Kukho ulwalamano oluphambene nomlando phakathi kwamanani entengo kunye namanani entengo. Isizathu sokuba amaxabiso omyinge kunye namaxabiso angcolileyo ahambelana ngokuthe ngcembe yindleko yokugcina i-inventory. Xa inani lamanani lihambela phezulu, amaxabiso eemveliso ahlala esezantsi. Xa inani lamanani lihamba lincinci, iimpahla zivame ukuphakama kwixabiso.
Ngomgangatho ophantsi wezinga lentlalo, iindleko zokugcina iifowuni ziphantsi kunokuba ixabiso lentengo liphezulu.
Cinga nge shishini elenza imveliso efuna izinyithi, amaminerali okanye amandla. Kubiza kakhulu ukugcina iimfuno zexesha elide iimpahla ezifunekayo ekuveliseni xa iindleko zemali ziphantsi. Iindleko zokuthwala lixesha lokuba abathengi bemveliso (kunye nabavelisi) basebenzise ukuchaza iindleko ezihambelana nokugcinwa kwempahla kwithuba.
Ukususela ngoxinzelelo lwezezimali lwehlabathi ngo-2008, iibhanki eziphambili emhlabeni jikelele zinciphisa amazinga ezenzalo kumazinga angakaze afumaneke. Laba baphathi bezimali baqeshwe nesixhobo, ukuhlutha okuninzi (QE), okwabavumela ukuba bathengise umlawuli kwaye kwezinye iimeko izixhobo zamatyala okanye amabhondi.
Iibhanki eziMbindi zibeka umgaqo-mali wexesha elifutshane
Iibhanki eziMbindi aziyikulawula iirhafu zentshukumo yesikhathi eside, kodwa zibeka amanqanaba okuboleka kwexesha elifutshane. EUnited States, izinga lokuba iibhanki zamalungu e-US Federal Reserve zamabhanki amalungu e-short-term ezibizwa ngokuba yi-Fed Funds rate, isetyenziswe inyanga nganye yiKomiti ye-Open Open Committee.
Iimakethi zihlala zikulindele isigqibo sebhanki ephakathi malunga namazinga atshanje.
Iingqalelo ezininzi zinquma izinga leFund Funds. Ibhanki ephakathi kufuneka ihlole imeko yoqoqosho lwasekhaya kunye noqoqosho. Izinto ezincinci zezoqoqosho kunye nezoqoqosho zibandakanya ulawulo lwamazinga enzala. Ukukhula koqoqosho kukuxhalabisa kakhulu kwiibhanki eziphambili.
Ukuba uqoqosho lukhula ngokukhawuleza, igunya lolawulo liba lula ukuphakamisa amaxabiso okanye ukuqinisa ityala lokunciphisa ukukhula ngaphambi kokukhawuleza ngokukhawuleza. Umgaqo-nkqubo we-Hawkish okanye umgangatho ophezulu ophezulu wenzala uvela xa ibhanki ephambili isesigaba sokuqinisa. Xa uqoqosho luba buthathaka, ibhanki ephambili iya kukhulula ukukhangela i-credit ukuze ikhuthaze uqoqosho. Umgaqo-nkqubo okanye umgaqo-nkqubo wendawo uhlala xa ibhanki ephambili isesigaba sokukhupha. Umgaqo-nkqubo we-Hawkish okanye umkhombandlela uvame ukuqhubeka kumjikelezo onokuhlala iminyaka. Ezinye izinto ezinokuchaphazela umgaqo-mali webhanki eliphambili kubasebenzi okanye ukukhula komsebenzi okanye amanani okuphambuka, idatha yexabiso lentengo kunye neempembelelo ezivela kwamanye amazwe ezoqoqosho. Xa ibhanki ephakathi iqinisa, kuthetha ukuba ukukhula kwezinye iindawo kwenzeka ngokukhawuleza kwaye kufuneka iphucule. Xa ibhanki ephakathi ikhupha umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali ngokubhekiselele kuthetha ukuba uqoqosho luyingozi kwaye lufuna i-jumpstart.
Nangona umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali-futshane ungumphumo wezigqibo zomgaqo-siseko webhanki, iirhafu zentsholongwane zangexesha elide zijoliswe kuphela yimimandla yemarike kwizoqoqosho. Nangona kunjalo, utshintsho lwexesha elifutshane luba nefuthe kwiimpahla zamatyala ezide. Akukho ukulungelelaniswa kwe-100% phakathi kwezinga elifutshane kunye nexesha elide, kodwa ngokuphindaphindiweyo kunokuba ixabiso elifutshane elifutshane liza kuhamba, amaxabiso athatha ixesha elide liya kulandelwa kwaye xa amaxesha ambalwa atyhulayo, amaxabiso angamaxesha amade aya ukunyuka kunye.
Ukuphuhliswa kweeNkcazo zeNzala kusukela ngo-2008
Ukususela kwiingxaki zemali zango-2008, iibhanki eziphambili zehlabathi ziye zahlala kwindawo yokuhlala ixesha elide okanye umjikelezo oqhelekileyo. Kule nqanaba elibi, iibhanki eziphambili zizama ukukhuthaza ukukhula ngokukhuthaza ukuboleka nokuchitha kunye nokukhusela ukukhusela. Amaxesha amaninzi amazinga omdla aphantsi aya kwenza ubuqhetseba, kodwa ukutshatyalaliswa kwenkqubo ejikeleze ihlabathi ngo-2008 kwakunjalo ukuba inani elingazange lilungele ukukhutshwa liba yimfuneko kwixesha elide. Ekuqaleni, iipolisi zokuhlala zenze ukuba amaxabiso eemveliso ahambe phezulu, xa kunikwa ubudlelwane obuphambili obuphambili phakathi kwamaxabiso kunye nezinto ezibonakalayo.
Nangona kunjalo, xa kubonakala ukuba i-Fed yase-US iya kugqiba umgaqo-nkqubo wokunciphisa umlinganiselo kwaye iqale ukuqwalasela umyinge wamaxabiso xa ezinye iintlanga ziqhubeka ngendlela ekhohlakeleyo, amaxabiso ezininzi zeemveliso zanyuka ngaphantsi.
Imiba enzima yayiyi-intsebenziswano phakathi kwamaxabiso e-United States kunye nemali yase-United States, idola. Njengoko iimarike zazikholelwa ukuba umgaqo-mali wezemali ophantsi ungabangela isivuno esiphezulu seedola ngokuthelekiswa nezinye iirhafu kwihlabathi, idola yaqala ukuyiqonda ngokumalunga namanye amathuluzi okutshintshwa kwamanye amazwe. Ngomhla ka-Meyi 2014, idola yaqalisa ingqungquthela ebalulekileyo eyathatha isalathisi se-dollar ukusuka kwizinga eli-79 ukuya kuma-100 ngonyaka omnye. Nangona amaxabiso enzala ahlala emazingeni aphantsi kweemarike ayekholelwa ukuba aya kuphakama njengoko izitatimende zeFed zitshintshile ukusuka kwinqanaba le-hawkish ngokumalunga nomgaqo-nkqubo wezemali ngokubangela ukuba idola likhuphuke kwixabiso ngokuthelekiswa nezinye iirhafu. Idola iyimali yokugcinwa kwemali yehlabathi kunye neendlela zokulinganisela intengo yezinto ezininzi. Ngako oko, ukuxabisa kweedola kwenza ukuba amaxabiso eempahla ezininzi ahlasele kwizinga eliphantsi kuneminyaka.
NgoDisemba 2015, i-Fed yandise izinga leFed Funds ngokokuqala ngqa kwiminyaka elithoba. Nangona ukwanda kwakuncinane, ibhanki ephakathi yayithembisa iimarike 3-4 ngaphezulu kwamazinga okunyuka ngo-2016. Isimo se-hawkish senza ukuba amaxabiso ezinkcukacha ezimbiweyo aqhubeke ngenxa yempembelelo emibini yokunyuka kweendleko zokunyuka kwempahla kunye nedola ephezulu izibizo zamanani entengo.
Ngo-2016 i-Fed ayizange ilandele isithembiso sayo
Kukho uhlalutyo oluninzi kunye nokuqokelela kwedatha ukuba ibhanki ephakathi ihamba phambi kokuba itshintshe kwimigaqo-mali. Nangona ukutshintshwa kwimiqathango eya kwi-hawkish nkqubo kwenzeke e-US ngaphaya kwekhosi ka-2015, akukho ziqinisekiso zokukhawuleza kwezinga lomdla. Ibhanki ephambili ijonga imicimbi yezoqoqosho ukuze iphendule kwiimeko ezifanelekileyo zokutshintshwa komgaqo-nkqubo wenqanaba elifutshane. Ngenxa yokunyanzeliswa kweemarike zangaphandle kunye nokukhula kancinci kwezoqoqosho, iFed yanquma ukukhupha izinga lokunyuka kwamazinga amaninzi kulo lonke i-2016. Ukungaphumeleli kwezinga lokunyuka kweentengo kwaba ukuhamba kwiimpawu ezenziwe yibhanki enkulu kwiimarike ngasekupheleni kuka-2015 kwaye kwaphumela ekubeni idola elibuthathaka kunye nokuqhubeka kwamaxabiso asezantsi e-US. Ngenxa yokungabikho kwezenzo zebhanki eziphambili, idola lihanjiswe ngaphantsi, kwaye ixabiso lentengo lahlala kumazinga abonwa ngoDisemba 2015 okwenza ukuba amanani entengo ahlawule. Kanye njengoko iimpahla zawa xa iimarike zikholelwa ukuba iFed yayiza kuhlawulela amaxabiso kwaye idola yayiza kubanjelwa ngasekupheleni kuka-2015, bayayixabisa xa oku kungabikho.
I-Outlook yekamva: Yintoni eyenzekayo xa iiRhafu zihambela phezulu?
Ukuba imbali iyisikhokelo, inzala ephezulu e-United States, kunye neenxa zonke zehlabathi, iya kuba yinto engafanelekiyo kumanani entengo . Xa amaxabiso akwandisa iindleko zokuthwala, iincwadi ziza kwandisa, kwaye ezi ziza kubakhuthaza abathengi bezinto ezibonakalayo ukuba bathenge izinto kwixesha elifunekayo kunokuba babambe iimpahla ngenxa yeendleko eziphezulu zenkxaso-mali. Yilokho imbali esiye yasifundisa yona kunye nembali ijwayele ukuphinda ibuyele xa ifika kwimigangatho yezoqoqosho.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuba ibhanki ephakathi yase-United States ilinde ixesha elide ukuqinisa ngakumbi okanye ukwandisa amazinga omyinge, bafaka ingozi yokunyuka ngokukhawuleza kwindleko yokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kukhula, imali eninzi ichitha izinto ezincinci, kwaye amaxabiso ezemveliso aya kunyuka, ngamanye amaxesha ngokugqithiseleyo ngexesha elifutshane kakhulu. Xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kukhula kwinqanaba apho amaxabiso ashukunyuka ngokukhawuleza, ukuqhuma okanye i-hyperinflation ingenzeka. Kwimeko enjalo, ukubaluleka kwemali yamaphepha kungancipha kwimihla ngemihla okanye ngeyure. Yingakho umgaqo-nkqubo webhanki ophakathi kubaluleke kakhulu ukwenza umsebenzi wokulinganisela. Ukuhlawulwa kwebhanki yelizwe eliyinkunzi kukulawula umgaqo-mali wokuqinisekisa ukuba uqoqosho alupheli okanye linciphise ngokukhawuleza. Umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali uyisisombululo esibalulekileyo ekufezekiseni injongo ephambili ekuzinzile.
Amathuba kukuba xa amazinga omdla ekugqibeleni aqala ukunyuka ukusuka kumanqanaba aphantsi aphantsi, amanani entengo aza kuwa. Nangona kunjalo, akukho ziqinisekiso kuba iimpendulo zemarike ezibonakalayo ziya kuxhomekeka ekubeni ziyakhula ngenxa yokunyuka kwexabiso lokunyuka kwemali ngenxa yeminyaka emininzi yemigaqo-nkqubo yokuhlala e-US nakwihlabathi jikelele. Ukongezelela, iimarike zentengiso zihlabathi jikelele ukuba abantu emhlabeni wonke bangabasebenzisi bezinto ezibonakalayo. Nangona umgaqo-nkqubo webhanki ophakathi eYurophu naseJapan uye wabangela ukuba iintlanga zihlawule iirhafu zexeshana kwimihlaba embi, iimeko zezoqoqosho zihlala zibuthathaka. Amanani amabi ayenako ukunyusa isidingo semigqaliselo yomgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angomakhelwane. Ibhanki ephakathi yase-US kufuneka iqwalasele imigaqo-mali yeentlanga ezivakalisi ngenxa yezorhwebo ngamazwe kunye nezinye izinto. Ngokuqhelekileyo, iibhanki eziphambili zehlabathi zilungelelanisa umgaqo-nkqubo wokuphumeza iziphumo ezilungileyo kwi-jikelele jikelele loqoqosho olujongene nazo zonke iintlanga.
Ukususela ngo-2008 ukuya ku-2016 umgaqo-nkqubo wehlabathi uye wenyuka xa ufika kumgaqo-nkqubo wezemali. Ukhula luye lwahlala lukhuni, kwaye oko kuthetha ukuba amathuba okuqhubela phambili amazinga enzala aphantsi kobudala aya kuqhubeka. Nangona kunjalo, kuza kuza ixesha apho iibhanki eziphambili ziya kufuneka zenze ukwandisa amaxabiso. Ingaba kubangelwa isizathu sokunyuka kwamazinga okwenyuka kwenzalo kuya kunyuka ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ukuba ukhumbule ibali le- Goldilocks kunye neentsimbi ezintathu , i-porridge yayibanda kakhulu okanye ishushu kakhulu; kwakudingeka ukuba kulungile. Ukuba iimeko zezoqoqosho zishisa kakhulu, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuya kuthukuthela, kwaye ukunyuka kwamazinga amaninzi kuya kubakho ukuphazamisa ishishini kwaye kubangele ukuba imali okanye ukuthengwa kwemali kupheleke kwizinto eziqoqosho. Ukuba kubanda kakhulu, kwaye iibhanki eziphambili ziyaqhubeka nokunyuka kwiimarike ezinomkhuhlane ngemali esincinci ngexabiso lokunciphisa inani elincinci kunye namanqanaba aphantsi aphantsi, amathuba kukuba imali eninzi iya kukhukhula kwiinkqubo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso ziya kuba ngumphumo weengxowa-mali ezichithwayo.
Njengoko ubona, iibhanki eziphambili zehlabathi zinomsebenzi omkhulu kumagxa abo, kwaye kufuneka zisebenze ngokuchanekileyo kwaye zikhusele ngokukhuselekileyo iintlekele zezoqoqosho. Ukuba bayifumene kakuhle, amanani entengo aza kuhla okanye azinze xa amaxabiso aphakama kwikamva. Ngethuba siphila kumjikelezo wezoqoqosho okhohlakeleyo kwihlabathi jikelele, amathuba kukuba izinto ezibonakalayo ziya kuqhubeka zixabisa njengoko ziye zaqala ukususela ngo-2016. Yingakho iibhanki eziphambili ziqwalasela ngokukodwa intengo yexabiso kunye nezinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Babeka iithagethi zolu hlobo lokugqibela, i-Tar's current target is 2%, kwaye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuhleli ngaphantsi kwelo nqanaba ngo-Agasti 2016. Nangona kunjalo, oko kungatshintshwa ngokukhawuleza njengoko amanani entengo ingaba yizona zinto ezinokungabonakaliyo kwihlabathi.
Ukhetho lwase-US lwe-2016 kunye neRhafu yeMali
Ngoxa i-Fed yasala intsingiselo yeholide yeholide emfutshane ingapheli ngoNovemba 2016, amaxabiso aqala ukunyuka phezulu ngoJulayi njengoko i-market bond. Iireyithi zexesha elide zihamba ngenxa yamandla emakethi. Iziphumo zokhetho lwase-US kunye nethuba lokunyuka kwezoqoqosho ngenxa yokunciphisa irhafu, iprojekti enkulu yeziseko kunye nemigaqo embalwa ethembisiwe ngexesha lephulo liyakwandisa amathuba okuba i-Federal Reserve iyakwandisa ukuhamba kwezinga lokuhamba kwiinyanga ezizayo. Amanani aphakamileyo angalinganisa amaxabiso empahla ethile kwaye enze ukuba kubekho i- bearish ngenxa ye- dollar enamandla , kodwa ukunyuka kweemfuno zezinto ezibonakalayo ukufezekisa iiprojekthi zenkxaso-mali kunokuxhasa ezinye izinto ezisetyenziswayo kwiinyanga ezizayo.