nokutyalomali oluxubileyo ezifana nezitokhwe ezikhethiweyo kunye nezibophelelo eziguqulwayo . Ezi ntalo-mali ziyenzile kakuhle ngo-2010-2012, kodwa zenze iphutha: oko kuthiwa "ama-proxies bond" banomngcipheko ophezulu kunezibophelelo, kwaye banokuthi bangaphantsi kwimivuzo yokunyuka kwamazinga. Enyanisweni, oku kunjalo kanye okwenzeka kwikota yesibini ka-2013 . Abatyalomali abakhangela ngaphandle kweemarike ezibophelelweyo kwimali engenayo abayi kufumana ukhuseleko kule mimandla.

Ubhedu olungcono kakhulu: musa ukuthatha ingozi ehambelana nemarike yemasheya-nokuba kungenokuba "utyalo-mali" oluthile-ngaphandle kokuba unelungelo lokunyamezela ukumelana nokulahlekelwa kwexesha elifutshane.

Funda kabanzi malunga nobungozi bee-proxy apha .

Iingxowa-mali eziNcinane ezifunekayo

Abatyalomali abaninzi bakhetha imali yeenkcazo kwiindleko zabo eziphantsi kunye nokuqikelela ukuqikelela, kodwa imarike yeebhere yisizathu sokuqwalasela oku kutyalo-mali:

Izibophelelo zomntu ngamnye ziPhezulu olungcono kuneeNgxowa kwiMarike ephantsi

Ngokungafani neengxowa-mali, izibophelelo zomntu ngamnye zinomhla wokukhula. Oku kuthetha ukuba kungakhathaliseki ukuba kwenzekani kwiimarike ezibopheleleyo, abatyali-mali baqinisekisiwe ukuba bafumane ukubuyiswa kweenqununu ngaphandle kokuba umnikeli angenzi phantsi kwetyala lakhe. UDaniel Putnam we-InvestorPlace ubhala kwinqaku yakhe ka-Agasti ka-2013, "Indlela Eyona Ntle Yokutshala imali kwiibhondi ngexesha lokuhlala phantsi,":

"Izibophelelo zomntu ngamnye ... zinikela ngeenzuzo ezibini ezibalulekileyo. Okokuqala, abatyali-zimali abagxininisa amabhondi aphezulu kunye nobuhle obuphantsi bokungagqibekanga banako ukunciphisa okanye ukuphelisa ilahleko eziphambili ezinokubakho ngeengxowa-mali. Nangona isivuno sikhula ngokukhawuleza, abatyali-mali banokulala ubusuku besazi ukuba ukunyuka kweemarike akuyi kuthatha inkokhelo kwi-savings-earned. Okwesibini, ukunyuka kwamazinga okunokwenene kuya kusebenza ekuncediseni abatyali-mali kwiibhondi ngabanye ngokuvumela ukuba bathenge amasheya aphakamileyo aphakamileyo njengokuba abanamalungelo abo asebenza ngoku. Kwiindawo ezibuhlungu zokubuyisela, ukubaluleka kwezi zimbini zimbonakalo azikwazi ukugqithiswa. "

Ngokuqinisekileyo kuyindlela yokuqwalasela, kodwa lungele uzinike ixesha elifanelekileyo lokwenza uphando olufanelekileyo.

Ngaphantsi

Nangona i-market yebhere ayikho into eqinisekileyo, kuyacaca ukuba iingxaki zokubuya kwexesha elizayo zize zixhomekeke kwiingxaki zokubuyela kwiimeko eziphezulu zokubuyisela ezenza u-2010-2012. Abatyalomali - ingakumbi abo basekhaya okanye kufuphi nomhlalaphantsi - ngoko, kufuneka baqwalasele iindlela zokukhusela iiphothifoliyo zabo kwiimeko ezinzima kakhulu.

Ukuziphendulela : Ulwazi olukule ndawo lunikezelwa ngeenjongo zengxoxo kuphela, kwaye akufanele lithathwe njengengcebiso-mali. Ngaphandle kweemeko ngaba le nkcazelo ibonisa isincomo sokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa iziqinisekiso. Soloko ubonisana nomcebisi-mali kunye neengcali zerhafu ngaphambi kokuba utyale.