Ukusuka kwezoqoqosho ukuya kwiengozi zezopolitiko kunye nento yonke phakathi
Kule nqaku, siza kujonga indlela yokwenza ngokukhawuleza nangokulula nokuhlalutya umngcipheko welizwe.
Umngcipheko weHlabathi
Ukulinganisa umngcipheko welizwe kunokuba ngumsebenzi onzima. Ukususela kwimithetho yerhafu ukuya kutsho kwezopolitiko, abatyali-mali kufuneka bathathe amakhulu, ukuba kungabikho amawaka, malunga nemibandela eyahlukileyo. Ngokomzekelo, ukubonakala okubonakalayo njengokunyuka kwezinga lomdla kungalimaza okanye kukunceda amashishini ehlabathi kunye nemakethe yemasheya. Kodwa kwanamazwi nje kuphela avela kwipolitiki ovelele ekuthandeni kwizicwangciso ezizayo unokuba nefuthe elikhulu. Uninzi luxhomekeke kwizinto ezilindelekileyo zeemarike phambi kokuhamba okanye ukunyakaza.
Umngcipheko welizwe ungasahlukana ngamaqela amabini:
- Ingozi Yezomnotho : Ingozi ehambelana nemeko yezemali yelizwe kunye nokukwazi ukubuyisela amatyala akhe . Ngokomzekelo, ilizwe elinomlinganiselo omkhulu wetyala-kuya ku-GDP lingenakho ukuphakamisa imali ngokulula ukuzixhasa, okwenza uqoqosho lwazo lwasekhaya lusengozini.
- Ingozi yezobupolitika : Ingozi ehambelana nezopolitiko zelizwe kunye nempembelelo yezigqibo zabo kwezotyalo-mali. Ngokomzekelo, oopolitiki abanomdla abaxhasa inkxaso-mthetho bangabangela umngcipheko kubatyalomali kwiindawo ezithile zobucwangciso.
Kwezinye iimeko, ingozi yezoqoqosho kunye nezopolitiko inokungena. Uqoqosho lwaseArgentina phantsi kolawulo lwamaPeronist yangumzekelo omhle. Kwimeko apho, oopolitiki abanobudemokhrasi baqalisa iinkqubo ezonakalisa uqoqosho, njengemali-mali kunye nenkcitho evela kumaziko angaphandle.
Ukuhlalutya ingozi yelizwe
Kukho iindlela ezahlukeneyo zokuhlalutya umngcipheko welizwe.
Ukusuka kwii- beta coefficients ukuya kumaxabiso okulawula , abatyali-mali banenombolo yezixhobo ezahlukileyo. Abatyalomali belizwe lonke kufuneka basebenzise ukuhlanganiswa kwezi ndlela ukuze baqinisekise ingozi yelizwe, kunye nomngcipheko ophathelene naliphi na utyalo-mali okanye ukhuseleko lwamazwe ngamazwe.
Izindlela ezisetyenziselwa ukuhlola umngcipheko welizwe zingabalwa ngamaqela amabini:
- Uhlalutyo olulinganisiweyo : Ukusetyenziswa kweemilinganiselo kunye neenkcukacha zokubaluleka ukubeka umngcipheko, njengomlinganiselo we-debt-to-GDP okanye i-coafficient ye-beta ye-MSCI kwilizwe elinikeziweyo. Abatyalomali bamazwe ngamazwe banokufumana le ngcaciso kwiingxelo ezivela kwii-arhente zorhafu, amaphephancwadi afana ne-Economist, kunye nemithombo eyahlukeneyo ye-inthanethi njenge-Wikipedia.
- Uhlalutyo olulungileyo : Ukusetyenziswa kohlalutyo oluzimeleyo ukujonga umngcipheko, njengokuphula iindaba / imibono yezopolitiko okanye iindlebe zokuthengisa. Abatyalomali bamazwe ngamazwe banokufumana le nkcazelo kwimpapasho yemali njengo-Economist kunye ne-Wall Street Journal, kunye nokuphanda kwi-aggregators yeendaba zamazwe ngamazwe njenge-Google News.
Kodwa, indlela eqhelekileyo yokuba abatyali-mali bavavanya ingozi yelizwe kungenxa yokulinganisa. Ngokuthatha ezi zinto zilandelelanisa kunye nezobuqu, ii-arhente zikhupha izilinganiso zekhredithi kwilizwe ngalinye kwaye banike abatyali-mali indlela elula yokuhlalutya ingozi yelizwe.
Ezi zintathu zee-arhente zokujonga i-arhente ze-Standard & Poor's, IiNkonzo ze-Moody's Investor, kunye ne-Ratings Ratings.
Uluhlu lokuHlola iHlabathi kunye namanye amacebiso
Abatyalomali bamazwe ngamazwe banokumisela umngcipheko welizwe ngokusebenzisa le nqubo elula ezintathu:
- Hlola ukulinganisa kweNdumiso : Khangela ukulinganisa kwelizwe eliphakamileyo elikhishwe yi-S & P, i-Moody's ne-Fitch ukuze ukhangele uluhlu lwesiseko kwizinga lomngcipheko welizwe.
- Funda iNtsholongwane : Khangela kwi-Google News okanye ezinye iindibano zeendaba zamazwe ngamazwe naluphi na ulwazi lwezoqoqosho olujikeleze ilizwe njengehlobo lophando olulinganiselayo, okanye ukhangele imithombo yolwazi yoluntu njenge-International Monetary Fund okanye iBhanki yehlabathi.
- Hlola ingozi ye-Asset : Misela umngcipheko othe utyalo-mali ngokubhekisisa izinto ezinomlinganiselo, ezifana ne-beta coefficient-i-coafficient ephezulu ye-beta ifana nomngcipheko omkhulu.
Kodwa, ngenxa yokuba ilizwe eliyingozi alitsho ukuba abatyali-mali bathobele. Ngamanye amaxesha ukwanda komngcipheko kufana neentlawulo eziphezulu. Ngokomzekelo, ilizwe elijongene nokulungiswa koqoqosho lingaba lukhuseleko ngoku, kodwa ikusasa layo elide linokugqithisa ngenxa yoko. Abatyalomali bamazwe ngamazwe banako ukufaka ingozi kwi-potifoliyo eyahlukeneyo ukwenzela ukuphucula ukubuyiswa kwembuyekezo.
Nazi izicwangciso ezimbalwa zokugcina ingqalelo xa ucinga utyalo-mali:
- Hlalani Nokuhlengahlengiswa : Iipotifoliyo ezahlukahlukeneyo zinokunceda ukunciphisa imiphumo yokhuseleko oluwela ngokukhawuleza. Zama kwaye unciphise naluphi na ukhuseleko oluvela kwi-accounting malunga ne-5% yexabiso lepottoliyo.
- I-Hedge Iibhendi Zakho : Ezinye izicwangciso, ezifana nokubhalwa kweefowuni okanye ukuthenga isalathisi ezikhethiweyo, zinokukunceda uhlaselo lweentengiso. Abatyalomali abaphezulu bangathanda ukuqwalasela ezi zikhetho.
- Jonga imeko : Hlalani nigcine isohlwayiso lwakho mali. Izinto ziyakushintsha ngokukhawuleza kwiimarike zamazwe ngamazwe-ngakumbi ingozi - ke qiniseka ukuba ubona amafu amnyama ngaphambi kokuba isiqhwithi sihlasele.
Ngaphantsi
Abatyalomali bamazwe ngamazwe kufuneka baqaphele izinto ezininzi ezinobungozi ezichaphazela utyalo-mali lwabo, kubandakanywa nemingcipheko ethile yezoqoqosho kunye nezopolitiko. Ngokutshekisha ukulinganiswa komlawuli kunye nokwenza ngokukhawuleza, banokuqinisekisa ukuba iphothifoliyo yabo ayibonakaliswa ngokugqithiseleyo.