Kutheni iDollar eqinile i-Bearish for Commodities

I- dollar yase-US iyimali yokugcina umhlaba. Kukho izizathu zokuba imali yase-US inendima. Idola iyimali yamanzi , mhlawumbi i-liquid engaphezulu kwihlabathi. Ngoko ke, kulula ukuthenga nokuthengisa idola. Iibhanki eziphambili emhlabeni jikelele zibambe iindidi zeedola ngenxa yesi sizathu. Impembelelo yeUnited States kwiminyaka emashumi edluleyo yenza ilizwe libe lelinye lezona zizinzile kwihlabathi, ukuzinza kubaluleke kakhulu xa kuvela kwimali.

Ukongezelela, i-US iye yaye yaqhubeka ibe enye yezonaqoqosho ezinkulu kwizentengiso kwihlabathi. Ngelixa i-US ithumela iimpahla ezithile ezifana nommbila kunye nesoya , ngumthengisi omkhulu wabanye. Ngaloo ndlela, indlela yokwenza intengo yezinto ezininzi kwihlabathi lonke liyimali yase-United States yaseMelika. Xa ixabiso le dollar likhuphuka, intengo yeemveliso ezilinganiswe kwezinye iirhafu ziphakama. Xa amaxabiso entengo eluhlaza aphakama, imfuno iyancipha. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngamaxesha e-dollar ubuthathaka intengo yezinto ezibonakalayo zidla ukuwela kwezinye iirhafu kunye namaxabiso aphantsi atya ukwandisa imfuno. Yingakho idoli inendima ebalulekileyo ekuthinteni ixabiso lemveliso.

Imarike yebhere yexesha elide kwidola elaqala ngo-2002 lalihambelana nemarike yeenkunzi zeenkomo kwixabiso lexabiso lexabiso elithengiswa ngexesha elifanayo. Ngo-2011, idola liqalise ixesha lokudibanisa lonyaka-mali ukuya kwenyuka kwixabiso ngezinye iirhafu ngo-Meyi ka-2014.

Njengoko ishadi lenyanga libonisa, kungekhona nje into yokuthengisa okanye ixabiso lezinto ezibonakalayo lihamba phezulu njengoko ixabiso le dollar linciphile, amanani aguqulwa xa ukuphuma kwedola kuye kwaphuma kwintlambo. Ukuthengiswa kweenkunzi zeenkomo kwizinto ezinokuthengwa kwezinto ezifikelele kwinqanaba lika-2011 - ukuthungiswa kwebhebhile kwixesha lonke eliphakamileyo ngaphezu kwe-$ 4.50 kwiphidi, igolide ithengiswa ngaphezu kwe-1900 yeeyunithi nganye, intlawulo yeswekile yaqhubekela kuma-36 engama-penti kunye neyezinye ixabiso lexabiso leemveliso fanayo.

Nangona kunjalo, ukuqala ngo-2011 loo maxabiso aqala inzala ende.

NgoMeyi 2014, amaxabiso ezininzi zezixhobo eziqhelekileyo sele sele ziwa phantsi ngaphantsi kwexesha elide elisekwe kwiminyaka edlulileyo. Nangona kunjalo, xa idola liqalise i-rally eyathatha idilesi ye dollar ukusuka kwi-78.93 ukuya phezulu ukuya kwii-100 kwiinyanga ezilishumi, icandelo lezinto eziphathekayo liye lancipha kakhulu. I-Copper yawela ngaphantsi kwe $ 2.50 ngeyure, ioli yawa evela kuma-dollar angama-107 ngomgqomo ngoJuni ka-2014 ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-$ 45 ngoJanuwari ka-2015 kunye noshukela lwaba ngaphantsi kweesenti ezili-12 ngo-Matshi 2015. Uninzi lwamaxabiso exabiso lawa kakhulu. Ehlabathini lezinto eziphathekayo, zombini izinto ezisisiseko nezobugcisa ziqhuba amaxabiso. Ngako oko, ngamnye umbandela obomvu unesixhobo sakhe seempawu ze-idiosyncratic. Ngokomzekelo, ukusweleka kwemakethe yeenkomo kunye nokunyuka kweemfuno zehlabathi kwenyusa ukuba amaxabiso ahlale ephakamileyo. Ngona kunjalo, inxalenye enkulu, nangona kunjalo, idola elinamandla linokubangela ukuba ixabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lithengiswe.

Njengomnye umzekelo othile wempembelelo yeli dola kwixabiso lemveliso, ngekota yokuqala ka-2015, isalathisi se-dollar sathutha u-8.84% phezulu kunokuba bekukuphi ukuphela kuka-2014. Ngethuba elifanayo, umyinge wezinto eziphambili ukurhweba kwiimarike zexesha elizayo kwawa ngama-8%.

Kucacile ukuba kukho ukulungiswa okungekho phakathi kwedola kunye neempahla . Kunokwenzeka ukuba olu xhumo luya kuhlala lube lude kangangokuba idola liyinkokhelo yentengo yezi ziko. Ngoko ke, i dollar eqinile ngokuqhelekileyo ibhayisekile kwixabiso lempahla.

Kungenzeka ukuba ngolunye usuku olunye uhlobo lwemali luza kutshintsha idoli njengendawo yokugcina ihlabathi. Xa oko kwenzeka, kusenokwenzeka ukuba iimveliso kwaye loo mali entsha yokugcina imali iya kuba nobudlelwane obufanayo phakathi kwexesha.

Idola kunye nezinto eziphathekayo ngo-2016 nakusasa kwe-2017

Emva komhlangano owawuthatha inqaku le dollar ngaphezu kwe-27% ngaphezulu ukusuka ngoMeyi 2014 ukuya ngoMatshi 2015, idola ingene kwiinyanga ezimashumi mabini zokuthengisa ngokuhlanganiswa ukususela ngaphantsi kwe-92-100.60 kwinyanga esebenzayo yekontrakthi yexesha elizayo. NgoNovemba ka-2016, idola yaqala elinye umlenze ophezulu xa laphuka ngaphezu kwezinga le-100.60.

Ixabiso lentengo liye lahambela kwi-lows ngasekupheleni kuka-2015 nakwiminyaka ye-2016 ngexesha lokudibanisa kwi-greenback.

Inkcazo yeli dola ithengiswa kwizinga eliphezulu lika-103.815 ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari 2017, izinga eliphakamileyo ukususela ngo-2002. Ukususela ekuqaleni kukaMatshi 2017, ukunyanzelwa kobugcisa kwi-index ku-109.75. Idoli idibanisa njengamathuba okuba ama-intanethi ephakamileyo ase-US kunye nexesha elide liye landisa ukuveliswa kwemali phakathi kwemali yase-US kunye nezinye izinto ezinkulu zokutshintshiselana kwamanye amazwe. Njengoko ubuhlobo bembali obude bexesha elide phakathi kwedoli kunye namanani entengo, kuya kwenzeka ukuba ukubuyiswa kwimiba enokubaluleka kwezinto ezinokubaluleka kungabangela ingxaki xa idola liqhubeka lixabisa kulo lonke u-2017. Ngaphezu koko, inani le-interest rate ephezulu liba yi-bearish umba xa kuziwa kumaxabiso okuthengiswa kwempahla njengoko kwenza iindleko zokuthwala iimpahla ezibonakalayo ziphezulu.

Nangona imveliso nganye ineempawu zonikezelo kunye neemfuno eziza kuthi zigqitywe umgaqo wokuncincika kwamanani kunye nokunyuka kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kudla ukuxhasa imveliso, amaxabiso aphezulu kunye ne-dollar eqinile kunokunciphisa nayiphi na ixabiso elizayo kwizinto eziphathekayo. Xa uhlalutyo lwamaxabiso exabiso lugcina likhumbule ukubukela isikhundla sobugcisa kunye nesiseko se dollar njengoko kunokubonelela ngokubaluleka okubalulekileyo kwinqanaba lexabiso lemveliso yecandelo jikelele.