Ngaphambi kokusungulwa kwawo ngo-2004 nge-ETF yegolide (iMpawu zeGLD), utyalo-mali lwempahla kunye nokuthatha inxaxheba kwimarike kwafumaneka kuphela kubachaphazelekayo bemarike ngeemvelo, ikusasa kwiimakethe zokukhetha ezizayo. I-ETF kunye nee-ETN zenze utyalo-mali lwemveliso kunye nokuthengiswa okunokwenzeka nge-akhawunti yemveli yemali yokuthengisa.
Ukubukela emva
Ukujongwa kwamanani amaninzi kwimveliso enkulu ekupheleni kuka-1999 kubonisa ukuxabisa okukhulu okwenzeka kweli candelo. Ixabiso legolide laliyi-$ 283 ngeeyunce ngosuku lokuqala lokuthengisa ngo-2000; kwaphakama ukuya kuma-1920.70 ngo-2011. Intengo yesilivere yayingama-$ 5.355 kwaye ivuke ibe ngama-dollar angama-50 ngeeyonke ngo-2011. I- Copper yavula i-millennium entsha kwi-85.45 yeeyiti nganye kwipounds kwaye yathengiswa ngaphezu kwama-4.60 ngo-2011. I-147 i-barrel ngo-2008. Umngxuma waqhuma ukusuka kwi-$ 2.045 ukuya kuma-dollar 8.50 ngebhasi ngonyaka ka-2012, kwaye kukho eminye imizekelo emininzi yokuxabisa kwiimarike ezibonakalayo eziye zaqala ukususela ngo-2000.
I-China kunye nedola liphela inkunzi yenkomo
Ngo-2011 nangowama-2012, amaninzi amanani entengo afikelele phezulu kwaye kwiminyaka elandelwayo, ayilungisa phantsi. Ambalwa amaxabiso okuhlamba abuyele kumanqanaba abo okuvula ama-2000. Ezinye izinto ezibalulekileyo zaphelisa imarike yenkomo kwiimarike ezibonakalayo. Mhlawumbi isizathu esibaluleke kakhulu kuye kwaba ukuhlaselwa kwezoqoqosho eChina.
I-China, isizwe esinabantu abangaphezulu kwe-1.3 billion, i-akhawunti engaphezu kwe-17.5% yabemi behlabathi. Inqanaba lokukhula kwamadijithi e-China laba nzima ukugcina njengoko ubungakanani be-GNP yabo bekhula ukwanda kwezoqoqosho ngobukhulu kwihlabathi. Njengoko i-China yayikhula, imfuneko yokuveliswa kwezinto eziyimveliso yanda. Olu hlanga lugqiba iminyaka yokwakha iziseko zenze ukuba kuyimfuneko ukuthenga nokugcina izinto ezininzi. I-China yaba yinto efunekayo yecandelo elilinganayo kwihlabathi lezinto eziphathekayo kwiminyaka edlulileyo. Iintlanga ezithembela kwimveliso yazo yeempahla ezinje njenge-Australia, eCanada, eBrazil , eRashiya nakwabanye babonayo imali engenayo, kwaye imali yabo iyayixabisa ngenxa yemarike yenkomo kwixabiso lentengo. Ukuncipha kwezoqoqosho eChina kubangela ukuba ixabiso lemveliso liyeke. Iimali zeentlanga zokuvelisa iimpahla zithuthelele ngaphantsi kwexabiso lezinto ezibonakalayo ngexesha lokuthengiswa kweebhere.
Ngexesha elifanayo, iimveliso zafumana isiqhwithi esipheleleyo se-bearish. Idola yase-US, i-currency reserve currency, yindlela yokwenza intengo yeemarike ezibonakalayo. Kukho ulwalamano oluphambene nomlando phakathi kwedoli kunye namanani entengo . I-rally ephakamileyo kwidola eqala ngoMeyi 2014 yabangela idoli yase-US ukuba ixabise ngaphezu kwe-27% ngo-Matshi 2015.
I-dollar eqinile yenze ukuba ixabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lithengise ngakumbi, longeza kwixabiso lentengo njengoko iimveliso zithutha ngaphantsi kweedola zeedola kodwa kungenjalo nakwezinye iimali zelizwe jikelele. Okwangoku, ubuthathaka kwezoqoqosho abuzange bubekwe kwiChina kuphela. Iintlanga ezininzi zaseAsia zafumana uxinzelelo lwezoqoqosho oluvela kwi-Asia ngobukhulu kwezoqoqosho. Njengoko iChina ibanjwe kubanda; lonke elaseAsia lafumana umkhuhlane. Uqoqosho lwaseYurophu luye lwaxhatshazwa phantsi kobunzima bokungabikho kwemisebenzi kunye neemeko zoqoqosho ezibuthathaka kwiintlanga zaseYurophu zaseYurophu ezazifuna ukuhlawulelwa kwemali ezahlula lonke uqoqosho lwaseYurophu. Olunye uhlaselo lwezoqoqosho lwaseYurophu lwaluyingxaki yababaleki abavela eMiddle East nakwiMntla Afrika eyabangela ukunyuka okukhulu kwabantu abaye basasazeka kweli zwekazi. Inkathazo yabasebenzi yabangela ukuba kubekho ukunyusa nokunyanzeliswa koqoqosho kwiYurophu.
Ngo-2015 kunye no-2016 ukwanda kweemeko zobugandxela eYurophu kwongezelela nokubuthathaka koqoqosho.
Iminyaka emininzi yeminyaka
Ukususela ngo-2011 nakwiminyaka yokuqala ye-2016, amaninzi amanani entengo awela kumanqanaba angabonakali kwiminyaka. IGolide yawela ukusuka kuma-1900 ukuya kwii-1900 ukuya kwi-$ 1050 ngaphantsi kwe-2015. Ioli engcolileyo, eyayisethengisa ngaphezu kwe-$ 100 ngomgqomo ngoJuni 2014, yawela kuma-26.05 aphantsi kwinqanaba lika-Februwari 2016. Ikoporo yawela ngaphantsi kwe-$ 1.95 nganye Ngomhla kaJanuwari ka-2016, ngaphantsi kwesigamu semali esithengiswa ngo-2011. Amanani eemveliso zezolimo awela njengamatye ngenxa yeli dola elinamandla kunye nezolimo ezinobunzima emhlabeni wonke phakathi neminyaka phakathi kuka-2012 no-2015 njengeemeko ezikhulayo ezikhuselekileyo iimarike kwixabiso lemveliso.
Iimeko zezoqoqosho ezinqongileyo emhlabeni jikelele zibangela imbangela yexabiso lentengo. Iibhanki eziMbindi, emva koxinzelelo lwezezimali ngonyaka we-2008, zanciphisa amazinga ezenzalo kwaye zazisa imigaqo-nkqubo yokukhuthaza ukuchitha imali kunye nokuboleka nokuvimba ukulondoloza. Le "ntuthuko" yabangela umlenze wokugqibela kwixabiso lentengo ngo-2008 nango-2011 njengenqanaba elincinci lenzalo ezikhuselekileyo zithandwa ngokufanelekileyo kwiimpawu ezibonakalayo. Ixabiso lentlawulo elingaphantsi kweli hlabathi lithetha ukuba ixabiso eliphantsi ukuxhasa imali okanye ukuphatha izinto zokuthengisa. Ixabiso lentengo elincinci lenze ukuba lithengise ukuba kuthwale impahla yokugcina impahla ngokunika inkxaso ngenkxaso. Nangona kunjalo, amandla edoli kunye nokuqhubeka kweemeko zezoqoqosho ngokungahambisani nemilinganiselo ephantsi ukusuka ngonyaka ka-2013 ukuya ekuqaleni kuka-2016.
Unyaka omtsha - iMakethe yeMpahla eyahlukeneyo
Ngasekupheleni kuka-2015 nakwiminyaka yokuqala ye-2016, isantya semali esezantsi ehlala kwindawo yonke emhlabeni. EYurophu naseJapane, inani lentengo liye langena kwintsimi embi - ibiza imali ukugcina imali ebhankini. Ngelo xesha, i-rally kwi-dollar yase-United States yaqala ukunyuka kwiinyanga zokuqala zika-2016. Njengoko idola liye lafudula ngaphantsi, isaphulelo semali yamanani amaninzi senzeke. Ixabiso legolide lihambele phezulu esangweni ngo-2016; ngekota yokuqala yonyaka, yaxabiswa ngaphezu kwe-16%, kwaye yongezwa kulawo maxabiso ngo-Ephreli no-Meyi. Ioli ehlambulukileyo yaxhaswa ukusuka kumhla we-11 kuFebhuwari ukuya kuma-dollar angama-47 ngomgqomo ekupheleni kuka-Apreli 2016-ukwanda kwama-80% kwiiveki ezilishumi. I-Copper kunye nezinye iziseko zetsimbi zanyuka phezulu. Ngasekupheleni kuka-Epreli, kwanokuba amaxabiso okusanhlamvu aqala ukunyuka phezulu ekudibaneni kokungaqiniseki ngemozulu yonyaka wesityalo esitsha kunye nemali ebuthakathaka e-US. Kwesinye isibonakaliso sokwenza umdla kunye nokwenza izinto kwiimarike zemveliso, i-Baltic Index Index yaxabisa ukusuka kwixesha lonke le-290 ngoFebruwari 11, 2016, ngaphezu kwama-700 kwaye yayingama-631 ngo-Meyi 6, 2016-ukwanda kwama-117% . Ukuthunyelwa kwezixhobo ezinobunzima emhlabeni wonke kuye kwanda njengoko imfuno kunye nemirhumo yeenqanawa ezithutha izinto ezibonakalayo zihambile kakhulu kwiinyanga ezimbini.
Iimveliso zinezinto eziphathekayo ezinokuzithengisa kunye nezinto eziphathekayo. Imveliso nganye ine-specific supply and requirements. Izinto zezolimo zixhomekeke kakhulu kwiimeko zemozulu . Ukukhula koqoqosho kulo lonke ihlabathi kuthonya ixabiso lentsimbi. Izityebi ezibalulekileyo ziyi-barometers yokwesaba nokungaqiniseki kwiimarike. Ukukhula kunye neendalo ze-geopolitical zithonya amaxabiso emandla. Nangona kunjalo, bonke banezinto ezifanayo. Ngexesha leemarike zeenkomo, iimpahla zithengisa kwiintengo apho abavelisi banyukisayo umkhiqizo, iimpahla zikhula kwaye zifuna iirejista. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kwiimarike zeebhere zivame ukuwa kumaxabiso apho ukuveliswa kwemveliso kuphuculwa, iincwadi ziyancipha kwaye zifuna ukwanda. Le mithetho yinto yokulula komjikelezo omkhulu wezoqoqosho lwezoqoqosho. Esiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka we-2016, sibona iimpawu zokujika kwiimarike zempahla emva kweminyaka emihlanu kwimibandela yemarike yeebhere.
Into enye yokukhumbula ngempahla kukuba ukufunwa kwezinto ezibonakalayo kukhula rhoqo. Kungenxa yokuba imfuno ekugqibeleni ngumsebenzi wenani labantu emhlabeni. Ngo-1959, kwakukho abantu abangaphantsi kwezigidi ezi-3 kwihlabathi. Ngo-2016, elo nani lumi ngaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-7.3. Iimveliso zizibonelelo ezigqibeleleyo; Imveliso iyakwandisa kuphela ngamanani aphezulu. Kungenxa yokuba ukukwazi ukukhupha izinto ezibonakalayo kwiindawo ezinqabileyo zomhlaba okanye ukuzikhulela kumhlaba ocebile kuxhomekeke kwixabiso . Kwamaxabiso aphezulu, ukuveliswa kweendleko eziphezulu kunokwenzeka kodwa ngexabiso elincinane le mveliso iba yinto engacinanga. Yiloo nto eyabangela ukuba ixabiso leoli ephosakeleyo iwele kuma-dollar angaphezu kwe-100 ngomgqomo ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-$ 30-ihlabathi liye lahlala lithe xaxa kwixabiso leoli kunye nexabiso alizange liqinisekise intengo.
Amanani okuthengiswa kwempahla abuyele emva kokuphakama ngo-2011-2012. Ngo-2016, kukho iimpawu zokuba i-retreat ingapheli njengabantu, imozulu, iimali kunye nezinye iingcinezelo zezoqoqosho ziqokelela ukuzinzisa amaxabiso. Nangona amaxabiso ahlala ephantsi kwiinqanaba okanye kwiminyaka, ukuba iimpahla ziqala ukuhla, sinokubakho kwintengiso entsha yenkomo kwiimarike ezibonakalayo.
I-New Bull Emerges- Ixabiso lentengo ezayo
Amanani omdla ahlala ephantsi okanye angenayo ingqonge emhlabeni jikelele owona mhle kwi candelo lemveliso. Ngomdla woqoqosho olukhuthazayo kwihlabathi, iibhanki eziphambili ziye zafaka amazinga enzala kumanqanaba aphantsi aphantsi. Ingozi yamanani aphantsi kukuhla kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Iirhafu zenzalo ephantsi zilingana nemali yokushicilela. Xa imali ingabizi, kwinqanaba lentlawulo elincinci, lisoloko lithatha imali ethe xaxa ukuthenga ii-asethi ezinzima okanye izinto ezincinci.
Ukutshatyalaliswa, okanye ukuhluka kwexabiso, kwizinto eziphathekayo, kufana nokuba phezulu kunezinye iimarike zeempahla. Ngoko ke, i-pickup ekwenzeni umsebenzi kwicandelo lezinto eziphathekayo yimiqondiso yokuba ukukhula koqoqosho kuya kwanda, kwaye ukuba iimveliso ziqala ukubonakalisa izinga lokumgangatho wentlalo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kungakhokelela ngokukhawuleza. Iibhanki eziphambili kunye nabaphathi beemali bangasifumana kwindawo apho kufuneka bakhulise amazinga omdla ukulwa neengcinezelo zokunyuka kwemali, okuya kuba yimpembelelo embi kwixabiso lezinto ezibonakalayo. Iingeniso zidibanisa ukunyuka kwexabiso elongezelelweyo kwixesha elizayo.
Ekuqaleni kukaMeyi 2016, sibona ezinye iimpawu zokuba iimveliso zenza ukubuyela emva kwexesha elide lexabiso lokuthengisa intengiso. Kungaba yinkohlakalo-kodwa ukunikezwa kokungahambisani kwezi marike; kunokwenzeka ukuba kusetyenziswe amanyathelo amaninzi kwihlabathi lemveliso. Gcina iibhanti zakho zokuhlala ziboshwe; iimarike zeemveliso zihlala zihamba ngokuhamba.