Imigangatho ebalulekileyo yezinto zokuthengisa ezichaza ukuKwakhiwa kweeNkcazo
Abathengisi bemveliso banalo ulwimi lwabo bonke. Ixabiso elicatshulwa kwixabiso lemveliso lidla ngokuba yimali okanye intengo, kodwa nangona kaninzi ixabiso lentsebenzo yenyanga esebenzayo ekuthengiswene ngayo kwixesha elizayo-kwaye ezo xabiso zixela kuphela inxalenye yebali xa lifika kwixabiso impahla.
Umthengisi ubukele umfanekiso omkhulu kakhulu ukuqonda intengo yexabiso.
AmaBanga weeMveliso
Isakhiwo semarike siquka iiprayimesi okanye izaphulelo kwiibakala ezahlukeneyo zeemveliso, kwakunye nokusabalalisa ukuqhutyelwa kwamanzi apho enye impahla yinto yomnye.
Inokuquka ukufaka endaweni enye yezinye iimveliso, kunye nokuthengiswa kwezinto eziphakathi kunye kunye nokusabalala kwekhalenda.
Ikhalenda isasazeka yimiba ehlukeneyo yempahla efana neyeempahla ezifanayo kunye nexesha. Bahlala benika umhlalutyi ngolunye ulwazi olubhetele kwiimeko ezikhoyo zokubonelela kunye neemfuno kwizinto ezithile.
"Kwizinto eziphathekayo zithetha", amagama amabini achaza iimeko zorhwebo ezinxulumene nokusabalala kwekhalenda: impango kunye nokubuyiselwa .
I-Contango ayiyona iMdaniso entsha
Xa umthengisi weemveliso ubhekisela kwimingango, imeko yeemarike yinye apho amaxabiso kwiinyanga zokuhanjiswa ezikude aphezulu kunokuba zikhona kwiinyanga zokuhambisa eziseduze. Nasi umzekelo usebenzisa i-COMEX Gold yexesha elizayo:
Disemba 2014: $ 1192.40
NgoFebruwari 2015: $ 1194.00
Agasti 2015: i-$ 1195.10
Disemba 2015: $ 1202.00
Disemba 2016: $ 1214.00
Disemba 2017: $ 1236.90
Phawula indlela nganye yokuthengiswa kwemvumelwano yekontrakthi ezayo ehamba phambili kwiimarike ze-contango. Amagama athi "ukuthwala okulungileyo" kunye "neemeko eziqhelekileyo" zifana ne-contango.
Ukubuyiselwa Kuyiyo
Xa amaxabiso asondeleyo aphezulu kunexabiso elichaziweyo, loo marike ibuyiselwa. Amanani kwiinyanga ezithunyelwayo ezithunyelwayo ziphantsi ngokuthe gqolo kwiimakethe ezibuyiselwayo okanye ezibuyiselwayo.
Lo mzekelo usebenzisa i-NYMEX yeoli yamafutha engekhoyo:
Novemba 2014: $ 89.83
Disemba 2015: i $ 88.73
Disemba 2016: $ 84.05
Disemba 2017: $ 83.05
Disemba 2018: $ 82.83
Disemba 2019: $ 82.00
Phawula indlela nganye yokuthengiswa kwemvumelwano yekontrakthi ezayo ehamba phambili kwixabiso lemakethe ebuyisiwe. Amagama athi "ukungathinteki" kunye ne "intengiso yemali ye-premium" iyafana nokubuyela emuva.
Kutheni Kutheni Ukubuyiselwa Kwimibuzo?
Ukuba kukho ixesha elifutshane okanye ukunikwa kwexesha elide kwixabiso lempahla, ithuba lokuba isakhiwo semarike siya kubuyela emuva. Amaxabiso aphezulu asekuhlaleni anganyanzelisa imfuno okanye ukunyaniseka ngeli xesha ngeli xesha likhuthaza abavelisi ukuba bandise imveliso ngokukhawuleza njengoko banako ukufumana ithuba lokunyuka kwamaxabiso okuhambisa.
Cinga ngexabiso lentengo. Ukuba iinkomo zexesha elizayo ziphakama ngenxa yokunqongophala, abathengi banokugqiba ukuthenga ingulube njengenxalenye yokuba ingulube ingabizi. Ngelo xesha, abavelisi beeprotheyini zezilwanyana baya kuzama ukwandisa imveliso yenkomo ukwenzela ukuba bathathe inzuzo kumaxabiso aphezulu.
Kutheni Kutheni Umcimbi weContango?
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-surplus kwimpahla iya kubonakalisa njengengqungquthela xa ifikelele kwintengiso yekhalenda. Ingcamango engemva kwe-contango yinto yokuba izinto ezininzi ezikufutshane ekuqinisekiseni akukho nto iqinisekisa ukubonelela ngokubanzi kwixesha elikude.
Enyanisweni, ukuba iimpahla ziphezulu kakhulu, abavelisi banganciphisa kwimveliso ezayo. I-surplus iyakuncipha kwaye amaxabiso aya kuphakama ngenxa yokuvelisa ngaphantsi.
Ukususela kumbono womthengi, izinto ezinkulu ezikhokelela ekunciphiseni kwamanani kunokunyusa imfuno. Cinga ngexabiso lentengo. Xa behla, abantu bavame ukuqhuba ngaphezulu kwaye oku ngokwemvelo kuyancipha ukunikezwa kweempahla. Kwizinto eziphathekayo, iimarike ze-contango nazo zikhoyo kuba inkxaso-mali, ukugcinwa, kunye ne-inshorensi yempahla eninzi kubangela ukuba ezo xabiso eziza kuqhubeka ziphezulu ngenxa yesidingo sokuthwala iimpahla ezidlulileyo.
Imimiselo ye-steak kunye ne-petroli ibonisa ukuba, ngokubhekiselele kumbono wezoqoqosho, amaxabiso entengo asebenzayo. Ukuqonda i-contango kunye nokubuyela emuva kunokukunceda ekuhlaziyeni iimfuno ezikhoyo kunye neemfuno zeemarike zentengiso.
Imveliso kwi-Market Market-Umzekelo Wembali
Amanani entengo angena kwiimarike zeebhere xa zenza iindawo eziphakamileyo ngo-2011. Le marike yebhere yathatha umlotha ngo-2015 ngezizathu ezibini: Idola yayinobudlelwane obuphambene nexabiso okanye izinto ezibonakalayo, kwaye yahambisa amaxabiso aphezulu kunye neempahla ezenzileyo ngokushukumisela ngaphantsi.
Ngokukhawuleza, kwakukho ukucotha kwezoqoqosho eChina . I-China yayisisigxina semfuno ye-equation kwimpahla emininzi iminyaka. Imarike yenkomo ephela ngo-2011 yayiyinxalenye ngenxa yokusetyenziswa kweTshayina kunye nokugcinwa kwezinto ezibonakalayo. I-China iyancipha, ixabiso lemveliso lihanjiswe ngaphantsi.
Ngaphandle kwendawo ephantsi kwezinga lentlalo, inxalenye yonyaka omnye kwintsebenzo yexesha elizayo elingenayo ioli-esebenzayo ngokumalunga nomvumelwano onyaka owodwa-ukuqhutyelwa kwii-20 zeepesenti kumaxesha athile kunyaka.
Ingqungquthela ngoDisemba 2015 / Disemba 2016 I-NYMEX i-oil-free spreads yema ngaphezu kweepesenti ezili-10 ngoSeptemba 8, 2015, ingaphaya kwamaxabiso omhla kwixesha. I-contango kwiimarike ezininzi zempahla ngoSeptemba 2015 ibhekisele ekuhlanganisweni kwempahla eninzi kunye nemfuno ephantsi.
I-Contango kunye nokubuyiselwa yinkqubo yangempela-time indicator yokubonelela kunye nezidingo ezisemgangathweni .