Iimarike zeMbali zidibanisa
Kwabo badala ngokwaneleyo ukuba bawakhumbule, ngee-1970 iimarike zawa ngama-48% ngaphezu kweenyanga ezili-19 kwaye ngowe-1930 zawela i-86% ngaphezu kweenyanga ezingama-39.
I-market ye-bear yamanje yase-US yenzeke ngo-2007-2009 xa i-yemarike yesitokisi yahlahlela i-57% ngaphezu kweenyanga ezili-17. Olunye urhwebo lwebhere eliphawulekayo yiJapan "Yilahlekelwa Iminyaka Emibini" ukususela ngo-1998 ukubonisa apho ixabiso leemarike liye laphawulwa ngokuthi liye lahla u-80%.
Kubatyalomali abathengisa ngezantsi kwezi marike, ezi zihlandlo eziphantsi ziye zaba nefuthe elibi. Abatyalomali abagcina iipotifoliyo ezahlukahlukeneyo kwaye bahlala batyala imali ukuze bafumane ukuhlaziywa emva koko abazange balinyanzeliswe. Ukuhlala kugxininise kwixesha elide kuyinto ebalulekileyo yokwenza xa uphakathi kwemakethe yeebhere.
Unyaka Emva kweMarike ye-Bear i-Boom
Kwiminyaka engama-80 ukususela ngo-1934 ukuya ku-2014, njengoko kulinganiswa ngonyaka wekhalenda, isalathisi se-S & P 500 senzeke ilahleko zokubuyela e-20% kwiminyaka emine eyahlukileyo, okwakutshanje ku-37.0% ukuhla kwe-2008. Ngonyaka emva kokuwa kwee-30% zangaphambilini, i-index yafumana umyinge we-32%. Kufuneka uzimisele ukuhlala utyalo-mali kwiimarike ngeli xesha lokuhlawula ukuba uthathe inxaxheba ekuphumeni.
Nangona kukho iMakethi ye-Bear, ngakumbi Okulungileyo Kunokuba Okubi Kuye kwadlula
Nasi ukuhlukana phakathi kwexesha "up" kunye "nehla" ixesha le-S & P 500:
- Imihla: 53% "phezulu" kunye ne 47% "phantsi."
- Iinyanga: i- 58% phezulu, i-42% phantsi
- Iziqendu: 63% ukuya phezulu, i-37% phantsi
- Iminyaka: i- 72% phezulu, i-28% phantsi
- Ixesha lokuQala kweMinyaka emi-5: i- 76% phezulu, i-24% phantsi
- Ixesha le-10 lokuhamba kwexesha Ixesha: I- 88% phezulu, i-12% phantsi
Ukubuyisela kwi-Market Market
Iimakethe zeBull zilandela iimakethe zeebhere. Kukho ezili-14 iimveliso zeenkomo (ezichazwe njengenyuka ye-20% okanye ngaphezulu kwixabiso lesitoko) ukususela ngowe-1930. Nangona iimarike zeenkunzi zihlala zihlala ixesha elide leminyaka, inxalenye ebalulekileyo yeenzuzo sele ikhule ngexesha leenyanga zokuqala rally market.
Umzekelo emva kokuba i-S & P 500 iphantsi kwe-777 ngomhla we-10/09/02 emva kweemarike zebhere zonyaka we-2 ½, isalathisi sesitokhwe safumana + i-15.2% (ukubuyisela inani) kwiinyanga ezi-1 ezizayo. Abatyalomali abasabela kwimali kwiimarike zeebhere kufuneka bahlale bekhumbula ingqalelo iindleko zokulahleka kwamanyathelo okuqala okuthengwa kwemarike, okwangaphambili ekubonelele ngenani lepesenti yerhafu ngexesha elityalomali.
Omnye umzekelo, emva kokuhla kwe-40% ngo-2008, i-S & P 500 iqhubekile ukuhla kwayo ize ifike nge-683 ngoMatshi 9, 2009. Ukususela apho kwaqala ukunyuka okuphawulekayo, ukunyuka ngaphezu kwe-100% kulezi ziinyanga ezingama-48 ezilandelayo. Ngenkcazo, iimarike ezintsha zeenkomo aziwazanga ukuba i-market% isetyenziswe ngama-20%. Abatyalomali abakwazi ukuhamba ngokupheleleyo kwiimpahla ngexesha lokuthengiswa kwempahla yeebhere bangafuna ukuphinda baqwalasele isenzo esinjalo, njengoko ukuzama ixesha elifanelekileyo ukuqala kwemarike entsha yenkomo kube nzima.
Ukutyalomali Ngexesha leMarike ye-Bear
Ukuba unayo imali, ucinga ukuthenga amathuba kwi-market yebhere. Ukuthetha ngokwembali, ixabiso le- S & P 500 ukuya kwi-Ratio yokuFumana (P / E) ibonakaliswe ngokukhawuleza ngexesha lemarike yeebhere. Xa abatyali-mali bathemba kakhulu, umlinganiselo we-P / E ngokunyuka ukwandisa ukwenza ixabiso lesitokisi liphezulu. Abatyalomali abaqeqeshiweyo UKUTHANDA iimakethi zeebhanki kuba amaxabiso esitokethi aqwalaselwa "ekuthengisweni."
Njengomthetho wesithupha, misela umxube wakho wotyalo-mali ngokuxhomekeka kwengozi kunye nokulinganisela kwakhona ukuze uthenge ophantsi kwaye uthengise phezulu. Ungalokothi unqande umrhumo kwiakhawunti yomhlala phantsi ngexesha lokuthengisa. Ekuhambeni kwexesha, uya kuzuza ngokuthenga amasheya amatsha ngamaxabiso aphantsi kwaye uza kufumana intengo ephantsi yentengo yokuthenga.
Ukuba uhlala phantsi, kuphela isabelo semali ongeke uyidinge enye iminyaka emihlanu ukuya kweyishumi kufuneka ibe kwiimpahla.
Le nkqubo yokwabela imali ngokwexesha xa uya kuyidinga libizwa ngokuba lixesha lexesha . Ufuna isicwangciso somhlala-phantsi esikuvumela ukuba uphumule kwaye ungabandakanyeki malunga neentengiso zemihla ngemihla, nyanga zonke, okanye nakwiimarike zonyaka.
> (Iinkcazo zesitatisti ezivela kwi-BTN Research and Investment Fidelity Investments.)