Kutheni I-Oil Oil?
Ioli engcolileyo yenye yezona zinto zixabisekileyo xa kuziwa kwiimali zombini kunye ne-geopolitics.
Kungenxa yokuba ukuveliswa kunye neninzi yezibonelelo zamandla kagesi zenzeka kwenye yezona ndawo zixhaphakileyo zehlabathi, eMbindi Mpuma. Ukusetyenziswa kubanzi, abantu kunye namashishini kuwo wonke umhlaba kuxhomekeke kwimveliso yeoli kunye neoli ukwenzela amandla okwenza umhlaba uphume kwaye uhambe.
Njengokuba mhlawumbi impahla yezopolitiko kunye neyokuyo yonke indawo, intlawulo yesenzo kwioli ephosakeleyo ichaphazela ezinye iimarike. Inye yeklasi ye-asethi ngokubanzi isabela kwiinguqu kwixabiso leoli lilingana. Iinkampani ezininzi zithengisa ioli kunye nexabiso eliphantsi livumela ezi fisi ukuba zinciphise amaxabiso ngaloo ndlela zenze ukuncintisana. Iindleko zamandla ezincinci zinciphisa iindleko zeempahla zithengiswa ngaloo ndlela. Kubathengi ngabanye, ixabiso elisezantsi leoli yinto elungileyo-ithetha ukufumana imali engaphezulu. Nangona kunjalo, abo babandakanyekayo kwimveliso yeoli, ukuhlola okanye iinkonzo kwi-petroleum shishini ixabiso elincinci lithethi.
Ngaphezu koko, umphumo wexabiso eliphantsi kweoli kumthengi alibalulekanga kunabalimi . Kubathengi, ixabiso elisezantsi leoli lichaphazela inxalenye yoshishino labo jikelele. Kubavelisi , ixabiso elisezantsi leoli lichaphazela ngokupheleleyo ibhiziniselwano labo.
Kwiimarike zokulingana zaseMelika, kukho ezininzi iinkampani ezidweliswe kuzo zonke iinkalo zemakethe ye-petroleum.
Ezi nkampani eziphambili zikarhulumente zibalulekileyo zeenkcazo ukuba abatyali-mali nabathengisi babukele imihla ngemihla. Ngako oko, ioli ephantsi ithambekele ekubeni nefuthe elibi kumanqaku okulingana kunye namaxabiso emasheya ngokubanzi. Nangona kunjalo, ngo-2015 nakwiminyaka yokuqala ye- 2016 kwavela ukungafani phakathi kwexabiso lexabiso elityunjiweyo leoli kunye neoli. Ixabiso lentengiso yeoli ehlaziyiweyo engaphezulu kweedola ezili-107 ngomgqomo ngoJuni 2014. Ngelo xesha ixabiso le-Energy Select SPDR (XLE), i- ETF yamasheya e-oyile e-US, yayingaphezu kwama-dollar ayi-100 ngesabelo ngasinye. Ngethuba likaJanuwari 2016, intlawulo ye-NYMEX inyanga esebenzayo i-oil engcolileyo iqhutywe kwinqanaba eliphantsi ukususela ngoMeyi 2003 xa kuthengiswa ngemali engama-26.19 ngomgqomo ngoJanuwari 20. I-XLE ihambele ngaphantsi ngeoli engcolileyo, ngomhla othe wafika nge-ETF i $ 49.93 ngesabelo ngasinye. Nangona kunjalo, ngoMeyi 2003 ukuba i-ETF efanayo yayithengisa kumanqanaba angaphantsi kwe-$ 22 isabelo ngasinye. Ngako oko, ukusebenza kwe-XLE kwalahla ukusebenza kweoli engcolileyo.
Esinye sezizathu ze-lag kungenzeka ukuba xa i-oyile yenza i-new year-year engama-$ 42 ngo-Matshi 2015, ngokukhawuleza yabuyela kuma-60 engama-barrel. Ngasekupheleni kukaAgasti ka-2015, xa ioli engcolileyo yenzile enye enye entsha kwi-$ 37.75 ngokukhawuleza yahlanganisela ngaphezu kwama-$ 50.
Imarike yokulingana ngasekupheleni kukaJanuwari yayingalindela ukubuyiswa kwakhona kwindleko yempahla yamandla ekuqaleni kuka-2016. Oku kwenzeke njengokuba intengo yeoli ephosakeleyo engasetyenziswanga yafudukela kuma-34.82 engama-28.82 ngo-Januwari 28. 30% kwiintsuku ezisibhozo nje. Ngethuba elifanayo, i-XLE yajikeleza i-$ 7 okanye i-14% ephezulu ngeli xesha.
Umgca weyona nto ibalulekileyo kukuba ixabiso lexabiso leoli lingabonakali ngokufanelekileyo ngenyathelo kwioli engcolileyo njengoko i-XLE ihlala kumanqanaba afanelekileyo kubonwe ngo-2008 ngelixa ioli engcolileyo ihamba kakhulu. Oku kusitshela ukuba ukuba ixabiso leoli liwe kakhulu okanye ixabiso lexabiso leoli lingakabikho kwixabiso lempahla.
Ukuchithwa okufana nalokhu kudala kudala ithuba. Abahwebi bezentengiso bahlalutya rhoqo iimarike befuna ukungafani. Xa amaxabiso e-asethi ahlukana, ithuba lokuthengiswa kweentengiso livela.
Oku kuthetha ukuba enye imarike ebeka omnye umntu ekugqibeleni izakufumana ukufumana iingeniso kubathengayo kunye nokuthengisa enye. Kule meko, ukuthengiswa kwe-ETF ye-XLE kunye nokuthengwa kwangexesha elilodwa kwexesha elizayo elingamafutha eliza kubangela ukurhweba okanye utyalo-mali oza kubangela iziphumo ezintle ukuba i-ETF ifake ixabiso leoli. Olunye uhlalutyo lwalolu hlobo luya kuba ukuba amanani okulingana, ngokubanzi, angawa njengoko intengo yeoli engcolileyo ihambile ngokugqithiseleyo kwiinyanga ezidlulileyo. Inyaniso yokuba amaxabiso anxulumene neoli anobuninzi aphezulu kwiindleko ze-equity zingenza isiprofeto esizifezekisa.