Kugcine ukuhlaziywa ngoSeptemba 2014
Enye yezintlu zokutyalomali kukuba ingozi enkulu inokubuya ngokuphindaphindiweyo, kodwa le ntlukwano iyasebenza kakhulu kwiimpahla ezingaphezu kwezinto ezinxulumene nazo, ngakumbi xa kuziwa engozini yemingcipheko yemali (oko kukuthi, ukunyanzeliswa kwebhanki okanye ibhondi impendulo kwiinguqu ezikhoyo).
Nangona ukufumana umngcipheko omkhulu wenzalo kubangelwa ukuba kubuyiselwe imali ephakamileyo yabatyalo-zimali kwixesha ukususela ngo- 1982 ukuya ku-2013 , oko akuthethi ukuguqulela oko abatshali-mali bangalindela kwixesha elizayo .
Ukuthengiswa Okubambisana nokubuyiswa kweNkcitho, kunye neNdima yobungozi bobabini
Umbandela obaluleke kakhulu wokuqonda umngcipheko wemarike yontengiso kukuqonda ukuba kukho ulwalamano oluhlukileyo phakathi komngcipheko kunye nokuveliswa kunokuba kukho phakathi kwengozi kunye nokubuya okupheleleyo .
Isizathu sengozi kunye nesivuno sinobudlelwane obusondeleyo kukuba abatyali-mali bafuna isinxephezelo ngokuthatha ingozi eyongeziweyo. Ukuba ukhuseleko oluthile lunomngcipheko omkhulu wezinga lentengo okanye ngaphezulu (oko kukuthi, ubukhulu obuphezulu kwimpilo yomniki-bhondi okanye utshintsho kwimbono yezoqoqosho ), abatyali-mali baya kufuna umvuno ophezulu. Ngenxa yoko, izitrato ezikhutshwe nguorhulumente ozinzile okanye iinkampani ezinkulu zivame ukuba nezivuno ezingaphantsi kwee-average, ngelixa iibhonkethi ezikhutshwe ngamazwe amancinci okanye iinkampani zivame ukuba nezivuno ezingaphezulu kwe-average.
Ngaloo nto uthe, abatyali-mali abanako ukulindela umngcipheko kunye nokubuya okupheleleyo (oko kukuthi, isivuno +/- xabiso xabiso) ukuhamba ngonaphakade ngamaxesha onke - nangona oko bekuye kwenzeka kwimeko yonke emarike, iminyaka emashumi amathathu kwiibhondi.
Cinga umyinge weminyaka emihlanu yembuyekezo yeemali ezintathu zeVanguard ngo-Ephreli 30, 2013, ngaphambi kokuba i-market bond bondle ithathaka:
- I-Vanguard Ixesha elifutshane le-ETF (BSV): 3.02%
- I-Vanguard I-Bond yeBanga eliphakathi kwe-ETF (BIV): 6.59%
- I-Long-Term Bond ETF (BLV): 9.39%
Ezi manani zibonisa ukuba ewe, ixesha elide ukukhula kotyalo-mali lwakho, ukubuyiswa okunamandla okwakungayinandipha kule xesha elithile. Kodwa kubalulekile ukugcina engqondweni ukuba eli lixesha lokukhupha izibopho . ( Ixabiso kunye nezivuno zihamba kwindlela echaseneyo .) Xa kuveliswa isivuno, ubuhlobo phakathi kobude bokukhula kunye nokubuya okupheleleyo kuya kuguqulwa kwentloko.
Oku kuboniswa yintoni eyenzeka kwiinyanga ezintandathu ezizayo. Ukususela ngo-Apreli 30 ukuya kuSeptemba 30, 2013 , ukuveliswa kwezibophelelo zangexesha elide kwanyuka nge- 10 ye-US Treasury note ekhupha i-1.67% ukuya kwi-2.62% ebonisa ukuhla kwehla kwamanani). Nazi iimbuyekezo zezo zi-ETF ezifanayo ngelo xesha:
- I-Vanguard Ixesha elifutshane leBond ETF: -0.41%
- I-Vanguard I-Bond yexesha elide ETF: -4.70%
- I-Vanguard I-Bond yexesha elide ETF: -10.76%
Oku kusitshela ukuba ngelixa ukhonkco luvelisa kwaye ukhula luba nolwalamano olusisigxina (olude lukhula, lukhuphule isivuno), ubudlelwane obuphakathi kokukhula kunye nokubuyela ngokupheleleyo kuxhomekeke kwisikhokelo somyinge. Ngokukodwa, izibophelelo zexesha elifutshane ziza kunika ibuyiselo ezingcono kunezibonda zesikhathi eside xa izivuno zikhula , ngoxa iibhondi zexesha elide ziza kunika ibuyiselo elingcono kunabo bonke abafutshane bexesha xa izivuno ziwela .
Amanani
Ngalokhu konke oku kuthiwa, nakhu iinani zembali zezigaba ezahlukeneyo zokukhula, njengoko kuboniswe kwiNombolo yeeNkcazo ze-Morningstar yokubuyisela inombolo ngo-Septemba 30, 2014:
| Udidi | Unyaka-1 | Unyaka-3 | Unyaka-5 |
| Ixesha elifutshane elifutshane | 0.77% | 1.17% | 1.35% |
| Ixesha elifutshane | 1.47% | 1.85% | 2.50% |
| Ixesha eliphakathi | 4.34% | 3.41% | 4.80% |
| Ixesha elide | 7.09% | 3.30% | 5.92% |
Xa uqwalasela la manani, gcinani engqondweni ukuba iinombolo zokusebenza ezidlulileyo zeemali kunye neendidi zingatshintsha ngokukhawuleza, kwaye ngoko, unokukhohlisa .
Yintoni oku kuthetha ngayo kuwe
Isifundo esibaluleke kakhulu apha kukuba kubalulekile ukugcina engqondweni ukuba ukuba i- market bull in bonds ends and rates begin to move higher for a long extension, abatshali-mali abayi kukwazi ukufumana uhlobo olufanayo lokungaphumeleli kwi-long-term izibophelelo abazenzayo ngexesha lokusukela ngo-2008 ukuya ku-2012.
Enyanisweni, into eyahlukileyo iya kuba yinyani.
Umgca ongundoqo: ungacingi ukuba utyalo-mali kwisikhwama-mboleko esinde ixesha elide liyikitikhi ekuphumeni kwexesha elide nje ngenxa yokuba kunesivuno esiphezulu.
Ukuziphendulela : Ulwazi olukule ndawo lunikezelwa ngeenjongo zengxoxo kuphela, kwaye akufanele lithathwe njengengcebiso-mali. Ngaphandle kweemeko ngaba le nkcazelo ibonisa isincomo sokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa iziqinisekiso. Soloko ubonisana nomcebisi-mali kunye neengcali zerhafu ngaphambi kokuba utyale.