I-Ruble Crisis kunye neempembelelo zayo
Ngomnyaka kamva, uqoqosho lwaseRashiya lwaluphezu kwenkxalabo kunye ne-ruble ewela ukurekhoda ngokungahambisani neemeti ezifana ne-dollar yase-US.
Isinqumo sebhanki esiphezulu seRashiya sokunyusa amaxabiso omyinge ngama-6.5% ahlulekile ukuphelisa umjikelo njengoko abatyali-mali belahlekelwa ukuzithemba ngemali. Nangona imali ifunyenwe ngandlela-thile ngo-2016, yayingasayi kubuyiselwa amandla ayo ngaphambi kokuba ihambe ngo-2017.
Amanani ehlayo eoli
Uqoqosho lwaseRashiya luhlala luxhomekeke kwintengo yeoli engcolileyo kunye negesi yendalo, ekubeni izinto eziphathekayo ziyingxenye ebalulekileyo yoqoqosho. Ngo-2013, ukuthunyelwa kweeyile ezingcolileyo kunye nemveliso ehambelana nokuthengiswa kweemveliso kubakho ngaphezu kweyesibini kwisithathu kwilizwe elizweni langaphandle kunye nengxenye engaphezulu kwesigqithiso semali yengeniso ka rhu lumente, oko kuthetha ukuba amanani aphantsi anganempembelelo enkulu kwezoqoqosho.
Ngo-2014, amaxabiso angamafutha angcolileyo awela malunga nama-50% ngenxa yemfuno ephantsi eYurophu-imarike ephambili yaseRashiya-kunye nokunyuka kwemveliso e-US Iyona nto inokubangela iingxaki zeRashiya, nangona kunjalo, mhlawumbi xa i- OPEC ibonise ukuba ayiyi kunqumla imveliso yayo ukunyusa amaxabiso ekupheleni konyaka-2014.
Nangona umbutho ekugqibeleni unqumle ukuveliswa kwemveliso, amaxabiso angamafutha angcolileyo awanakho ukufumana kwakhona kwiindawo eziphezulu.
Amanani amafutha angcolileyo aya kuhlala ecinezelekile ngekamva elibonakalayo. Ukuthotyelwa kwe-OPEC kungaphantsi kwamaphesenti ama-50 ngama-akhawunti amaninzi ukuba awukhupheli i-Kuwait ne-Saudi Arabia, ongenakukwazi ukuthatha uxanduva lokuzicima.
Imveliso ye-US shale ibonakalise ukuba iguquguquke ekuphenduleni ukuhla kwexabiso leoli, ngokungathi amanqanaba okuvelisa aye aqhubeka nokufudukela ngo-2017.
Iingozi zezobupolitika
Ingxaki yesibini yeRashiya ijongene nomgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle. Emva kokuhlasela i-Ukraine emva kokugqibela-ngoFebruwari 2014, i-US kunye ne-EU zenze izigwebo ezininzi zemali ezenze kube nzima kumafemu aseRussia ukuboleka phesheya. Ezi zigwebo zomeleleka emva kokuphazamiseka kwelo lizwe kumanyathelo okhetho lukaMongameli wase-US kunye no-2016 no-2017.
UMongameli uVladimir Putin uye wavuma ngokuvakalayo ukuba izigwebo zezoqoqosho zonakalisa kakubi umnotho. Ngaphezulu kwexesha elide, kukho imiqondiso yokuba le miqathango inokukhubaza iintsapho ukuba zibe nabantwana abaninzi, ezinokuba nefuthe elide elide. Ngolunye unyaka ka-2017, kuye kwaba neepesenti ezili-10 ukuya ku-15 ubudala, ngokutsho kweMigaqo-nkqubo yangaphandle.
Idrama yeDola
Ingxaki enkulu yesithathu isebenzisana neRashiya yaseRashiya yase-United States. Ngokubanjwa kweedola ezili-11 zeebhiliyoni kwi-ruble-denominated debt kunye ne-$ 60 yezigidi kwiedola-denominated debt, ilizwe lingagqiba ukuhlawula imali eninzi kwiiruble ukuhlawula ityala layo kwiidola zase-US. Emva kokuthengisa iibhiliyoni ezi-6 zeebhiliyoni kwiedola-dollar-denominated in June 2017, i-dollar yeerhafu yelizwe isetyenziswe ngokunyuka kakhulu.
Amatyala amaninzi eentengo zemboleko anqumle ukulinganiswa kwentengo yekredithi kwilizwe elingasemva kwe-Ukraine kunye ne-year-year. Ukungabi netembelo kwi-ruble ezitratweni zaseRashiya kunokunyusa ukwanda kweengxaki njengoko i-dollar yaseDelika iyanda ukusuka kubemi belizwe kunye nabatyalomali abafuna ukuhlawulwa kwiimbopheleleko zabo kwixesha elide.
Ukuya phambili
IRashiya yaphumelela ngempumelelo kwiminyaka emibini yokunyuka kwemali ngo-2016, kodwa ingxaki yezoqoqosho yelizwe ihlala. Kukhona ithuba elihle lomnye ukuhamba kwexesha elifutshane elisondeleyo ekuhambeni kwexesha ukuya ku-2017 kwaye kufuneka kwenziwe utshintsho lwezakhiwo ukukhusela iingxaki ezizayo. Ngokomzekelo, ezinye iingcali zibonisa ukutshintsha utsalo-mali kwizinto ezisemgangathweni kwizibonelelo zokusebenza kunye nenkunzi yoluntu ingafaka ilizwe kwikhondo elingcono.
Ngaphandle kwezidingo zophuhliso, uMphathiswa wezeMali waseRashiya uchithe isigxina se-Reserve Reserve yelizwe ukuhlawula amatyala kwaye azalise izibophelelo zebhajethi ngo-Disemba 2016.
Le ngxowa iwele kwi $ 50 ezigidigidi ekuqaleni kwe-2015 ukuya kwii-bhiliyoni ezili-16 zezigidigidi kuphela ekuqaleni kwe-2016. I-Bhanki yehlabathi kunye namanye amaziko aye axelele ukuba le miba ingaba nempembelelo embi kumandla karhulumente okubonelela ngabemi bayo.
Isiphelo
Ingxaki yeRuble yaseRussia yayinobangela obuninzi obubangela ukuba kubekho inkxalabo yokuzithemba, kuquka nezindleko zamandla eziwa, zenzeke ingozi ye-geopolitical , kunye nokwanda kweemfuno zeedola zase-US. Nge-ruble esayithengisa kufuphi ne-dollar yayo nge-US dollar ngowama-2017, ilizwe liyaqhubeka lihlupheka ngenxa yeengxaki ezifanayo ezibangele inkathazo kwaye ekugqibeleni zibangele inkathazo elandelayo.
Abatyalomali bamazwe ngamazwe bafuna ukuqaphela xa utyalomali eRashiya unikezela ingxaki ye-ruble kunye nesemva kwayo. I-dollar idalwe ityala ingaba nzima ukwenza inkonzo kwi-ruble, ngelixa ama-equity angayibonga ngenxa yokunyuka kwegunya lokuchitha imali phakathi kwabathengi kunye namashishini. Ezi ntshukumo zingaphumelela ekugqibeleni kwiinkathazo ezifanayo okanye ukuhlawuleza kwehla kwendlela.