Iimali zenzalo ziphakamisa ukukhathazeka ngabatyalo-mali malunga nokuba neebhanki kwiPortfolio
Ukunyuka kwamanani kwintsholongwane kubangele abatshali-mali abaninzi ukuba babuze ukuba iibhonkco zihlala zendawo kwindawo yokutshala imali. Umbuzo osemthethweni. Amanani omdla kunye neentengo zebhondi zihamba ngendlela echaseneyo. Xa amaxabiso enyukayo ekhuphuka, amaxabiso amabhondi awela. Le nyaniso inokuba nabanini-mali abanonophelo bazibuza ukuba ixesha lokuba i-adios iimbophe zabo.
Isiseko seBond
Iibhonkco ziphela ze-IOU ezikhishwe ngamashishini okanye oorhulumente.
Xa uthengisa ibhondi ye-5 iminyaka eyi-$ 10,000, umthengisi usebenzisa i-$ 10,000 kwilo xesha elithile, ngoxa ngexesha elinye lihlawula inzala yonyaka. Ekupheleni kwekota, aka, ukukhula kobungqina, ufumana imali yakho eyi-$ 10,000. Kwixesha elipheleleyo, uqokelele i-$ 500 / ngonyaka, (ama-5 ekhulwini kwi-10,000), kwaye inkokheli yakho yasekuqaleni yabuya. Enyanisweni, ukuba iqumrhu elikhupha i-bond liye laphuka okanye lihluthwa ngabaguquguquli, ulahlekelwa lwakho mali.
Ziqhelana kaninzi kangakanani iibhondi? Kuxhomekeke kubuhlobo bentambo. Iibhondi zaseburhulumenteni base-US ziyimilinganiselo yegolide yekhredithi. Ngokutsho kukaCarmen Reinhart kwisikolo saseHarvard saseKennedy, urhulumente wase-US akayekanga ukusukela ekupheleni kwee-1700. Oku kwenza ityala le-US "lingenalo ingozi." Noko ke, uninzi lwabanye oorhulumente baye bahlala bekhoboka, kuquka iGrisi neArgentina.
Izibophelelo zentsebenziswano zikwacetyiswa ukuba zinokuthi zingaphantsi kokungagqibekanga, kunye nomlinganiselo ongasetyenziswayo ongaphantsi kwama-½ weepesenti eziyi-1 kwiminyaka engama-50 edlulileyo.
I-high-yield okanye i-junk bonds ifake umfanekiso ohlukileyo, unomyinge oneminyaka engama-20 engama-default engama-3.9 ekhulwini.
Iimali zenzalo zinzima ukuqikelela
Ekuqaleni kuka-2014, ama-67 angama-67 kwezoqoqosho abachazwe kwiNgxelo ye-Bloomberg News yabika ukunyuka okukhulu kwiimali zenzalo zase-US njengoko zilinganiselwe yi-US 10-Year Treasury Bond .
Ekupheleni kwaloo nyaka, bonke abangama-67 kulabo bezoqoqosho babeyiphutha. NgoJanuwari 2014, i-10YT ibetha ama-3 ekhulwini. Ekupheleni konyaka, bekufuphi ukufikelela kuma-2 ekhulwini. Oops.
Iziprofeto ezifanayo ziye zasasazeka (kwaye ngokungafanelekanga) ukususela ngo-2010. Ngoko ke, kuthekani ukuba ungekho kwiimarike ezibophelelweyo kwiminyaka esixhenxe edlulileyo ukucinga ixabiso liya kuphakama? Ngengeniso, ubuya kuzuza malunga neepesenti ezingama-0.7 (iipesenti ezili-1 / ngonyaka i-X 7 iminyaka). Thelekisa loo ngqamaniso ye-bond yodidi lwe-ETF (AGG) yesigxina se-US, (AGG), esinokubuyiselwa kweepesenti ezingama-27 okanye iipesenti ezi-3.5 ngonyaka.
Musa ukungahambi kakuhle. Anditsho ukuba amazinga aya kunyuswa ukusuka kumazinga awangoku - u-Nondyebo we-10 weminyaka okwangoku ujikeleza malunga nama-2.5 ekhulwini. Ndiyathetha nje ukuba ukuqikelela kwinqanaba lomdla kunye nexesha lokuthengiswa kwemarike yontengiso kunzima nakwiingcali-njengokuba kunzima ukuqikelela ukuphakama kweemarike .
Azikho zonke iibhondi ezifanayo
Iibhondi ezahlukeneyo zithatha ngokungafaniyo nokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ixesha lokukhula, okanye ixesha, liyakunceda ukuqikelela ukuba ixabiso layo liya kuthintela njani utshintsho kwizinga lentengo. Ubunzima bexesha elide (iminyaka engama-30 yooNondyebo base-US) kuya kuwa ngama-17,7 ekhulwini xa amazinga omyinge ephakama iipesenti ezi-1 ngelixa iindleko ezihambayo zihlala zihlala zihleli.
Gcina ukhumbule ukuba oku akuyi ku-akhawunti yengeniso oyifumayo kwi-bond inyaka owenziwe. Ngoko ke, kwimeko yezibhanti zentlambo ejikelezayo, izibophelelo eziguqulwayo, kunye nezibophelelo eziphezulu zokuvunwa kwe-US, umvuzo osemyingeni (inzala) ehlawulwayo iya kubakhokela ezi zigaba kwiindleko zokubuya ezipheleleyo, nokuba zijongene nokukhula kwamanani.