I-Hypothesis efanelekileyo yeMakethi (EMH)

EMH Inkcazo kunye neeFomu

Usenokungayiva nge-Intelligent Market Hypothesis, eyaziwa nangokuthi i-EMH, kodwa mhlawumbi uye wazibuza ukuba kutheni nabaninzi abanamava abaxhamli beefestifoliyo kunye nabanye abatshali bezakhono abahlala belahlekelwa kwiimali zeemarike ezinkulu (okanye iinqaku xa ukhetha), njenge- S & P 500 Index .

I-EMH inceda ukucacisa le ngxaki.

I-Hypothesis efanelekileyo yeMakethe: EMH Inkcazo

I-Hypothesis eSebenzayo eyiNtengiso (EMH) ithi ngokuqinisekileyo ukuba yonke into eyaziwayo malunga nokugcinwa kweemali, ezifana nezitokisi, sele sele ihlanganisiwe kwixabiso lazo ziqinisekiso.

Ngenxa yoko, ukucinga ukuba oku kuyinyani, akukho naluphi uhlalutyo olunokunika umnini-mali umgca phezu kwabanye abatyala-mali. I-EMH ayifuni ukuba abatyali-mali babe nengqiqo; Kuthetha ukuba abatyali-zimali ngabanye baya kusebenza ngokungaqhelekanga kodwa, ngokubanzi, imarike ihlala "ilungile." Ngendlela elula, "ukusebenza kakuhle" kuthetha "okuqhelekileyo." Umzekelo, ukusabela okungavamile kolwazi olungavamile luqhelekileyo.

Ukuchaza iifom ze-EMH

Kukho iintlobo ezintathu ze-EMH: Unqongqo, unemiqilima kwaye unamandla. Nantsi into ekuthethwa ngayo nganye ngemarike.

• Ifomu ephosakeleyo EMH: Icebisa ukuba lonke ulwazi oludlulileyo lithengwa kwii-securities. Uhlalutyo oluphambili lwamasitokethi lunokunika umnini-mali ngolwazi ukuvelisa imbuyekezo engaphezulu kweemarike kwixesha elifutshane kodwa akukho "iipateni" ezikhoyo. Ngoko uhlalutyo olusisiseko aluboneleli ngethuba elide kunye nohlalutyo lobugcisa aluyi kusebenza.
• Ifom yeSemi-Strong EMH: Ibonisa ukuba akukho uphando olusisiseko okanye uhlalutyo lobugcisa lunganika inzuzo kumtyalomali kwaye olo lwazi lutsha lukhawuleza kwinqanaba lokugcina.

• Ifomu elomeleleyo EMH: Kuthetha ukuba zonke iinkcukacha, zoluntu kunye nolwangasese, zithengwa kwii-stocks kwaye akukho mtyalo-mali onokufumana inzuzo phezu kweemarike ngokubanzi. IFom eqinile EMH ayitsho ukuba abatshali-mali okanye abaphathi bemali abanakho ukufumana ukubuyiswa okungaqhelekanga ngokutsha kodwa ukuba kukho amaxesha angaphandle okubandakanyiweyo kumyinge.

Abaxhasi be-EMH, nangona ifom yabo ebuthakathaka, badla ngokutyalomali kwiimali zenkcazo okanye ii-ETF ezithile kuba zilawulwa ngokungathandabuzekiyo (ezi mali zizama nje ukulingana, ukungabikho, ukubuyiswa kweemarike jikelele). I-index yotyalo-mali inokuthi bayamathela kwisigqibo esisodwa, "Ukuba awukwazi ukubetha ', qhafaza' em. Esikhundleni sokuzama ukubetha i-market, baya kuthenga i-index index efaka i-securities efanayo kunye ne-index benchmark index.

Ngaloo nto yathi, kuya kubakho abatyala-mali abaza kubetha ixabiso lemarike. Nangona kunjalo, aba batyali-mali bancinci kwaye kunengqiqo yokuba ubuncinci inxalenye yempumelelo yabo inokubangela inhlanhla.

Ukufumana okungaphezulu kwi-EMH, kuquka iingxabano ezichasene nayo, khangela le phepha lePhepha le-Market Hypothesis evela kumbhali wezoqoqosho uBurton G Malkiel.

Ukuziphendulela: Ulwazi olukule ndawo lunikezelwa ngeenjongo zengxoxo kuphela, kwaye akufanele lichazwe ngokungeniswa njengeengcebiso zotyalo-mali. Ngaphandle kweemeko ngaba le nkcazelo ibonisa isincomo sokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa iziqinisekiso.