Ngaloo minyaka, ezininzi iimpahla zithumela iirekhodi eziphezulu njengoko i-dollar yase-US ibuthathaka kwaye iirhafu zenzalo yehlabathi zihambela ngaphantsi.
Ithenda leBull kwiZiko
Inkxalabo yezemali ngonyaka we-2008 yabangela ukuba uninzi lwentsebenzo lokutshatyalaliswa kweemarike kuzo zonke iiklasi zee-asethi kunye nezinto ezingekho izinto. Nangona kunjalo, imigaqo-siseko yebhanki yeendawo zokuhlala ezincinci kunye namaxabiso amancinci athatha ixesha elifutshane alandele ukuhlaziywa kwemali ka-2008 ayexhasayo kakhulu kwixabiso lempahla. Ukunciphisa ukulinganiswa kwinqanaba lebhanki eliphambili elivumela igunya lokuthenga imali (kwaye ngamanye amaxesha). I-QE ivumela iibhanki eziphambili ukuba zithinte iirhafu eziphakathi kunye nexesha elide njengoko ziphrinta imali ukuthenga izibophelelo. Ukongezelela, xa abaphathi beemali banciphisa amazinga omyinge wexesha elifutshane, kukhuthaza ukunyuka kwexabiso lokunyuka kwemali ngokukhuthaza ukuboleka nokuchitha nokukhubaza ukugcina.
Ixabiso lentengo lithenda ukuphendula kwiingcinezelo zokunyuka kwexabiso, kwaye yintoni eyenza baxabise ngokuphawulekayo ukususela ngo-2008-2011 njengebhanki eziphambili eziqalisa ukukhusela i-warpath yokuvuselela ukulwa nokunyanzeliswa kweengxaki kunye nokunciphisa imali kwiindawo zasemakhaya kunye noqoqosho lwehlabathi.
Ithenda leBull liya Kuphela
Uqoqosho lwase-United States lukhulu kakhulu kwihlabathi kwaye xa luqala ukucaca ukuba iingozi emva kweengxaki ze-2008 zayehla, ibhanki ephakathi yaqala ukuthumela iimpawu zokuthi i-QE iza kupheliswa kwaye ixabiso lentlawulo elifutshane eliza kufutshane lingahlali lihlala ngonaphakade.
Njengoko uqoqosho lwase-US luphuculwe emva kokuba amanani entengo e-2011 aqala ukuwa. Kwinqanaba lezolimo, isomiso sonyaka ka-2012 lavumela inkunzi ukuba ithamele enye enye ngonyaka ukusuka kwixabiso lexabiso leemveliso zakwa-2013-2015. Ngasekupheleni kuka-2015 nakwiminyaka yokuqala ye-2016, ezininzi izinto ezibonakalayo zawa kwiintlobo ezininzi. Ioli ehlambulukileyo yathengisa yonke indlela ukuya kuma-26.05 ngemitha emibini phakathi koMdumba-Februwari 2016, ngaphezu kwama-82 ekhulwini ngaphantsi kwe-2008. Igolide yawela ku-$ 1046 ngasekupheleni kuka-2015, ngaphezu kwama-45 ekhulwini kwii-2011 zayo eziphakamileyo. I-Copper yathengisa ngaphantsi kwe $ 1.94 ekuqaleni kwe-2016, iipesenti ezingama-58 ngaphantsi kwe-2011 highs. Kukho imizekelo emininzi. Izinto zezolimo, izitye, amanani emandla, kunye neemaminerali zonke zawa kumazinga aphantsi kuneminyaka ekuqaleni kwe-2016.
Iimpahla zizinto ezixabisekileyo kwihlabathi ezinokukhathazeka kakhulu ukuhamba ngemali kunye neemarike ezingenangeniso. Idola iyimali yokugcinwa kwemali yehlabathi, kwaye yindlela yokulinganisela intengo yezinto ezibonakalayo. Xa idola liqinisa izinto eziqhelekileyo zihlala ziphantsi kwaye xa zibuthathaka kwezinye iirrharensi, amanani entlupheko aqhele ukuqonda. Xa kuziwa kumaxabiso omyinge, amanani aphakamileyo akhula izindleko zokuthwala iimpahla zendalo eluhlaza xa isantya somyinge esincinane sichaphazela.
Xa kubonakala ukuba ibhanki ephakathi yase-United States iya kugqiba i-QE ngo-2014 kwaye iqala ukunyusa amaxabiso enzala ngo-2015, idola liyixabisa ngezinye iirhafu, kunye nexabiso lokuthengwa kwexabiso lithintela ngaphantsi. Xa ama-Fed amazinga athatywayo eyokuqala kwiminyaka elithoba kwinyanga kaDisemba 2015 kwaye athembisa ukunyuka okungaphezulu kwezi-3-4 ngo-2016, amaninzi amanani entengo ahanjiswe kwiindawo ezininzi ekupheleni kuka-2015 nakwiminyaka ye-2016.
Impahla ephantsi ngasekuqaleni kuka-2016
U-2016 waqala ngethambo elibi; Iimakethe zasemashishini zasekhaya zaseTshayina zanyuka, kunye nezinye iindile zokulingana emhlabeni jikelele zilandelwe kwimeko ye-Asian contagion. I-China yinkalo yecala lolinganiso oluyisiseko kwizinto eziphathekayo njengoko uhlanga olunabantu abanzi behlabathi kunye nokukhula kwimihla yamashumi emva kwandula ukuba amaTshayina akhulise ukuthengwa kwempahla eluhlaza.
Njengoko i-market yaseShayina yathengisa ngaphantsi, yanikezela isizathu sebhanki esisezantsi sase-United States sokumisa xa kufike kumgaqo-nkqubo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso. I dollar yabuya ephezulu ukusuka kwiikontrakthi zexesha elizayo kunye nexabiso lezinto ezibonakalayo. Ngomhla kaFebruwari 11, xa i-S & P500 yezohlwayo zithunyelwe ilahleko ye-11.5 ngonyaka, i-index yeBaltic Dry yawela kumaxesha onke angama-290. I-Index yeBaltic Dry ibonisa ukuthunyelwa kwemisebenzi yemigodi eyomileyo emhlabeni jikelele. Umsebenzi kwiimarike zemveliso ekumisiwe. Nangona kunjalo, uFebruwari 11 wabhalwa i-lows yezinto ezininzi, kwaye iimarike zaqala ukuphucula kwiiveki kunye neenyanga ezalandela.
Okwangoku, i-US Fed yahlala ngasemva kwaye ayizange ikhulise amaxabiso. Ekuqaleni, kwakungenako ukuphazamiseka kwe-Asia eyamisa iFed ukusuka kwelinye izinga lentengo. Njengoko iJuni isondele, ukuvakasha kwe-United Kingdom ukuphuma kwiYurophu yaseYurophu isongela ukwandisa ukunyaniseka kwiimarike zehlabathi. Ngoxa ubulumko obuqhelekileyo kukuba i-UK yayiza kuhlala eYurophu, iivoti zika-Juni 24 zatshitshisa iimarike xa zivota ukuhamba. U-Brexit wanika iFed isizathu esithile sokuhlala ngasemva. Ngelo thuba, amanani entengo aphakama ngegolide ekhokela indlela. Insimbi ephuzi yathengisa ukuya kwii-1384 zamaRandi emva kokuvota kwe-Brexit kunye nesilivere inyuke ngaphezu kwe-21. Zona zombini izityebhile ezinqabileyo zanyuka emva kweenyanga ezinyangeni ezilandelayo ekuqaleni kukaJulayi kodwa ezinye izinto ezenziwe ngendlela ekhangelekayo.
Ioli ecocekileyo yenyuka ukusuka ngaphezulu kwe-$ 26 ngomgqomo ngoFebruwari ukuya kuma-dollar angama-50 ekuqaleni kwe-Oktobha. Intengo yeswekile yenyuka ukusuka kwi-10.13 iisenti nganye ngeyurela ngo-Agasti 2015 ukuya kuma-24 engama-24 ngo-Septemba 29, 2016. Amaxabiso ensimbi yensimbi, i-zinc, i-tin, i-nickel, kwaye iholele zonke iifayile eziphindwe kabili ngo-2016. Ukutshengisa uphawu lweemarike eziphathekayo, i- Baltic Dry Index yenyuka ukusuka ngo-290 ngoFebruwari ukuya ku-915 ekuqaleni kuka-Oktobha, inzuzo engaphezulu kwama-215 ekhulwini.
Ngelo xesha, ibhanki ephakathi yase-United States ayinakwandisa iirhafu zenzalo ezinikezela ngenkxaso yamanani amaninzi ahlambulukileyo.
Iimpawu ezintsha ze-Bull ezivela kwiiMveliso zeMveliso
Kubonakala ngathi amaxabiso entlupheko afinyelele kwisiseko esibalulekileyo ngokusekelwe kwintlawulo yentlawulo elandelwayo. Amakethi awanakudlula ngokuthe tye, kwaye ngelixa izinto ezibonakalayo zingenakudlula zonke iimpahla, aziyikho. Nangona kunjalo, i-classic assets yeklasi yithumele i-earnings impumelelo ngo-2016, ikhuphuka ngaphezu kwe-10% kwiikota zokuqala zonyaka.
Ngoxa i-US Federal Reserve inokunyusa izinga leFund Fund kwiintlanganiso zeDisemba okanye ekuqaleni kuka-2017, loo nqanaba iya kuphakama kuphela kumaziko angama-50-75 ayenamgangatho ophantsi. Okwangoku, inzala eYurophu naseJapan ihlala kwimihlaba embi. Iirhafu zenzalo ephantsi ziqhubeka nokubonelela ngenkxaso yezinto eziphathekayo njengeentloko zeemarike ngo-2017. Ukongezelela, i-market yebhere kusukela ngo-2012-ekuqaleni kuka-2016 yabangela ukuba abavelisi abaninzi beendleko eziphezulu baphume emakethi, kwaye oko kuthetha ukuba ukuveliswa kusezandleni ezinamandla kunye ezibandakanyiweyo. Ngelo xesha, kukho ubungqina bokuthi iimpahla ezinkulu zezinto ezibonakalayo ziye zancipha ngexesha apho umkhiqizo uye wanciphisa, kwaye ukufunwa kuthathwa. Ukongezelela, iimeko zabantu ziqhubeka nokuxhasa isizathu sokuba abantu abaninzi emhlabeni baya kufuna iimpahla ezingaphezulu kwiminyaka ezayo. Inkcazo yezobugcisa kunye neengqondo eziqhelekileyo zifuna ukuba imfuno ikhuphuke, iincwadi ziwa, kunye namaxabiso aphakame.
Ixabiso ngalinye libonelela ngamanani kunye nokufuna iimpawu . Kukho izinto ezininzi eziza kudlala xa kufikelele kwindlela yokuncincila ubuncinane kwixabiso lezinto ezibonakalayo kubandakanya imozulu, ukunyuswa kwezoqoqosho kunye nezopolitiko kunye nezinye iingcinezelo ezinokuphela kunye nezingapheliyo. Nangona kunjalo, njengempahla yeklasi yezinto ezibonakalayo zenzeke phantsi kwezona zinto zingaphantsi kweye-2015 kunye neyokuqala ngo-2016 kwaye ngoku ke indlela yokuncincika kweyona nto iya kuphakama kwiinyanga kunye neminyaka ezayo.
Amanani amaxabiso amancinci ngamanye amaxabiso angenakucatshulwa. Ngokukhawuleza, ukungahambisani kwempahla kudlula ukungafani kwi-stock, isibophelelo, imali kunye namanye amaqela asethi, ngoko ke; indlela ephakamileyo iya kuba yinto ehamba phambili. U-2016 unokukhunjulwa njengomnyaka apho iimarike zeemveliso, njengeklasi ye-asethi, zibuye zaphakama kwaye kufuneka zizise abatshali-mali kunye nabathengi babuye kwiimarike abazilahlile kwiminyaka yamuva.
Ezinye iingcebiso malunga nokuThengiswa kweMakethe yeMpahla
Wonke umntu uyathanda intengiso yeenkomo ngenxa yengqondo, kulula kakhulu ukuya ixesha elide kunokuba athathe isikhundla esifutshane. Ukwandisa inxaxheba kwabacebisi kunye nabasomali-mali baya kunceda ukwandisa utywala kunye ngamanye amaxesha, ukungazinzi kwihlabathi lezinto eziphathekayo. Enye yemithetho yegolide yokutyalomali kwizinto eziphathekayo kukuba ukuthengwa kweendleko zokudibanisa ngexesha leemveliso zentengiselwano zenkomo zivame ukuvelisa iziphumo ezilungileyo. Kwinqanaba le-asset edibeneyo, kukusoloko kulungele ukufikelela kwiimarike ngokuqapha. Ukuthengwa xa amaxabiso alungisa ukuthotywa kwexesha elifutshane ukwandisa amathuba okufumana inzuzo njengokuba umgangatho oyintloko ekugqibeleni uza kuthatha ixabiso eliphezulu. Xa kuziwa kwimveliso ye-ETF kunye ne-ETN, izithuthi ezingenakulinganiswa zifanelekile ukuthengiswa kwexesha elide. Nangona kunjalo, umntu kufuneka afikelele kwiinqwelo ezichanekileyo ngokufanelekileyo. Ngelixa lizama ukuthenga ii-ETF okanye ii-ETN kwaye zibabambe, ezi mveliso zisebenza ngokugqithiseleyo xa ziqeshwe ngexeshana kakhulu. Ukurhweba okanye utyalo-mali kwiimveliso ezichithwayo zifanelekile kwizikhundla zangaphakathi kwimihla kwaye akufanele zihlale kwiiphothifoliyo zide ngaphezu kweentsuku ezimbalwa. Enye yezinto ezibaluleke kakhulu kumthengisi wezinto eziyimpumelelo okanye umtyalomali ukukwazi ukuqeqeshwa nokunamathela kwisicwangciso sokurhweba. Xa ucingisisa indawo yokutshala imali, qulunqa isicwangciso kuquka ukuba ingozi enjani ukukulungele ukuyithatha kwaye uqinisekise ukuba umvuzo owufunayo uyalingana okanye uphezulu kunalo mngcipheko. Emva kokuba uthathe isikhundla, gcina kwisicwangciso sakho. Khumbula njalo, ungakhathazeki ngokulahlekelwa ithuba, ukuthatha inzuzo ngokukhawuleza, okanye ukuthatha ilahleko. Kwilizwe elincinci lezinto zokuthengisa imali, kukho ithuba elinye nelungelo elifanelekileyo kwikota.