Imbuyiselo yangaphambili ingakhohlisa ngaphandle kokuba wazi ukuba uyayichaza. Uninzi lwentlawulo yerhafu luchazwe ngendlela yokubuya kwonyaka okanye ukubuya kwekota ngonyaka .
Ngokomzekelo, ukuba utyalo-mali uthi ngonyaka odlulileyo uneminyaka engama-9 yokubuya kwe-year%, oko kuthetha ukuba utyalomali ngoJanuwari 1, kwaye uthengisa utyalo-mali ngo-Disemba 31, ngoko ufumane ukubuyiswa kwe-9%.
Ukuba utyalo-mali luchaza ukuba libuyiselwe kwi-8% ngonyaka emva kweminyaka elishumi, oko kuthetha ukuba uthe watyaliswa ngoJanuwari 1, kwaye uthengisa utyalo-mali ngo-Disemba 31 kwiminyaka elishumi emva koko, ufumene i-8% ngonyaka.
Nangona kunjalo, ngaloo minyaka elishumi, unyaka omnye utyalo-mali unyuke u-20% kunye nolunye unyaka, mhlawumbi unyuke kwi-10%. Xa ulinganisa iminyaka elishumi, ufumene ukubuya kwe-8%.
Ingozi yokusebenzisa umyinge wokubuyisela
Oku kubuyiselwa okuqhelekileyo kufana nokuthi uhambe uhambo kunye no-50 mph. Uyazi ukuba awuzange uhambe nge-50 mph ixesha lonke. Maxa wambi wawuhamba ngokukhawuleza; ngamanye amaxesha uhambahamba kakhulu.
I-Nassim Taleb, encwadini yakhe ethi Black Swan (Penguin, 2008), inecandelo elibizwa ngokuthi "Musa ukuwela umlambo ukuba ngaba (ngamanqanaba) ezine inyawo." Ingxelo ibalulekile ukucinga. Uninzi lwemilinganiselo yezemali lusebenzisa imilinganiselo. Akukho siqinisekiso sokuthi utyalo-mali lwakho luya kufumana ukubuyela okuphakathi.
Ukutshatyalaliswa kwintlupheko yeentlawulo ezivela kumyinge wazo. Ngokomzekelo, ukususela ngowe-1926-2015, imarike yeempahla zembali, ibuyele kwi-S & P 500 Index, i-10% ngonyaka.
Kodwa loo myinge iquka iminyaka engama-43.3% (1931) kunye no-54% (1933), kunye neminyaka yakutshanje nje ngo-2008 xa bekuhla kwe-37%, kwaye ngo-2009 xa ikhuphuke ngo-26.5% *.
Olu hluko lweentlawulo ezivela kumyinge lubonisa umngcipheko wokulandelana . Unokwenza isiphumo esisodwa ngokusekelwe kubuyiselo obuqhelekileyo obubuyiselweyo kodwa ube nesiphumo esihlukileyo ngokupheleleyo ngenxa yokungahambisani nokubuyiselwa kwembuyekezo.
Ukubuyisa okubuyiselayo Ukunikezela ngombono ogqithisileyo
Ukubuyiselwa kweembuyekezo kunika indlela engokoqobo yokujonga ukubuyiswa kotyalo-mali. Ukubuya kweminyaka elishumi kuza kukubonisa ubuncinane kwiminyaka elishumi kunye neminyaka elishumi kunazo zonke oye wazibonela ngokujonga iinyanga ezilishumi ezingenakuqala ngoJanuwari, kodwa kwakhona ukuqala ngoFebruwari 1, Matshi 1, ngo-Ephreli 1, njl njl.
Utyalo-mali olufanayo oluneeminyaka elishumi lokubuya kweminyaka eyi-8% lungaba neyona ndlela ihamba phambili yokubuya ngokuphindaphinda kwe-10% kunye nokubuya kwe-10%. Ukuba uhlala umhlalaphantsi, oko kuthetha ukuba kuxhomekeke kwiminyaka elishumi elithatha umhlala phantsi kuwe, unokufumana inzuzo ye-16% ngonyaka kwi-portfoliyo yakho okanye ukulahleka kwe-3% ngonyaka. Ukubuyiswa kokubuyisela kukunika ingcamango engakumbi yento enokuthi yenzeke ngokwenene kwimali yakho, kuxhomekeke kwiminyaka elishumi otyalomali.
Ukusebenzisa ukubuyisela ukuhamba okuya kufana nokuthetha ukuba ngaphezu kohambo olude, kuxhomekeka kwiimeko zemozulu, unokulinganisela u-45 mph, okanye ungasilinganisa i-65 mph.
Ndiyifake i-graphed yangaphambili yokubuyisela iifowuni zeefowuni kunye nezikhonkco zeekhonkco ukubonisa indlela eyahlukileyo ngayo amaxesha athathekayo xa kuthelekiswa namaxesha amaninzi kakhulu. Bonke abatyali-mali bexesha elide kufuneka bajonge ukubuyiswa kwembuyekezo ngaphambi kokubeka iindleko zokubuyela kwiiplani zabo zokufumana umhlalaphantsi.
Ukuba usebenzisa i- calculator yomhlala-phantsi yomhlalaphantsi kwaye ucinga ukuba unokufumana imali ephezulu kakhulu kunokuba yiyiphi into enokuyibuyisela yona ingashiya ingeniso yakho yomhlalaphantsi ingozi. Kukulungele ukucwangcisa okugqithisileyo nokuphelisa ukufumana into engcono kunokuba ube nesicwangciso esisebenza kuphela xa ufumana ngaphezu kweziphumo eziqhelekileyo. Awuqinisekanga kuphela kwimozulu engcono kwi-retrait.
> * Ukubuyiselwa okuvela kwi-Dimensional Fund Abacebisi, i- Matrix Book 2016 iphe. 14-15.