Funda nge-US Federal Reserve Dot Plot

Isicwangciso se-dot dot siyi-news release key

Umgaqo-nkqubo we-US Federal Reserve ubaluleke kakhulu kwiimarike zezimali zehlabathi lonke, ngoko ke naluphi na ukuqonda kwizinto ezixhaswa yi-Fed zihlala zifumana ingqwalasela enkulu kubatyalomali. Yingakho i-"dot plot" yenkxaso yeFusion ibe enye yeendaba ezibukelwa kakhulu kuninzi kwiminyaka.

Yintoni i-Dot Pllot?

Isicatshulwa esicacisiweyo sishicilelwe emva kweentlanganiso nganye zeFed. Ibonisa ukubonakala kwamalungu angama-16 e-Federal Open Market Committee (i-FOMC), iqumrhu lokubeka izinga ngaphakathi kweFed.

Isicatshulwa ngasinye simele nembono yelungu apho ixabiso lemali elixhasayo kufuneka libe ngasekupheleni kweemali zekhalenda ezahlukahlukeneyo kuboniswe, kunye nakwixesha elide-intengo yezinga lemali elondliwe emva kokuba iFed iqedile ukuqinisa okanye "i-normalizing" policy kumanqanaba alo angoku. Isalathisi senkcazo simelela umzamo oqhubekayo we-Fed wokuba obala ngokubhekiselele kwimigaqo yayo.

2018 Ulindelwe

Ukulindela kwamalungu kumyinge kwiirhafu ukushaya ii-2 ekhulwini ukuya kuma-2.25 ekhulwini ekupheleni konyaka we-2018, kwaye mhlawumbi uphakamileyo njengama-2.75 ekhulwini ngexesha elide. Iinjongo ezikhoyo ngoku kwinqanaba lemali elondliwe li-1.25 ukuya kwi-1.5 ekhulwini.

Okubaluleke ngaphezu kwenani elipheleleyo leempembelelo zelungu le-FOMC likhokelo lentshukumo. Ngamafutshane, abatyali-mali bafuna ukwazi ukuba i-FOMC ixhomekeke kumgaqo-mali wezemali kunye nokunciphisa amaxabiso, okanye umgaqo-nkqubo onzima-oko kuya kuthetha ukunyuka kwamazinga. Ngokomzekelo, ukutshintshela kumazinga aphakamileyo kwinqanaba lomatshini ngo-Matshi 2014 kukhokelela ekuthengisweni kwexesha elifutshane kwiimpahla zombini kunye nezibophelelo, ukubonakalisa ukwesaba kootyali-mali ukuba i-Fed ingakhuphula amaxabiso kungekudala kunokuba kulindeleke.

Isicatshulwa samacwecwe samanje sibandakanya izicwangciso ze-2018, 2019, 2020, kunye nexesha elide. Kulindeleke ukuba ireyiti yemali yesigqeba iya kuhlala kuma-2.1 ekhulwini ekupheleni kuka-2019.

Oko i-Dot Pllot ayikho

Hlalani nikhumbula xa ukhangela ityati ukuba ichaphaza ngalinye limela imbono yelungu loluhlu apho amaxabiso kufuneka abe ngelo xesha.

Ikhonkco labo liphakathi kwendawo. Ngamanye amazwi, amachaphaza akufanele athathwe ukuba amele ukuba ilungu lijolise kuloo nani.

Kwakhona kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba i-Fed ihlala ixhomekeke kwi-data, iguqula umgaqo-nkqubo wayo ngokusekelwe kwimizila yezoqoqosho, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye neziganeko zehlabathi. Kwimeko apho kukho ukuphuhliswa okukhulu kunjengokuhlaselwa kwamagorha, ukukhula kwezomnotho okunzulu, okanye ukugxuma okubukhali kwimali yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, amalungu aya kutshintsha amacebo avela kwinqanaba lawo langoku. Ngenxa yoko, ukucwangciswa kwexesha elide kwinqanaba lesicatshulwa kuthwala ubuncinane kunabo basondeleyo ngoku.

Ekugqibeleni, ubulungu beFOMC buguquka kwaye bujikeleza phakathi kweebhanki zamalungu ahlukeneyo kwinkqubo. Ngamanye amagama, abantu abasemva kwamachaphazi batshintsha ixesha-esinye esinye isiseko sokutshintshwa kwendawo yecwecwe.

Ezinye izinto

Ayikho indlela yokuxelela ukuba yeyiphi idibanti yeliphi ilungu, ngoko abatyali-mali abasenalo ngokwenene ukuba bunzima bunjani ukufakela kwinqanaba elingaphandle kwinqanaba elithile. Akukho naluphi na uphawu olubonisa ukuba yi-2018 Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Ngokuqhelekileyo, oku akuyi kubavumi ukuba abathathi-nxaxheba beemarike bafunde ngokubanzi kwimimiselo ethile eveliswa yinto nganye entsha ye-iteration yenqwelwana.

Iimali-mali zeBond zimele zilindele ukuba ukukhutshwa kuya kuba ngumthombo omtsha wokungabikho kwemakethi emva kwentlanganiso nganye ye-Fed. Lowo owayengumongameli we-Fed uJanet Yellen waxwayisa ukuba abantu "abafanele bajonge isicatshulwa njengento eyona ndlela iKomiti ikhetha ngayo kuluntu ngokubanzi."

Ngaphantsi

Khawuqwalasele isicatshulwa njengento enye ongayisebenzisa ukuze wenze izigqibo zokutshala imali, kodwa-njengokuba kunjalo nasiphi na isibonakaliso esisodwa-qaphela ukuba ungayifunde kakhulu kuyo.