Chaza umthamo omkhulu kwaye uyisebenzise ukuze uzuze.
UJason Pearce ungumdlali oneminyaka engama-25 wemveliso yexesha elizayo. Udlale indima yokuthengisa umthengisi, umlawuli olawulayo inkampani yomrhweba, umlobi wencwadana / umhleli, umthengisi, inkqubo yokurhweba / umqhubi we-algorithm kunye nomhlalutyi weemarike. Unokufumana uJason kwi-www.intermarketconnections.com.
Umendo olula
Xa kuthengiswa kunye nokutyalomali, umbuzo wokuqala umntu kufuneka uphendule ngawo: Nguwuphi umkhwa wemakethe yemasheya?
Ukuba awufumani lo mbuzo, yonke imibuzo kunye nempendulo elandelayo ayikho nto.
UWilliam waseOckham, isazi sefilosofi senkulungwane yeshumi elinesi-14, ubizwa ngokuba ngumgaqo wokuthi impendulo elula kakhulu. Inguqulelo yanamhlanje ngumgaqo we-KISS. Oku akunakwenzi malunga ne-1970 ye-rock band, nangona i-Gene Simmons ingaba ngumnini-mveliso ngoku. Isichazamazwi simele sigcine ilula, isisithulu. Abathengisi bezobugcisa basebenzisa lo mgaqo ngokugxila kwinto enye kuphela: Ixabiso. Ayifumani lula kunoko.
Ukujonga iMacro
Xa ugqiba umendo, umntu kufuneka anqume ukuba yeyiphi ixesha lokugxila kulo. Siyakholwa ukuba abathengisi kuwo onke amaxesha kufuneka baqaphele indlela yokuziphatha. Ukuba ubekwe kwicala elifanayo njengoko urhwebo lwandisa imiphumo yakho yempumelelo ngoko kungabikho-brainer. Nangona umthengisi we-contrarian kufuneka aqaphele umkhwa omkhulu ukuqonda ukuba unamandla kangakanani umlambo ukuba uyabhukuda.
Drumroll, Nceda
Nantsi indlela elula ukujonga indlela yokuziphatha: Qhathanisa intengo yemali ye-S & P 500 ukuya kwi -average-10-bar yokuhamba ehambayo (MA). Isithuba sokugqibela seenyanga ngaphezu kwenyanga ye-10-bar MA (nge-15-pts) ithetha ukuba i-maritime iphakamileyo; Ukuvalwa kweenyanga-ngaphantsi kwe-MA-bar-bar MA (nge-15-pts) ithetha ukuba kusemgangathweni.
Ulibale ngempembelelo yoqoqosho lwe-China, imivuzo yekota, iMigaqo ye-interest rate ye-Fed, kunye neempawu ze-Blood Moon. Ixabiso liyilo elilodwa kuphela lokuba ngaba sithengisa imarike kwi-uptrend okanye kwi-downtrend.
Sebenzisa i-S & P 500 yemali ukufumanisa umgangatho weemarike ngokubanzi. Nangona ungatyalwanga kwi-S & P okanye isalathisi , ukwazi ukuba yonke imveliso yentengo yeevenkile isisigxina esibalulekileyo sokuba ingafakwa okanye ayiyi kutyalomali kwisitokethi ngasinye. Iipokethi zakho zentengo zinethuba elingcono lokusebenza xa umgangatho jikelele weemarike ukhula.
Indlela yokuSebenzisa ngayo
Nazi iindlela ezintathu umrhwebi angasebenzisa ngalo mqondiso:
1. Ekupheleni kwenyanga ekupheleni kwenyanga ye-10-bar MA, hamba ixesha elide. Phuma ekupheleni kwenyanga ekufutshane nge-10-bar MA.
2. Ekupheleni kwenyanga ekufutshane ne-10-bar ye-MA yenyanga, hamba. Phuma kwiphepha lokugqibela kwenyanga ngaphezu kwe-10-bar MA.
Abanye bathi icandelo elifutshane libahwebi ngesisu esisengozini kunye nokungabi nantoni. Oku kunento eninzi yokwenza kunye nokuphakanyiswa kwesimo kunye nesimo sokuma kunezikhokelo zorhwebo. Nangona kunjalo, icala elifutshane lichasene nobume benkcazo ukuba luqhube phezulu ngaphezu kwexesha elide. Sekunjalo, umqondiso wabonakalisa ukubaluleka xa waphendukela kwikhampasi emva kweentonga ezinkulu ngo-2000 no-2007.
Indlela ekhuselekileyo yokusebenzisa le mqondiso iyakukhangela imali xa uphawu lwe-downtrend lubonakala. Kungcono ukuba uphume ukuba ufuna ukuba ungaphakathi, kunokuba ube ufuna ukuba uphume!
3. Sebenzisa i-bar ye-10 ye-bar ye-MA njengenqaku lokungena kwexabiso kwiisetu zezorhwebo ngexesha lokuhamba. Kwi-uptrend, i-pullback engezantsi kwimizuzu engama-10 ye-bar MA ingabonelela abathengisi ngokuseta ukuba bahambe ixesha elide ukuba i-marhwebo iqala ukubuyiswa. Beka isithintelo sokuthengisa esezantsi ngaphantsi kokulungiswa okuphantsi kwaye usebenzise ukuphela kwenyanga ngaphantsi kwe-MA-bar-bar MA njengendlela yokuphuma. I-inverse isebenza xa iphelisa imarike.
I-Current Trend
Agasti iphelile ngokuvalwa kwenyanga ekupheleni kwenyanga ye-10-bar MA ngethuba lokuqala ukususela ngoDisemba 2011, okubonisa ukuba imarike yatshintshela kwi-downtrend. Abahwebi kufuneka babe ngokufutshane okanye ngemali.
Kuphela ukuphela kwenyanga ekufutshane emva kwenyanga ye-10-bar MA kuya kusinika 'konke kucace' ukuthenga kwakhona.
Nangona sisekhompilini yenkomo iminyaka engaphezu kweyesithandathu , iimpawu zokutshintshwa kwezinto ezihamba phambili ze-bearish ziyamkeleka. Isiganeko sokugqibela shintsho se-bearish senzeke ngo-Agasti 2011 kwaye imarike yawa enye i-12%. Ngaphambi koko, isignali yokuguquguquka kwesimo se-Meyi ngo-Meyi 2010 igcinwe ukubanjwa kwemakethe kwinqanaba elingaphandle kweenyanga ezintathu. Isibonakaliso sokuguqula isimo se-bhanya ngoDisemba 2007 sagqiba ngexesha elifanelekileyo njengoko lalifanekisela ukuwa kwezimali.
I-Next Switcheroo
Ukuguqula i-downtrend, i-S & P yemali idinga ukuphela kwenyanga ekufutshane emva kwe-MA-bar-bar MA. Oku kuya kuba yiindaba ezilungileyo! Sitshintshela kwinqanaba elide lamashishini. Kuthetha ukuba sisinda kwiinyanga zegazi ngaphandle kokuhlasela kweZombie. Esinye isalathisi esiphezulu siya kuba yinkampani enhle. Iimpawu zenguqu ezine zokuguqulwa kwezinto eziguqukayo ezenzeke ngaphezu kweminyaka elishumi elinesibini ezandelwayo zilandelwa yimihlangano yamanyaka / inyanga.
Iinyanga ezimbalwa ezilandelayo kufuneka zibe mnandi. Ukuba udlala amakhadi akho ngokufanelekileyo, kusenokuba luncedo. Qinisekisa ukuba uthengise kunye nomthamo ukwandisa iziphumo zakho zokuphumelela.
I-Credit Photo: Iphepha leBhodi iBumba / iMboniselo yeDialog / Getty Izithombe