Indlela abaTyalo-mali abangayilungiselela ngayo iinguqu zehlabathi
Uphuhliso luye lwavela eUnited States emva kwe-dot-com boom ekuqaleni kwee-2000 kwaye iyancipha kule minyaka elishumi edlulileyo. Ngexesha elifanayo, ukuhlaziywa kwehlabathi jikelele kuye kwakhawuleza ukudluliselwa kwethekhnoloji emhlabeni jikelele. Ezi zintlobo zibonisa ukuba abantu, endaweni yokuvuselela, baya kuphinda babe ngumqhubi oyintloko wokukhula koqoqosho. I-China kunye ne-Indiya iya kuphinda ibe yintlanzi yehlabathi ngobukhulu kwiminyaka ezayo.
I-PricewaterhouseCoopers, iqumrhu lokubonisana ngamazwe aseLondon, lipapashe ingxelo ebizwa ngokuba yi -World ngo-2050 ngoFebruwari 2017 ichaza indlela umgaqo-nkqubo wezoqoqosho jikelele uzakutshintsha ngayo ngo-2050. Kwingxelo, abaphandi bakholelwa ukuba uqoqosho lwase-United States luya kufakwa kwindawo yesithathu- emva kweIndiya kunye neChina-kwaye ininzi yeYurophu iya kuvela kwiindawo ezilishumi eziphezulu kakhulu kwezoqoqosho. Ezi zintlobo zingaba nempembelelo ebalulekileyo kubatyalomali bamazwe ngamazwe.
Uqoqosho lwe-10 oluphezulu ngo-2050
I-PwC Ihlabathi ngomhla we-2050 ingxelo ibonisa ukuba iimarike ezikhulayo ziza kubangela ezininzi kwihlabathi ezilishumi eziphezulu ezisemgangathweni ngemveliso emveliso yasekhaya (GDP) kunye nokuthengisana kwamandla (PPP) ngo-2050.
Itheyibhile engezantsi ibonisa uqikelelo lwee-International Monetary Fund (IMF) ze-2016 kunye ne-PwC ye-2050 ukubonisa olu tshintsho.
2016 | 2050 |
KwiChina | |
eunited States | Indiya |
eunited States | |
Indoneshiya | |
Brazil | |
Rhashiya | |
Japhan | |
Jemani | |
iunited Kingdom |
Ingxelo yePwC iphinda ibhekane noqoqosho olukhula ngokukhawuleza phakathi kuka-2016 no-2050, olubandakanya iimarike zomhlaba ngokucacileyo namhlanje.
Izwe | I-GDP Growth Rate | Isikhundla Sitshintsho |
Viyethnam | 5.1 ekhulwini | 12 Iindawo |
Filipayinzi | 4.3 ekhulwini | 9 Iindawo |
Nayijeriya | 4.2 ipesenti | 8 Iindawo |
Ngokubanzi, i-PwC ikholelwa ukuba uqoqosho lwamazwe ngamazwe luza kuphinda luphindwe kabini ngo-2042, lukhule ngezinga eliphakathi kwama-2.6 ekhulwini phakathi kuka-2016 no-2050. Ezi zityalo ziya kuqhutyelwa ngokubanzi kumazwe athengisa amashishini, kuquka neBrazil, eChina, India, Indonesia, Mexico , IRashiya kunye neTurkey, okuya kukhula kwinqanaba elingama-3.5 elingama-3,3, xa kuthelekiswa ne-1.6% yezinga eliphakathi kweCanada, iFransi, iJamani, i-Italy, iJapan, i-UK kunye ne-US.
Impembelelo kubaTyalo-mali
I-home-country Bias: Abaninzi-zimali batyala ukugqithisa kakhulu kwiityala kwilizwe labo. Ngokomzekelo, iVanguard ifumene ukuba abatyali-zimali base-United States babambe malunga neepesenti ezingama-29 ezingaphezulu kweemali zase-US kuneentengo zemali zentengo yase-US, okwangama-43 ekhulwini, ngo-Disemba 31, 2010. Imfundiso yeengxelo ibonisa ukuba abatyali-mali kufuneka banikezele ezinye izithenjwa zangaphandle, ukubuyiswa kwexesha elide.
I -country-home bias ingaba yinkathazo ngakumbi njengoko i-United States ithatha imali engaphantsi kwezona zentengiso yehlabathi: ukuba ngaba abatyala-mali be-US bagcina ukwabiwa okufanayo kwiimali-mali zangaphandle, nangona kuhla kwe-US share of capital market, i-home-country bias.
Abatyalomali kufuneka bacebe ukunikezela ngaphezulu kwiimarike ezikhulayo kwiiminyaka ezayo ukuphepha le nto ixabisekileyo.
Iinguqu zemihlaba: I-United States inandiphe inxaxheba yobunkokheli kubutyebi behlabathi lonke iminyaka, kodwa ezo zintengantloni zingaqala ukutshintsha ngokunyuka kweemarike ezikhulayo. Ngokomzekelo, i-dollar yaseMelika sele ibe yiyona nto ibaluleke kakhulu yelizwe, kodwa i-yuan yaseTshayina ingayifumana idola kwiminyaka ezayo. Oku kunokuba nempembelelo embi kwinqanaba le-dollar yase-US ngexesha elide kwaye linokuthi lonakalise uqoqosho lwamazwe onke ukuba i-yuan iyancipha.
I-China, iRashiya kunye nezinye iimarike ezikhulayo ziye zathatha inxaxheba enkulu kakhulu kwiingxoxo zehlabathi. Oku kungabonisa umngeni kwi-United States naseYurophu kwiminyaka ezayo, ngokukodwa xa kuthengiswa imiba yezohwebo okanye imbambano yehlabathi.
Ezi zintengiselwano ziyakwazi ukuguqula iphrofayili yengozi yemarike yehlabathi jikelele ngokunyusa ukwanda kweengozi ze-geopolitical njengoko iingxaki zamandla zidlala phakathi kwamazwe ngamaxesha.
Ngaphantsi
I-United States ibe yinto ephezulu yezoqoqosho kwihlabathi ixesha elide, kodwa ezo zintengiselwano zitshintsha ngokukhawuleza njengeChina, iIndiya kunye nezinye iimarike ezikhulayo ziyazuza. Abatyalomali kufuneka baqaphele ukutshintshwa kwehlabathi lonke kunye nokubeka isikhundla sabo kwipotfoliyo yokuphepha i-home-country bias ngokusebenzisa ukunyuka kwamazwe ngamazwe, kunye nokulungiswa kweengozi zokungena kwezemvelo ezingabangelwa kule mizabalazo yamandla.