I-Stock Market Imilinganiselo kunye neMyinge yeZindleko zeNtengo
Indlela yokuchazwa kwiMbali ye-Historical P / E ye-S & P 500 Index
Nangona oku akuyona indlela echanekileyo yokuchaneka kwexesha elifutshane leemakethe zokuguquka kwemali, umlinganiselo wemali-mali, owaziwayo nje ngokuba "P / E," ye-S & P 500 Index, ingasetyenziselwa ibharometer ngokubanzi ukuchonga ukuba ngaba iisitokhe zinokugqithiswa okanye zigqithise.
Ukubhekisela, umyinge we-P / E umlinganiselo wesitokethi ukususela ngo-1870 sele ube malunga ne-15.00. Oku kuthetha ukuba, ukuba uthetha ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lesitokisi esikhulu kwisikhokelo se-S & P 500 kwaye uhlula ixabiso elihlangeneyo ngentsingiselo efanelekileyo, ufumana i-P / E kwinto abaninzi abatyali-mali ababizayo "imarike." Ukuba le P / E iphakamileyo kakhulu kunama-15.00, kunengqiqo ukulindela ukuba amanani e-stock awele ngexesha elithile kwaye ukuba i-P / E iphantsi, unokulindela ukuba amanani aphakame.
Ukukhwabanisa i-P / E: Kutheni Kungaba Ngumbonakaliso Okhohlisayo
Ngoku ngokubambisana, ukulinganiswa kwee-stocks kunokusuka kude kwi-15.00 P / E. Enyanisweni, i-P / E idla ngokugqithiseleyo inyaniso yezoqoqosho. Ngokomzekelo, ngo-conseillerperspectives.com, "Ngo-1999, iinyanga ezimbalwa phambi kwe-Tech Bubble, inqanaba eliqhelekileyo le-P / E liye lalingama-34. Kwangena kwiminyaka engama-47 kwiminyaka emibini emva kokuba imarike iphume." Imali yawa ngokukhawuleza kunamanani.
I-P / E iyingqinisiso (intlawulo eyahlula ngemali engenayo). Ngoko ke, ukuba umvuzo (i-denominator) uhlawuleza kunamaxabiso (i-numerator), i-P / E ingakhohlisa kwaye yenze ukuba i-P / E ihambelane okanye mhlawumbi isalathisi sokungena.
Isishwankathelo, i-P / E ngaphaya kwe-15.00 kwi-S & P 500 Index ayibonakali uphawu lokuthengisa, okanye i-P / E engaphantsi kweso sigaba seminyaka sibonisa umqondiso wokuthengisa.
Nangona kunjalo, utyalo-mali onokuqonda unokusebenzisa i-S & P ye-P / E njengenye yeendlela ezininzi zempilo kwimarike yemasheya. I-P / E eqhelekileyo ibheka emva kweenyanga ezilishumi elinambini okanye "TTM" kwaye siyazi ukuba elidlulileyo ayikho isiqinisekiso sokusebenza kwexesha elizayo.
Ukusuka kuhlalutyo olusisiseko , amanani amasheya abonakalisa ulindelo malunga nekamva kodwa abonakalisa nemfuno yemali njengempahla. Ngokomzekelo, ngasekuqaleni kuka-2010, izivuno zebhondi zawa kunye ne- US Treasury Bonds zihlawula ngokusondeleyo nentsalo kunye nabatyalomali ababekhangela ingeniso baqala ukuthenga amasheya ahlawula imali kunye neengxowa-mali ezabelanayo .
Ukongezelela, umgama ngexesha kwizinto eziphazamisayo zorhwebo lwe-2008 ukuhla kwenyameko kubanika abatshali-mali ukuzithemba ukuba bangene kwiimpahla, njengoko amaxabiso ezinkcukacha ezifana ne-Dow Jones Industrial Average, afumane amanqanaba okurekhoda ekuqaleni kuka-2013, xa i-S & P 500 P / U-E wayesekho, uqikelele, umlinganiselo wesiganeko we-15.00. Amanani e-Stock aqhubeka ekhuphuka ngo-2014 kwaye ekupheleni kuka-2015, i-S & P 500 P / E yayingaphantsi kwama-21.00.
Ukuziphendulela: Ulwazi olukule ndawo lunikezelwa ngeenjongo zengxoxo kuphela, kwaye akufanele lichazwe ngokungeniswa njengeengcebiso zotyalo-mali. Ngaphandle kweemeko ngaba le nkcazelo ibonisa isincomo sokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa iziqinisekiso.