Yintoni Eyenzekayo Xa Ihlabathi Elingafezeki?

Ukukhangela oko kwenzekayo xa ilizwe lingenakuhlawulwa kweeMithetho-mali

Ukungafezeki komthengi kuyinto eqhelekileyo. Ababolekisi baqala ukuthumela iileta baze bafonele umnxeba, kwaye ukuba akukho nto iyenzekayo, ii-asethi ngamanye amaxesha zingaphinde zifumaneke. Kodwa, kwenzekani xa ilizwe lonke lichithwa kwiimali zalo? Okumangalisa kukuba, amaninzi amazwe asuke alahleka ubuncinane kanye ngexesha lokuphila kwabo, nangona kungabi nolwazi oluqhelekileyo phakathi kwabemi bawo okanye abatyalo-mali.

Ukusuka eFransi ngo-1558 ukuya eArgentina ngo-2001, amawaka amakhulu aye ahlaziya okanye ahlaziya amatyala abo kuwo wonke umlando.

Ukuwa kwezi zinto ezingalunganga kuye kwahluka kwi-non-event (njenge-default default) kwi-down tone ebonakalayo kwezoqoqosho lwazo kunye nemiphumo emide yesikhathi eside eqhubekayo nanamhla.

Kule nqaku, siza kujonga ezinye izinto ezingafaniyo eziziwayo, okwenzeke kumazwe, nendlela abatyala-mali abanokuqikelela ngayo iingxaki kwangaphambili.

UkuLungiswa koMongameli oLaziwayo

UFilipu II waseSpeyin wenza ulawulo oluphambili lwangaphambi kokungagqibekanga ngo-1557 kwaye ilizwe lakhe lalingabikho amaxesha amathathu ngenxa yeendleko zemikhosi kunye nokuncipha kwexabiso legolide. Isizathu? Kuye kwenzeka ukuba ukumkani wayehlawula inzala engama-50% yonyaka kwimali-mboleko emitsha phambi kokungagqibekanga. Ukususela ngoko, ilizwe liye lahlelwa ngamaxesha angama-15 phakathi kuka-1557 no-1939 ngezizathu ezahlukahlukeneyo.

UMexico waxhomekeka kwinqanaba layo emva kweCrisis Crisis Peso ngo-1994. Ixabiso lokuhlaziywa kwe-15% kwi-peso enxulumene ne-dollar yase-US yabangela ukuba abatyali-mali basemzini bakwazi ukurhoxa ngokukhawuleza imali kunye nokuthengisa amasheya.

Ngelo xesha, urhulumente waphoqeleka ukuba athenge iidola zase-US nge pes pesideded pesos ukuze abuyisele iitalato zesizwe. Ekugqibeleni ilizwe lagqitywa kunye ne-$ 80 yezigidigidi zemali mboleko kumazwe amaninzi.

Umzekelo osandul 'umva nje yi-Argentina, eyayihlawula ityala layo ngasekupheleni kuka-2001 kwi $ 132 billion. Inani elimelwe enye-yesixhenxe kuyo yonke imali ebolekwe ngehlabathi lesithathu ngelo xesha.

Emva kwexesha lokungaqiniseki, ilizwe likhethe ukukhawuleza imali yalo kwaye ekugqibeleni liyakwazi ukuhlaziya ngokukhula kwe- GDP malunga no-90% kunyaka wesithoba ukususela oko.

Yintoni eyenzekayo emva kokungagqibekanga?

Izwe ayifanelekanga ibonakala ihluke kakhulu kunamashishini okanye ngabanye. Esikhundleni sokuphuma kwishishini, amazwe ajongene nenani lokukhetha. Amaxesha aphindaphindiweyo, amazwe avuselela amatyala abo ngokukwandisa umhla ohlawulwa ngawo okanye ukuhlaziya imali yabo ukuze kufikeleleke ngakumbi.

Emva koko, amazwe amaninzi aphantsi kwexesha elibuhlungu lobunzima elilandelwa lixesha lokuhlaziywa kwakhona (nakwezinye izihlandlo ngokukhawuleza). Ngokomzekelo, ukuba ilizwe lixabisa imali yalo ukuba lihlawule ityala layo, ukulinganiswa kwemali engezansi kwenza imikhiqizo yabo ibe yintengo yokuthumela ngaphandle kwaye inceda imboni yayo yokukhiqiza, ekugqibeleni inceda ekuphuhliseni uqoqosho lwayo kwaye yenza lula ukuhlawulwa kwetyala.

I-Iceland yayimpawu eziphawulekayo ngo-2008 xa ivumela iibhanki zayo ezinkulu ziwa phantsi ngaphandle kokuzikhupha ngaphandle kwamanye amazwe. Abemi abangaphezu kwama-50,000 balahlekelwa ukugcinwa kobomi kunye noqoqosho lwamazwe ngamazwe, kodwa ilizwe likhawuleza libuyiswe kwaye i-GDP yayo yabuyiselwa kwizinga lokukhula kwe-3% ngo-2012. Abaninzi bezoqoqosho bezithembele kwilizwe njengemodeli yekamva.

Ababolekisi kwakhona ekugqibeleni baboleka kwakhona kwabaninzi kumazwe angenalo-creditworthy ngenxa yokuba ngokuqhelekileyo abalahlekelwa yinto yonke - njengokwenza ishishini okanye ukuchithwa kwabantu . Kunoko, amazwe athambekele ekuhlaleni amatyala (nangona kunjalo) kwaye uya kuhlala enempahla yokubuyisela phantsi kwendlela. Emva koko, ilizwe alikwazi ukuvala iminyango yalo ngonaphakade.

Ukuqikelela ukulungiswa koMongameli

Ukuchazwa kokungaguquki komlawuli kubonakala kunzima, nangona izinto zibonakala ziphazamiseka kwilizwe. Ngokomzekelo, abahlalutyi baye balumkisa malunga netyala lekarhulumente leJapan iminyaka engama-15, kodwa kusekho ngaphezu kwe-200% ye-GDP enomyinge onomtsalane ongaphantsi kunokuba waqala ukuhlaselwa ngo-1998. Ngokuthelekiswa, amazwe amaninzi asele kwenziwe njalo kwi-60% ye-GDP!

Oorhulumente bathambekele kwizinto ezahlukeneyo ngezizathu ezahlukeneyo, ukususela ekutshintsheni okulula kwe-capital capital flows to revenue revenues.

Kodwa ezininzi izinto ezingapheliyo zinyanzeliswa ngengozi yebhanki. Ucwaningo luye lwabonisa ukuba ityala likarhulumente likhula malunga neyesibini kwisithathu kwiminyaka emva kwenkathazo, ngelixa inkathazo kwilizwe elizityebi lingakwazi ukutshintsha ngokukhawuleza ukuphuma kwemali kumazwe omhlaba.

Abatyalomali bamazwe ngamazwe kufuneka bahlale bekhumbule ezi ngongoma xa behlalutya ukutshala imali kwihlabathi jikelele.

Amaphuzu athathweyo

• Amazwe amaninzi alahlekanga ubuncinane kanye ngexesha lokuphila kwabo, ngamanye amazwe asele angaphezu kwama-10 kwii-1500s.
• Esikhundleni sokuphuma kwishishini, amazwe ajongene nenketho yeenqununu kwaye ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukulungiswa kwakhona kwetyala labo kunokuba bangayihlawulanga nhlobo.
• Oorhulumente bathambekele kwizinto ezahlukeneyo ngezizathu ezahlukeneyo, ukususela ekutshintsheni okulula kwe-capital capital flows to revenue revenues.