Ingeniso
Urhulumente wesigqeba ufumene i-2.524 trillion yeerhafu kwimali engenayo, ngaphantsi kwe-2.662 trillion ehlawulwa kwi-budget ye-FY 2008. Iingeniso zentlawulo azizange zijongene nomphumo werhafu encinci yerhafu . Uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali luchanekileyo lucinga ukuba kuqhutywe i- EGTRRA kunye ne- JGTRRA zentlawulo zentlawulo. Ezi ngokwenene, zandiswe yiNgqungquthela ngo-2010.
Imibuzo emithathu kufuneka iphendulwe ukuba iqinisekise ukuba ingeniso yeengeniso ingenangqiqo:
1. Ngaba i-GDP Forecasts Ingqiqo? I-Ofisi yoLawulo kunye neBhajethi ukubikezela uqoqosho, njengoko kulinganiswa nokukhula konyaka kwimveliso emveliso engaphantsi , kuya kunyuka malunga nama-3 ekhulwini ngonyaka ukususela ngo-2007-2012. Le nto yayinethemba elincinane kuneHhovisi leNgqungquthela ye - Congressional (iipesenti ezi-2.8), okanye i-Consensus yeBlue Chip (iipesenti ezi-2.9). Kodwa i-OMB yaqala ngesiseko esiphezulu. Kuqikelele ukukhula kwe-GDP ka-2007 kwi-2.7 ekhulwini, iphakamileyo ngaphaya kwamaxabiso e-CBO (2.3 ekhulwini) kunye ne-Blue Chip Consensus (2.4 ekhulwini).
Nangona kunjalo, ukuhlaziywa kwe-OMB kwakungenangqiqo, kuba iBhunga loHlolo loQoqosho liqikelele ukukhula kwe-G4 ngonyaka we-2006 kwi-P4 kwi-3,4 ekhulwini kunye no-2005 ukukhula kweGDP kuma-3.5 ekhulwini. (Umthombo: OMB Uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwe-2008, iiShedyuli zeSishwankathelo , iThebhile S-9.
2. Ingeniso yeeNgeniso zeNgeniso? Nangona ukugcinwa kwemali yengeniso kwi-GDP ye-18.3 ye-GDP kubonakala kunengqiqo, ukubunjwa kweso sabelo semali kwatshintsha ngaphezulu komthwalo werhafu kubantu kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo.
Ngo-FY 2006, iipesenti ezingama-43 zengeniso zivela kubahlawuli berhafu ngabanye, ngelixa iipesenti ezingama-22 zivela kwiirhafu zenkampani, irhafu yentlawulo, kunye nezinto ezifana. Ngo- FY 2012 , i-OMB yaxela ukuba umthwalo womrhumo womntu ngamnye ukhule ukuya kuma-49 ekhulwini kwengeniso, kunye neepesenti ezingama-16 ukusuka kwerhafu yenkampani kunye neentlawulo.
Olu tshintsho luyenzeka nangona uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lucinga ukuba uMthetho woKhuseleko loQoqosho kunye noMthetho wokuXhobisa iiRhafu woNyaka ka-2001 (i- EGTRRA ) kunye noMthetho woPhuhliso lweMisebenzi kunye noMthetho wokuXhaswa koNcedo lokuThunywa koNyaka ka-2003 ( JGTRRA ) uya kuhlala. Xa kudlulile, ulawulo luthembisa ukuba le ntlawulo yeenqwelo-mali iyakuthi "ilanga," okanye iphelile ngowama-2010. Nangona kunjalo, kunzima kubapolitiki ukubuyisela irhafu ephezulu emva kokunciphisa sele kuqhutyelwe iminyaka eyi-10, kwaze kwazi ukuba ukulahlekelwa kwemali ehlawulwayo kuya kuba malunga ne $ 1.3 trillion. Njengoko kwavela, kwakungenakwenzeka ukwenza kunyaka lonyulo, njengoko ukutyunjwa kwentlawulo yaseBush kwaba yi- Obama tax tax
I-OMB ayizange ithathe utshintsho kwiNkcitho encinci yerhafu . I-AMT yadalwa ngowama-1969 ukuqinisekisa ukuba abahlawuli berhafu abacebileyo abazange baphephe iirhafu ngeentambo. Ngelishwa, kwakungekho ukulungiswa kwexabiso lentengo ekwakhiwe kuyo, ngoko ngonyaka i-AMT isebenza kwiintsapho ezininzi eziye zinobutyebi ngo-1969.
Esikhundleni sokuphinda kubhale kwakhona umthetho, abameli bezomthetho banikezela ukukhululwa kulo nyaka kuphela. Ngenxa yoko, ingeniso yerhafu yanyuswa ngaphezu kwe-FY 2009-2012 malunga neebhiliyoni ezingama-60 ngonyaka.
3. Ingaba uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali luye lwahlawula ingxaki? Nangona uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali luqikelele uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali olulinganisiweyo ngo-2012, oku akuthethi ukubuyisela kwimpilo yezemali. Okokuqala, kubalwa iirisithi zokufumana irhafu kwi-AMT, xa ngokwenene ngonyaka ukukhululwa kwexeshana kwenziwa. Ngako ke, uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali olwenziwe ngaphezu kweebhiliyoni ezingama-60 ngonyaka ... malunga nemali ye-surplus ebizwa ngo-2012.
Okwesibini, iboleke imali kwiSondlo soLuntu. Iintlawulo ezidibeneyo, zomntu kunye nezenkampani zenza iipesenti ezingama-65 zengeniso. Iipesenti ezingama-35 eziseleyo zivela kwiNtlalontle yeNtlalo kunye neMirare yerhafu yokuhlawula. Le mali inyuke ukusuka kwiiRandi ezingama-837 zeebhiliyoni ngo-FY 2006 ukuya kwi-$ 1,138 yezigidigidi ze-FY 2012.
Kuloo, enye kuphela yesine yayisetyenziselwa ukuhlawula inzuzo kumatyala asele. Uninzi lwawo lwabo "lubolewe" ukuhlawula iindleko ze-FY 2008. Ngaloo nyaka, i-$ 674 billion ibolekwe. Ngubani oza kuwuhlawula? Abantwana bethu nabazukulu.
Ngomhla we-FY 2017, ukukhuselwa kweNtlalo kulindeleke ukuba kuqokelele ngaphezulu kwerhafu yengeniso kunokuba ihlawulele kwiintlawulo. Kungenxa yokuba kunabasebenzi abayi-3.3 kubo bonke abaxhamliweyo kwaye izinga lokurhafu li-12.4%. Nangona imali eyimali engenayo ifakwa kwi-fund ye-trust, ihlawulwe ngokukhawuleza yi-Treasury yase-US ukuyisebenzisa kwezinye iinkqubo. Yiyo ndlela, ngo-2008, i-$ 674 yezigidigidi ezifunyenweyo "yaboleka" kwi- Social Security fund . Iintlawulo zerhafu zenzelwe ukuba zizonke i-$ 835 zeebhiliyoni ngonyaka ka-2012. Le yimali engayi kuba khona ukuhlawula izibonelelo zomhlala-phantsi kwi-Baby Boomers, abaqala ukufaneleka ngo-2007.
Ngaloo ndlela, olu bhajethi lufikelele "uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali" ngokuhlehliswa kweengxaki ezibalulekileyo zengeniso: ukulungiswa kwe-AMT, kunye nokubonelela ngeenkonzo zoKhuselo loLuntu.
Ukuchitha
Urhulumente wephondo uchithe imali engama-2.983 trillion ngo-2008, ngaphezu kohlahlo lwabiwo lwe-2.902 trillion.
Ininzi yeengxoxo zebhajethi kwiCongress yayingeniso lokuchithwa kwengqiqo , leyo yinxalenye yoluhlahlo lwabiwo-mali oluxoxisana phakathi kukaMongameli kunye neNkomfa minyaka yonke njengenxalenye yenkqubo yohlahlo lwabiwo - mali . Uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali oluMiselweyo luqikelelo lokuxhaswa kweZenzo ezichaza ukuKhuseleko loLuntu, iiMediare kunye nezinye iinkqubo zentlalo.
Ukuchitha imali ngokucacileyo: Inkcitho epheleleyo yokuchithwa kwemali ngo-FY 2008 yayiyimali eyi-1.12 trillion, eyi-38% yemali yokusetyenziswa kwebhajethi. Inkcitho yezempi yayiyinxalenye enkulu, kwi-$ 792.9 yezigidigidi. Kwaquka:
- Uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lweSebe loKhuseleko lwama-479.0 billion.
- Inkxaso eyongezelelweyo yeMfazwe esebhubeni se-186.9 billion. Eziquka i-$ 142 yezigidigidi zeMfazwe e-Iraq .
- Ii-Agencies ezixhasa umkhosi zichithe i-$ 127 billion. Ezi ziquka ukuKhuselwa koLuntu (i-$ 34.9 billion), ulawulo lwezilwanyana (i-$ 43.6 billion), iSebe likaRhulumente (i-$ 32.9 billion), i-FBI (i-$ 6.5 billion) kunye ne-National Nuclear Security Administration (i-$ 9.1 billion). (Umthombo: I-OMB Iifomati eziFomatiweyo, FY 2008 Ithebhileji yeBhajethi ye-S-2, FY 2009 Ithebhile yoHlahlo lwabiwo-S-3 )
Eli nqanaba lemali-mali liphakamisa le mibuzo ilandelayo:
- Ngaba ama-$ 500- $ 700 billion anele ngokwaneleyo ukufezekisa iinjongo zesizwe kwiMfazwe esebhusweni?
- Ngaba i-US ingakwazi ukuhlawula iindleko, inikwe ibhajethi eqikelelweyo yebhajethi malunga ne-$ 250 yezigidi ngonyaka?
- Ingaba ngaba ngokwenene isizwe sethu siphumelele kakhulu kwiimali ezincinci zokuqonda? Ingxenye engeyiyo yempi yokuchithwa kweengqiqo eqikelelwe ukuba iyancipha kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo, eya kuba nefuthe elikhulu kwiinqununu ezithile zabantu base-US.
Eminye yayingenayo imali yokuphepha. Amasebe amakhulu kunazo zonke iiNkonzo zezeMpilo kunye noLuntu (i-$ 71.9 billion), iMfundo (i-$ 57.2 yezigidigidi), ulawulo lwezilwanyana ($ 39.4 billion) kunye neSebe likaRhulumente (i-$ 32.9 billion). (Umthombo: i-OMB, i-FY 2009, i-TYS, iThebhile S-3, eyenziwe nge-FY 2008.
Ukunyanzeleka. Ukusetyenziswa kwemvume , kwi-1.61 trillion kwi-FY 2008, yayingaphaya kwesigamu se-Budget Federal yase-US. Iiprogram ezininzi zokusetyenziswa kwempahla ziyiNtlalo yoKhuselo kunye neMedare, njengendlela elandelayo:
- Ukhuseleko lwezeNtlalo - $ 612 billion
- I-Medicare - i-$ 386 yezigidigidi
- Uxilongo - $ 201 billion
- Zonke ezinye iinkqubo ezinyanzelisiweyo zaziyi-411 billion zeebhiliyoni. Ezi zibandakanya izitampu zokutya, ukuXhotyiswa kwabasebenzi, ukuNgcwaba kwabantwana, iiKredredithi zeNtlawulo zabantwana, ukuKhuselwa koKhubazekileyo, iiNgxowa-mali zabafundi, kunye neenkqubo zokuhlala / zokukhubazeka. (Umthombo: I-OMB uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali 2010, iifomati ezifingqiweyo , iThebhile S-4. I-OMB FY 2008, iBhajethi yeSishwankathelo Itheyibhile S-5 Iziphakamiso ezigunyazisiweyo zeenkcukacha).
Ngaba i-FY ye-Budget yoMgaqo-mali efunekayo ka-2008 iya kuthinteka njani kwi-Economy?
Kuhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwe-FY 2008, iindleko ezifunekayo zenzelwe ukunyuka kwi $ 1.9 trillion, okanye i-10.5% ye-GDP. Ingeniso yengeniso yerhafu yenzelwe ukungena kwi-6.5% ye-GDP. Isiphumo kukuba le mibopheleleko engabikho imali idibanisa kwi- budget . Umzekelo, ngo-FY 2006 Ukhuseleko lwezeNtlalo lulethwe nge-$ 608 yezigidigidi kwi-"budget-off", imali eyongezelelweyo evela kwiirhafu zerhafu. Kodwa ezinye iinkqubo ezigunyazisiweyo zineendleko ezigqithise kakhulu le mali "eyongezelelweyo", eyenza i-minimalty of $ 574 billion Ukusetyenziswa kwemali-mali eyimfuneko kuphela.
Iimpembelelo zexesha elifutshane - Ngo-2012, impembelelo yeziphakamiso zokulondoloza uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali azinyanzelwanga, kuba igawula kuphela ukuchitha i-3 ekhulwini. Nangona uninzi lweenkcazo kunye neengxoxo ziya kuzinikezelwa kwezi zicwangciso, kwaye ubomi obuninzi buya kuthinteka sisiphumo, iziphakamiso aziyi kuchaphazela uqoqosho ngenye indlela okanye enye ngexesha elifutshane.
Iimpembelelo zexesha elide-ixesha elide, nangona kunjalo, igalelo lokungenzi nto malunga nalezi zigunyaziso ezingenakubalwa ziza kuba zikhulu. Umntwana wokuqala uBommer waphenduka ngamashumi angama-62 ngo-2007 waza waba nemfanelo yokuthatha umhlala-phantsi kwiintlawulo zeNtlalo.
FY 2008 Ulwaphulo
I-FY yenani lika-2008 le-federal deficit laliyi-$ 459 yezigidigidi. Uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lubalisela uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali olulinganisiweyo ngo-2012.