Kukho utshintsho olwenziwe ngo-2016 kwixabiso lemarike engekho nto leyo eya kuchaphazela intengo yayo. Utshintsho nakweyiphi na imarike yenza amathuba otyalo-mali kunye nabarhwebi kunye neoli engcolileyo akukho nto.
Injongo ka-OPEC kukuba " ukulungelelanisa nokudibanisa iinkqubo zepetroleum zeLizwe lamaLungu kunye nokuqinisekisa ukuzinzisa kweemarike zeoli ukwenzela ukufumana ukubonelela ngokufanelekileyo, kwezoqoqosho kunye nokuhlala rhoqo kwepetroleum kubathengi, umvuzo ongenamathelisi kubavelisi kunye nokubuyiswa okulungileyo kwixabiso abo batyala imali kwi-petroleum shishini . "Xa bebhekene namaxabiso eoli ewa, i-OPEC yayibonisa ukuveliswa kweoli ye-shale esuka eNyakatho Melika njengesizathu senani eliphantsi. I-cartel, ekhokelwa ngumlimi omkhulu kwi-Saudi Arabia, yanquma ukulandela isicwangciso sokukhukhula kweemarike kunye neoli ukwenzela ukuba ixabiso liye linciphise iindleko zokuvelisa ngaphantsi kwe-US, okubangela ukuba isiqhamo sitshise. Injongo ye-OPEC yayikukwakha isabelo semarike ngokususa umvelisi okhuphisanayo kwimarike.
Nangona inani leenkonkxa eziqhutyelwayo e-US zawela ngokukhawuleza, ukuhamba kweoli akuzange kwehla kwizinga eliqhelekileyo. Okwangoku, amalungu e-cartel aqhubeka nokuthengisa ioli. Intengo ephantsi yabangela amalungu amaninzi e-OPEC ukuba athengise ioli ngaphezulu ukwenzela ukunyuka kwemali yenkcitho kunye nenani leemvalo zeoli ezithengiswa kwiimarike imihla ngemihla zaqhubeka zikhula.
Nangona ixabiso lifunyenwe ukususela ngo-Febhuwari 2016, i-oli yahlala ingaphantsi kwesiqingatha semali eyayiyi-Juni 2014. I-OPEC yafika ekuqinisekiseni ukuba isicwangciso sokwakha isabelo semarike kunye nokwandisa ixabiso leoli ngokunyanzelela ukuveliswa kwempahla kwiimarike ayisebenzisekanga. IRussia nayo yindawo evelisa ioli. Ukususela ekuqaleni kuka-2016, amaRashiya athetha iintetho namalungu e-OPEC. Enye yeengxaki ngaphakathi kweelayelel yayiyintsebenziswano phakathi kwamalungu amabini anamandla, i- Saudi Arabia ne-Iran . I-Russia, ngenomdla wokwandisa intlawulo yeoli, isebenze njengomlamli phakathi kweentlanga ezimbini ukulungisa imeko. Intlanganiso eDhaha, iKatar ngenyanga kaMashi yabeka isigaba sokusebenzisana phakathi kwamalungu e-OPEC kunye namaRashiya. Intlanganiso yesibini eAlgeria ngasekupheleni kwehlobo yenze ishintsho kwindlela yokucwangcisa i-cartel.
Ukusuka kwiSicwangciso esiDlulileyo
E-Algeria, amalungu e-OPEC kunye kunye namaRashiya avumile kwisakhelo sommiselo oya kusilahlela umgaqo-nkqubo wokukhukula iimarike ngeoli engcolileyo. Isabelo semveliso esabandakanya ama-caps kunye nokuqhawulwa kwamalungu athile kunye nokucutshulwa ngabanye kuya kuxoxwa kwaye kuvunywe kwiintlanganiso ze-OPEC ezimbini ze-OPEC eVienna, e-Austria.
Ukukhokela kwintlanganiso esemthethweni ye-OPEC, iingxoxo ziyaqhubeka. Ukulindela kweemarike kwintsebenziswano kwahlala phantsi, ukuxabana phakathi kwe-Saudis kunye nezinye iintlanga ezazisenza ukuba zikhutshwe kuyo nayiphi na ingcaphuno yomveliso zenze ukuba zininzi izinto ezinokubangela ukuba i-deal iya kubangela. Nangona kunjalo, ngeyure leshumi elinanye, amalungu athe afikelelana. Le ntetho yayithetha ukuba isicwangciso sokuthengisa ioli ngaphandle kokushiya saphela.
Uguquko lwezopolitiko eMelika
Kwiiveki ezimbalwa ngaphambi, ngoNovemba 8, imimoya yeenguqu yezopolitiko yatshitshiswa emhlabeni wonke njengoko i-US yamkhethe uDonald Trump nguMongameli we-45 we-United States. Ngethuba lepikiswano lokubambisana kwi-ofisi ephezulu kwizoqoqosho jikelele, abaviwa baphikisana nemiba emininzi. Esinye sezihloko ezithatha isikhungo sesikhundla sasiyimeko ye-US ehlabathini kunye namandla angangamandla okuba luhlanga.
Kwiminyaka eyisibhozo edlulileyo, ulawulo luka-Obama lwalujongene kakhulu nemicimbi yenguqu yemozulu kunye nezinye izinto ezibangele ukusingqongileyo ezenze ukwanda kwimiqathango yamashishini yamandla.
Imigaqo embalwa
Ulawulo olungenayo luthembisa ukuba kwimimiselo emitsha nganye, baya kulahla imimiselo emibini ekhoyo kwaye icandelo lezamandla liyakwazi ukuhamba phambili kunye neziko xa kufike kwezo zinguqulelo. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje ukuthotyelwa kwemigaqo karhulumente kuye kwandisa indleko yokwenza ishishini kwi-patch energy. Njengoko loo mithetho ibe yinto encinci kwi-shishini kwiinyanga kunye neminyaka ezayo kuya kuncitshiswa ukunciphisa iindleko zemveliso yamanzi kunye neoli engcolileyo. Ukongezelela, enye yezinye izithembiso zamaphulo kwakukuzimelela amandla aseMelika.
Ukuzimela kwamandla
IUnited States inamafutha amakhulu kunye negesi yendalo ngaphakathi kwemida yayo. Ixabiso eliphantsi lokuvelisa iimveliso zamandla ngenxa yokuba umgaqo omncinci uya kwandisa imveliso. Ukongezelela, uphuhliso lwezobuchwepheshe lunciphise iindleko zokuvelisa kwiminyaka yamuva. Xa kuziwa kwimveliso yeoli, ukulungelelanisa ngokugqithisileyo nokugqithisa okubonakalayo kuye kwaphumela ekuveleni ngokufanelekileyo. Njengoko iindleko zokuphuma kwexabiso kunye nokunyuka kwemveliso, iUnited States inokunyusa ukuthunyelwa kweeoli ezingcolileyo kunye nokwanelisa iimfuno zesizwe kwiminyaka ezayo.
Isakhiwo seZiseko kunye neStimulus yeFiscal
Enye yephulo elithembisa ukususela kwiphathiswa elitsha kukuza kwakhiwa iUnited States ukudala imisebenzi ngokuvuselela iindlela, iibhuloho, ii-airports kunye nezinye iindawo zokuphuhlisa izibonelelo zelizwe. Ekugqibeleni kwakukho iprojekthi enkulu yokwakhiwa kwezibonelelo ezise-United States kwakungama-1950 ngethuba lolawulo lwe-Eisenhower. Isakhiwo siza kufuna iimpahla ezisetyenzisiweyo kunye nemfuno yeensimbi ezininzi, amaminerali kunye neemveliso zamandla ziya kuphakama.
Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ukususela ngoxinzelelo lwemali ka-2008, i-US Federal Reserve iqeshe umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali ukukhuthaza uqoqosho ngokukhuthaza ukuboleka nokuchitha nokukhusela ukugcina. Nangona kunjalo, ibhanki ephambili isoloko ithe inkqubela yemali ingahamba kuphela kwaye kukhuthazwe ukuhlawula imali ukuze kukhuthazwe uqoqosho. Isicwangciso sokwakha izibonelelo siya kunika amandla kwaye kusenokwenzeka ukuba ukukhula koqoqosho kuya kwanda ngo-2017 nangaphezulu. Njengoko i-GDP iphakama, imfuno yesoyile engekho nto iyakwandisa ukunyusa amaxabiso aphezulu. Ixabiso elisezantsi nelinqatyisiweyo leoli liza kugcina imveliso yamandla ngaphezu kweendleko zalo zokuvelisa kwaye ishishini lokuvelisa amandla liya kukhula kuloo ndawo.
Imarike yeebhere kwioli ehlaziyiweyo yanyuka ngoJuni 2014 ukuya kuFebruwari 2016. Ekupheleni kuka-2016, ixabiso lentengiso yexesha elizayo elingenakunqwenelekayo kwiikontraka kwiNew York Mercantile Exchange division yeChicago Mercantile Exchange yayithengisa ngaphezu kwe-$ 50 ngomgqomo nqanaba. Ioli ye-Brent engcolileyo eyenza ukuhweba kwi- Intercontinental Exchange yayikwi -premium kwi-NYMEX engekho. Ngelixa ixabiso lihlala kwisiqingatha kwinqanaba lakwa-2014, lisezingeni apho ukuphuma kwe-US kungaphambuka kunye nemimiselo embalwa kunye nokunyuka kwemfuno yoshishino lamandla e-United States ingaba yintlawulo yokuvuselelwa ngokutsha.
I-XLE yi-Energy Select yeCandelo le-SPDR EFT umkhiqizo obonisa ukusebenza kweenkampani kwioli, i-gas kunye namafutha anokusetyenziswa, izixhobo zamandla kunye neenkonzo zoshishino. Ukwandiswa kwamandla emveliso kunye nemigaqo embalwa kunokuphucula ukusebenza kwiinkampani ezinxulumene namandla. Nangona kunjalo, ixabiso le-ETF ngumsebenzi wexabiso lemveliso. Umvuzo we-ETF ohlukileyo xa ioli i-$ 30 kumgangatho webarrel xa kuthelekiswa ne-$ 50 okanye i-100 yamanqanaba emigqomo. Kodwa xa iinkampani zamandla zinenzuzo, i-ETF iyakwazi ukuyiqonda.