Ukususela malunga no-2000, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso entsimbi kunye nefuthe elikhulayo lemarike yezemali kwixabiso lezinyithi kukhokelela kwingxoxo ephakamileyo kunye nokuhlaziywa kwezinto ezibangela ukungabi nantoni kwempahla.
Ixabiso lentengo leMpahla
Kuye kwaqondakala ixesha elide ukuba amanani entengo ayimfuneko kakhulu kunezinye izinto ezininzi zabathengi nje ngenxa yento ethile yezoqoqosho ababhekiselele kwixabiso lokungahambi.
Ngamanye amagama, ukuba imfuno yobhedu ngokukhawuleza ihamba, umphumo wehlabathi awukwazi ukuphendula ngokukhawuleza.
Imigodi kufuneka ivumeleke kwaye i-concentrators eyakhiwe. Ngokufanayo, abathengi abanako ukubeka esinye isinyithi esinye xa amaxabiso aphakama okanye awa.
Umphumo wokungabi nantoni kunzima ukulinganisa kodwa ngokuqhelekileyo kubonwa njengento engalunganga kuba kuzisa ukungaqiniseki ngamanqanaba exabiso elizayo. Xa abakhiqizi kunye nabathengi bengenayo ingcamango enhle yintoni na amaxabiso ezayo, abanako ukutshala imali kwimveliso emitsha okanye izicelo zetsimbi.
Ngokwephepha elipapashwe yi-Federal Reserve ngo-2012, iminyaka elishumi phakathi kuka-2002 no-2012 yaboniswa ukwanda kwamanani entengo kunye nokulungelelaniswa kwexabiso lentengo kwimpahla.
Ukulinganisa ukunyanzelisa
Ukutshatyalaliswa ngokuqhelekileyo kunokulinganiselwa kunkulu kunokuphambuka okuqhelekileyo kwixabiso elide elide elide lentsimbi.
Ababhali bachaza indlela amaxabiso athathaka-mali aphantsi atya ukunciphisa ukunyaniseka kwexabiso lokuthengiswa kwempahla ngenxa yokuba iindleko ezithwele ezantsi zivumela abathengi ukuba babambe inqolobane enkulu, ngaloo ndlela, ukuthungula okwexeshana lwamaxabiso (umz.
Iingeniso eziphantsi ezenzalo, nangona kunjalo, azikho mpe mbelelo kwizinto eziqhubekayo zokutshutshiswa (umzekelo, ukwanda kweemfuno ezivela kwiimarike ezikhulayo).
Ukuhlolisisa ngokukhawuleza le ngqungquthela, abalobi baphetha ngelithi ukunyuka kwenyameko kwiminyaka elishumi kubangelwa ukwanda kwezinto eziqhubekayo kwiimarike zemveliso (funda: ukukhula kwe-China).
Iphepha le-Federal Reserve ligxininisa nempembelelo yomgaqo-nkqubo wezemali kwixabiso lemveliso phezu kwefuthe lezixhobo zemali.
IMakethe yeMali kunye nexabiso leMpahla yexabiso
Ngeli xesha, iBhanki ye-Reserve yase-Australia iphinde iphrinte iphepheni echasene nempembelelo yeemarike zemali kwixabiso lexabiso lemveliso.
Kulo phepha, ababhali bakhawula ukuba (1) kuba ukwanda kwamanani kwakunomlinganiselo omkhulu kwimpahla eninzi ngaphandle kweemarike zezemali eziphuhlisiwe njengoko bekunjalo nalabo abaneemarike ezizayo kunye (2) bafumene i-heterogeneity ebalulekileyo kwimirhumo yamanani phakathi kwempahla kungakhathaliseki ukuba kukho iimarike zezemali, izinto ezisemgangathweni zihlala ziyingxaki ebalulekileyo ekunqumeni amanani entengo, kungekhona impembelelo enkulu kunye ekhulayo yezixhobo zemali.
Baphetha ngokuthi ngokunyuka kwe-2000 "ukunyuka kwamanani kunye nokunyaniseka akuzange kwenzeke ngaphambili, kwenzeke ngezinye iinkonzo ezinkulu kunye nokudityaniswa kwemfuno kwiphondo elidlulileyo," kwaye "(t) nango kungabikho ubungqina obukholisayo ( ubuncinci ukuya kumhla) ukuba iimarike zezemali ziye zaba nempembelelo embi kwiimarike zentengiso kwixesha lexesha elibhekiselele kuqoqosho. "
Ziziphi iimakethi zeMali eziye zachaphazela iiMetal ezincinane
Ukuhlolwa kwempembelelo zemali kwiincinci ezincinci, ezincinci, ezifana ne-indium, bismuth , i- molybdenum okanye isinyithi sehlabathi ezingabonakaliyo, mhlawumbi ziya kuba nezigqibo ezihlukileyo ngokupheleleyo.
Ukuqhubela phambili kunye neencwadi ezithile, i-CEPII yeFrench-tank ye-tank-tank isanda kutshicilela iphepha elisebenzayo lokuhlola ukuba ixabiso lexabiso lemveliso libonisa ukungaqiniseki kwe-macroeconomic.
Abaphandi bafumanisa ukuba izitye ezinqabileyo ezifana negolide kunye nesilivere, ngokuqinisekileyo kwifom, ziphendulwa njengeendawo ezikhuselekileyo ngexesha lokungaqiniseki. Ezinye iimarike zeemveliso zibonisa ukuvelela kokungaqiniseki kwe-macroeconomic. Ezi zihlandlo zokungaqiniseki, njengexesha lokuthungelwano komhlaba wonke emva kowe-2007, akubangakho ukuphumela kwintengo enkulu.
I-Cycle Price yeeMveliso zeMakethe
Ekugqibeleni, iBhunga leSizwe loPhando loPhando loQoqosho olulungiselelwe nguDavid Jack ngo-2013 lihlolisise ukuhamba kwexabiso lempahla kwiimarike zeemveliso ezingama-30 kwiminyaka eyi-160.
Iziphumo zeJacks - ukuba kukho ukunyuka ubude kunye nobukhulu bezinto zokuhamba kweempahla kunye nokujikeleza kwezinto zokuhamba ngokusuka kwenkqubo yeBretton Woods - kukhokelela ekubeni akholelwe ukuba amaxesha okutshintsha ngokukhululeka kwamaxabiso athatha inxaxheba kwimiba kunye nokulinganisa kwexabiso lokunyaniseka .
Ukuba uphando luyakukholelwa, ixabiso lezinyithi kunye nezinye izinto ziye zafumana amaqondo angaphezu kweyantlupheko yentsholongwane ukususela ngo-2000. Oku akuzange kube ngenxa yokunyuka, ukunikezelwa kokungaqiniseki kunye nokudityaniswa kwemfuno, kodwa ukuguqula izinto ezisemgangathweni kwimarike yomhlaba wonke.
Nangona igalelo lezinto ezintsha zezimali (i-future, derivatives, imali yemali-mali njl. Njl) ziye zavezwa kwiimarike ezininzi zentsimbi, ayizange iboniswe ukuba ezi zibangelwa ukungazinzi okukhulu.
Ekugqibeleni, ukunyuka okukhulu kwexabiso kwimarike yezinto eziphathekayo kuye kwahambelana nokusabalaliswa kwamazinga okutshintshiselana ngokukhululeka. Njengoko i-China ihamba ngokubhekiselele ekuguqukisweni okukhulu kwendawo yokubamba, le nto inokuba negalelo elongezelelweyo kwixesha elizayo lokugqithisa.
Imithombo:
Gruber, uJoseph W. noRobert J. Vigfusson. Iimali zokuHlaba kunye neNzululwazi kunye nokuHlanganiswa kwexabiso leMpahla. IBhodi yabaGqwetha be-Federal Reserve System. Iimviwo zeeNgxowa-mali zamazwe ngamazwe. Novemba 2012
I-URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2012/1065/ifdp1065r.pdf
Dwyer, uAlexandra, uGeorge Gardner noTomas Williams. Iimpawu zeMveliso zeMveliso zeeMveliso zeMveliso zeMveliso zeMveliso zeMveliso. Ibhanki ye-Reserve yase-Australia. I-Quarter ye-Bulletin kaJuni 2011.
URL: http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2011/jun/pdf/bu-0611-7.pdf
Joets, Marc, Valerie Mignon kunye noTovonony Razafindrabe. Ngaba ukungahambisani kwamanani entengo kubonisa ukungaqiniseki kwe-macroeconomic? ICIPII yoPhulo lwePhepha. Matshi 2015.
I-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-02.pdf
IiJacks, David S. Ukusuka eBomom ukuya eBust: I-Typology yexabiso leMpahla yeeNqobo kwixesha elide. IBhunga leSizwe loPhando loQoqosho. Iphepha lePhepha. Matshi 2013.