I-Barometer ye-CNN ye-Investor Can reveal the Times of Purchasing Times
I-CNN ibhekisela kwizinto ezi-7 ezahlukileyo zokubeka amanqaku atyala kumali-mali kwisilinganiso se-zero ukuya kwi-100 (ukwesaba okukhulu ukunyuka ngokunyanisekileyo). Ngaphambi kokuba sichaze indlela esebenza ngayo, makhe siphendule umbuzo onokuzonwabisa ngawo njengoko ufunda oku: Kuphi ikhonkco ngoku?
Ngeveki yokugqibela ngoJulayi, isalathisi sasihlala kwi-70: Leyo yintsimi yenkanuko, kodwa ingaphantsi kwamanqaku angama-79 edlulileyo, awayeza kuwela phantsi kwe-"ubuhaha obukhulu."
Izinto ezi sixhenxe zikwazisa uloyiko kunye noBhongo:
- Ixabiso lentengo Isonka: Ingakanani umrhumo wexabiso ophezulu okanye owenziwe kwiNew York Stock Exchange? Apha, i-FGI incike kwi-data evela kwi-Index ye-McClellan Volume Summation Index.
- I-Momentum yeMakethe: Zikude kangakanani i-S & P 500 ngaphezulu okanye ngaphantsi kwe-125-day average?
- Imfuno ye-Junk Bond: Ngaba abatyali-mali bathengisa iindlela eziphezulu zokubeka ingozi ?
- IsiCwangciso soKhuseleko oluKhuselekileyo: Ngaba abatyali-mali bajikeleza baba ngama-stocks ukususela kwindawo ekhuselekileyo yokhuseleko?
- Ixabiso lentengo Amandla: Ziyiphi i-stock of stocks ezithatha iiveki ezingama-52 eziphakamileyo njengalezo zonyaka omnye?
- I-Market Volatility: Nanku i-CNN isebenzisa i-Chicago Board Options Exchange Exchange Volatility Index, okanye i-VIX, igxininisa kwisilinganiso seminyaka engama-50.
- Ukubeka kunye neenkowuni zeeFowuni: Ubeka ngaphi iindlela ozikhethileyo ezikhethiweyo emva kokukhethwa kweefowuni (uburha) okanye uzigqithise (ukwesaba)? Faka iindlela zokuvumela abatyali-mali ukuba bathengise ngexabiso elivunyelweneyo okanye phambi komhla ochaziweyo, ezo zikhethi zokukhetha zisebenza ngendlela efanayo, kuphela ngokuthenga.
Abanye abakhohlisayo bayichitha isalathisi njengethuluzi lokutsalana. Umnikezeli kwiwebhusayithi ye-Alpha yokufuna, umzekelo, ubona i-FGI njengento ethile ye-barometer yesigxina esithile. Ibhulogi, ehamba nge "JAMM Investing", yenza ukuba kubekho izixhobo ezilungileyo ekuthi akusikho isixhobo sokwenza amanqaku okukhawuleza: "Ukubuyela emva kwaphakathi ko-2010, isicwangciso sokuthenga-ukubamba i-S & P 500 babuyela kuma-95 ekhulwini.
Isicwangciso sokuthengisa-ngokukratshi siza kubuyisa kuphela ama-50 ekhulwini okanye ngaphantsi. "
Kanti oko kuthatha ukuba uzakusebenzisa i-index yenkxaso-futshane yexesha elifutshane, xa kunjalo, inokuqashwa ngokubanzi ngokubanzi ukuxhasa ukufika kwimarike ngexesha elifanelekileyo. Ukwenza oko, uya kufuna ukuqwalasela ixesha lokungena kwakho lokutsalwa kotyalo-mali xa iingcebiso zenkcazo zinobuqalo.
Kutheni oku? Ukuqala, ungayixelisi ngaphantsi kwegunya lebhayisili uWarren Buffett, oye waxela ukuba akafuni nje ukuthenga izitoko xa bephantsi: "Into enhle yenzeke kuthi xa i nkampani enkulu ufumana ingxaki yesikhashana. ... Sifuna ukuzithenga xa besesetekeni sokusebenza. "
Kwaye kwathathwa ngale ndlela, i-FGI iba yinto ye-bellwether xa ukwesaba kuphezulu, kunye nezikhokelo zokukhathazeka ezingenangqondo nezenzo zabanye abatyale abaqokelelwayo. Kwaye nantsi inxalenye ekhangayo: Ukuba ukhangele i-index, i-spikes yo-greed enye yeengxowa zesaba kunye nokuchaneka kwe-rollercoaster, kunye nokulungelelanisa phakathi.
Kulolu hlobo ukususela ukususela ephakathi kuka-2014 ukuya kwehlobo 2017, unokubala izikhathi ezili-10 xa isalathisi sithintela phezulu kwi-60 okanye ngasentla, kuphela ukuhlawulela ngaphantsi kwe-10 (kwisiqingatha esilandelayo se-2015). Ngokugqithisileyo, enye isalathiso apho isalathisi sihleli malunga ne-50 ixesha elide liye lo nyaka, ngokumalunga nekota yesibini.
Akunjalo ukuba iBuffett isebenzisa i-FGI, kodwa nantsi indlela enokuyenza ngayo, kunye nendlela onokuyenza ngayo: Khawukhangele ukuba iimeko ezinamandla zokwesaba kwaye xa zibetha, gcina iliso kwiinkampani ezingabalulekanga. Ngaloo ndlela, ungazifumanisa amathuba athile okufihliweyo otyalo-mali obuninzi, ngaphandle kokuba uhlale nesitokethi ukukhawuleza ixesha elide.
Nangona uloyiko kunye nekratshi Inkcazo inokuvakala njengemetric yamnandi, kukho imeko enamandla yokwenzela ukufaneleka kwayo. Cinga, umzekelo, uphando olumnandi (kwaye mhlawumbi lubekwe) oluye lwaya kwiziseko zentsimi echaphazelekayo eyaziwa ngokuba yimali yokuziphatha. Umzekelo: Ezinye izazinzulu ziye zafunda ukuba amaqabane amaninzi agxininisa ibha inethemba lokufumana umvuzo: Ewe, ukutshintsha okutsha kwinqanaba le-rat.
Ngo-1979, xa iinguqu zengqondo yokuziphatha zenzeke ngo-1979, xa iingcali zeengqondo uDaniel Kahneman kunye no-Amos Tversky zakha "inkolelo yecala," ichaza indlela umntu ofanayo angaba yingozi ngayo .
Iingcamango zabo, ngendlela, zancedisa inkqubo yokwenza izigqibo eziboniswa kwi-movie ethi "Moneyball," ibali lokwenyaniso elisekelwe ekwakheni kabusha iqela lase-Oakland A's baseball.
Ngokucacileyo, uloyiko kunye nokrakra kunokuqhuba utshalomali oluninzi kunokuba ungacinga-ubuncinane xa singabanjwa kuloo mvakalelo.
Xa kuziwa kutyalo-mali, abantu benza izigqibo ezimbini. Indlela yokuqala isekelwe kwimimiselo yeemathematika kunye neenkcukacha, ezifana nomlinganiselo wexabiso-kuya-umvuzo (obonisa ukuba isitokisi senkampani iphezulu, ayinakulinganiswa okanye ixabiso elifanelekileyo). Okanye, ungasebenzisa ngeemvakalelo zesisu, indlela abadlali be-poker benza ngayo.
Ngokuqhelekileyo zizo zombini iindlela ezizodwa. Mhlawumbi uphando nge-SUV ukuthenga ngokufunda amaxabiso amanani, ukusebenza kunye nokulinganisa kwiiNgxelo zabaThengi. Emva koko ufumene enye enezihlalo ezifudumeleyo, kwaye uyatshitshiswa ngaphandle kwekhoksi yakho.
Uhlobo olufanayo lwesigqibo lisebenza kwiimpahla, kunye nezizathu zokubangela ukuba abantu bathenge. Kukho nezinye iingcaphephe zengqondo zokuziphatha, ukusuka ekulahlekeleni ukulahlekelwa kwintsikelelo enomdla wothando lomzala onokudala, onokuthi.
Ngokudabukisayo, ukwesaba nokuhaha okuninzi kubangelwa ukungabikho kocwangciso kunye nemfundo. Kwaye ngaloo ndlela, utyalo-mali alukho konke okuhlukileyo kwezinye iindlela zokuphila. Ngendlela yokufanisa, kwindawo ethile phakathi kokugaya nokuzilamba, ukutya ukutya kunye nokunyamezela, uxhomekeke ngolwazi olulonwabo olusisiseko ngemigaqo yokutya ephilileyo efunyenwe kwaye iqhutywe ngexesha lokuphila.
Konke oku kukukhumbuza ukuba Ingxelo yezoyiko kunye neNkcazo ingenakongezwa ngezinye izinto ezintlanu: kungekhona nje umona, kodwa ukratshi, ukukrakra, ukukhanukela, ukukrakra kunye nomona.
Ejongene nezono ezisixhenxe ezibulalayo, nokuba kunjalo. Unako ukugcina umsindo xa utyalo-mali lwakho luya kuhamba-kwaye i-sloth xa ihamba.