Kutheni ukuqhuma nje kungekho kwiCards
Kukho ingxaki enye nale ndlela yokucinga, nangona kunjalo: ayiyi kuyenza ingqiqo.
Enyanisweni, iimpendulo zeemarike zentengiso kwizinto ezibonakalayo ze-Fed rate ziya kuhamba ngokukhawuleza. Esikhundleni sokuphazamiseka ngokukhawuleza, okukrakra, izibhondi ziyakwazi ukuxinezeleka kwexabiso lentlawulo ngexesha elide. Oku kufuneke kubangele ukungabi nantoni ephezulu kunye nexesha elide lokubuyiselwa okuphantsi, kodwa ukuphazamiseka kokuchithwa ngokuthe ngqo kuncinci.
Akukho zimbalwa ezithandathu ezibangela ukuba kutheni le nto:
Ukuphazamiseka Kwemakethe yeBond ye-Bond Ithawula ukuba ayikho
Ukujonga emva kwimbali yokubuyisela ibhondi-mali-bakala ibonisa irekhodi lomzila wokuzinza kwiminyaka engama-30 edlulileyo. Into esondeleyo ekuqhubekeni kwenzeke ngo-1994 xa iPolisi engalawulwa kakubi ngokunyusa amazinga ngokukhawuleza, kodwa ke ngoko ilahleko yayingu-2.9% kuphela.
Abagxeki baya kuqaphela ukuba ixesha elilandeleleneyo leminyaka eli-30 libandakanya i-market bond bond, kwaye kunjalo. Ngoko ibhweke leebhere libukeka njani? Abatyalomali bayakhumbula ukuba ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yee-1970 kwakukho ixesha elichazwe ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso emveliso-imeko ebaluleke kakhulu kwi-market bond.
Iibhondi ziphendule ngokungahambi kakuhle, kodwa nangona kunjalo, ilahleko zazizithobekile. Ngokwe-database egciniwe ngu-Aswath Damodaran kwi-SU School of Stern School ye-Business, inqaku le- US Treasury yeminyaka eli-10 livelise ukubuyiswa kweemali ezilandelayo ukusuka kunyaka ngamnye wekhalenda ukususela ngo-1977 ukuya ku-1980: 1.29%, -0.78%, 0.67%, kunye - 2.99%.
Kuyavunywa, izivuno zaphakama ngoko-kuthetha ukuba kwakukho umvuno omkhulu wokunciphisa ukwehla kwamanani. Sekunjalo, amanani abonisa ukuba akukho kuphazamiseka kwenzeka nakwiemeko ezingathandekiyo zokugqibela ezingama-70 - kwaye abatyali-mali abangaphezu kwexesha elibuthathaka kunye neentlawulo ezinamandla ezenzeka kwiminyaka ezayo.
Iintlobo zeeNkcazo zokuThuthuka ziNdaba eyaziwayo
Esi sizathu esona sibalulekileyo sokuba kutheni umakethi weekhonkco unobungozi kakhulu. Ngokuqhelekileyo, iimarike zibonisa kuphela ukunyanzeliswa kwezobudlova kwizinto ezikumangalisa kwaye kungekhona kwimibandela eyaziwayo kwangaphambili.
Xa kuziwa kwizinga leFed rate, le yinto yokugqibela. Ukususela ngo-2013, iimarike ziyazi ukuba imeko ebonakalayo kukuba i-Fed yayiza kuqala ukunyuka kwamazinga phakathi no-2015 . Oku kuye kwabashiya abatyalo-mali ukuba baninzi ixesha lokuba balungiselele, kwaye kususa into ebamangalisayo kwi-equation. Nangona ixesha lokunyuka kokuqala lihlala liyinqobo kwiimarike, ungalindelanga ukuhla kwehla kwiiveki ezikhokelela kwisibhengezo se-Fed sokuthi ikhulisa iirhafu, okanye nangomhla wezaziso ngokwazo. Iimarike aziphendulanga ngaloo ndlela kwiimeko ezilindeleke ngaphambili kwangaphambili.
Intengiso sele iphendule kwiShift kwiProgram yeFed
Ukulindela ukuba i-Fed iza kuphakamisa amaxabiso sele ibonakaliswe kwixabiso lentengiso.
Nangona iibhondi zexesha elide zenze kakuhle kakhulu kwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo, isivuno kwi-note ye-US Treasury yeminyaka emibili ivukile .
Ekubeni inqaku eliyiminyaka emibili lugqithiso oluninzi olubhekiselele kumgaqo-nkqubo we-Fed, ukunqanyulwa kwawo kwintsebenzo yexesha elide kubonisa ukuba abatyali-mali sele bebeke ukubeka amazinga okuhamba. Inyaniso yokuba abatyali-mali batshintshe iiphothifoliyo zabo kwangaphambili kakhulu kuncitshiswe kakhulu imingcipheko ye-crash, edlalwa kuphela xa abatshali-mali bonke bezama ukubetha umnyango wokuphuma ngexesha elifanayo.
I-Fed ibukela iMakethe ngokukhawuleza
Kwakhona kubalulekile ukugcina engqondweni ukuba kulungelelaniso lwe-Fed ukuba lingathathi nantoni na izakukhokelela kwi-market crash. Nasiphi na isigqibo esingaziphazamisa iimarike zezemali ziyakudla kwi-economic, okuya kuthi iphoqe iFed ukulungelelanisa umgaqo wayo.
Ekubeni iFed ifuna ukuphepha loo mphumo, ngokucacileyo, yenza yonke imizamo yokunxibelelanisa izigqibo zayo zomgaqo-nkqubo nokulungiselela iimarike ixesha kunye nobukhulu benani lentengo. Oku kuphelisa into eyenzileyo, njengoko-njengoko kuphawuliwe kwangaphambili - kunciphisa iimeko zokuphazamiseka.
Uxinzelelo lwee-Overseas Ugcina i-Lid kwiiRhafu
Njengoko kuxoxwa apha , i-market bond ye-bonds yase-US ayisebenzi kwi-vacuum. Kwaye ngoku, i-Europe's economic breakdown - kunye ne-slide ebonakalayo enobungozi (okungukuthi, amaxabiso awela kunokuba akhuphuke) - iqhube izivuno kwilizwe lonke. Oku kwenza isivuno esiphezulu kwiimarike ze-Nondyebo yase-United States zikhangeleke, kwaye lidala umthombo weemfuneko eziza kubathengi xa umvuno ukhuphuka ngokukhawuleza. Ukuthabatha: xa nje iYurophu iyanzima, iimeko zokungabikho kwemakethe yebhanki e-United States ziphantsi kakhulu.
Abatyalomali bajongwa kwi-"Crash"
Le nto yinto engaphantsi kweengxoxo kwiingxoxo ngeemarike ezibophelelweyo. Abanini-zimali abaninzi baye bahlala kwi-market-stroke ye-stock market ngo-2001-2002 kunye no-2007-2008, kwaye banamava amaninzi athengisa ukuthengiswa kweemarike ezithengiswayo entwasahlobo ka-2013. Ezi ziganeko ziye zakhuthaza ukwenziwa koyiko phakathi kwabatyalo-mali, kwaye loyiko zondliwa ngamabali angapheliyo okuphazamiseka kwizinto ezinobungozi, izibophelelo eziphezulu , ukuthengiswa kwebakala, kunye nokunye.
Inyani kukuba i-athikili ethi "Okunye okufanayo" ayiyi kufumana nayiphi na incwadi yokufunda, kodwa enye ebizwa ngokuba "Kutheni iMakethe yePakethe isondele!" Ngokuqinisekileyo iya. Ngako-ke, abatyalo-mali ngabanye, kufuneka bathathe iingxoxo ngeentlekele zentengiso ngeyona (enkulu kakhulu) ityityu.
Ngaphantsi
Yongeza, kwaye ukuphazamiseka akunakwenzeka. Ixesha elithatha ixesha elifutshane lembuyekezo eliphantsi liphantse liqiniseke, ukunyaniseka okuphezulu kunokwenzeka, kwaye i- market yebhere ingaba ngamakhadi. Nangona kunjalo, iimeko ezinzima kakhulu malunga nohlobo lwenkathazo oza kuzibona ngokubhekiselwe kwiinkcukacha zezezimali. Ngoko qwalasela iindlela zokubeka iiphothifoliyo yakho kwimo engatshintshiyo, kodwa ungavumeli ukwesaba intengiso yeekhonkco zebhanki kukuphucule.