Kutheni iinqwelo zengqolowa ezingavumelekanga zingavamile? Kwinqanaba eliqhelekileyo lomvuno, iinqununu zexesha elifutshane zivelisa ngaphantsi kwezibhondi zexesha elide.
Kungenxa yokuba abatyali-zimali balindele ukubuya okuphantsi xa imali yabo ibophelelwe ixesha elifutshane. Bafuna isivuno esiphezulu sokuba banikezele ngokuphindaphindiweyo kwi-investment yesikhathi eside.
Yiyiphi indlela yokuThengiswa kweeNgcaciso ezithengiswayo
I-curve isivuno esivumelekileyo kuthetha ukuba abatyali-mali abanokuzithemba kakhulu kwezoqoqosho. Bakhetha ukuthenga inqaku leNondyebo ye-10 kunye nokubopha imali yabo iminyaka elishumi nangona bafumana isivuno esisezantsi. Oku kungenzi nto ingqiqo. Abatyalomali ngokulindelekileyo babuyela ukubuyela okuphezulu kwixesha elide lotyalomali.
I-curve isivinyiweyo yokuvelisa kuthetha abatyali-mali bakholelwa ukuba baya kwenza ngaphezulu ngokubambelela kwisibophelelo sexesha elide kunokuba bathenge i-bill yexesha elifutshane. Kungenxa yokuba bafanele bajike kwaye bavuselele imali leyo kwenye ibhilikhwe. Ukuba bakholelwa ukuba ukuhlaliswa kwemali kuza, balindele ukuba ixabiso lee-short-term bills liza kutshintsha ixesha elithile kunyaka ozayo. Kungenxa yokuba i-Federal Reserve idla ngokunciphisa izinga lokuxhaswa kwemali xa ukukhula koqoqosho kuphuculwa.
Isibhengezo seNondyebo yexeshana esifutshane sibonisa ukulinganisa isantya semali.
Ngoko kutheni i-curve isivuno iguqula? Njengoko abatyali-mali batshabalalisa kwiibhonari zexesha elide, uvuno kulawo mabhonkco aphantsi. Kungenxa yokuba zifunwa , ngoko abayidingi njengesivuno esiphezulu sokutsala abatyala-mali. Imfuno yee-bills zexesha elifutshane zeNondyebo ziwa, ngoko kufuneka zihlawule isivuno esiphezulu ukutsala abatyale-mali.
Ekugqibeleni, isivuno kwiimali ezifutshane zexesha eliphakamileyo liphakama ngaphezu kwesivuno kwiibhondi zexesha elide, kunye neengcambu zokuvuna izivuno.
Ngethuba lokukhula okuqhelekileyo, isivuno kwisibhondi seminyaka engama-30 siya kuba ngamathathu aphezulu ngaphezu kweenyanga ezintathu. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba abatyali-mali bakholelwa ukuba uqoqosho luya kuthoba kwiminyaka emibini ezayo, kwaye emva koko lukhawuleze kwakhona kwiminyaka eyi-10-20, banokukhetha ukubopha imali yabo kude kube ngoko, kunokuba bafanele bavuselele ngokukhawuleza kakhulu amazinga.
Xa iNtloko yokuThuthukiswa kweNgcaciso engaphenduliweyo yagqitywa ngokutsha
I- Nondyebo ivelise ikhefu eyachithwa ngaphambi kokugqithiselwa kuka-2000, 1991, no-1981. I-curve isivuno saxela kwakhona ingxaki yezimali ka - 2008 kwiminyaka emibini ngaphambili. I-inversion yokuqala yenzeke ngoDisemba 22, 2005. I-Fed, eyayikhathazekile ngebhola ye- asethi kwikharityhulam yezindlu, yayikhulisa isantya semali esondliwe ukususela ngoJuni 2004. NgoDisemba, bekuyi-4.25 ekhulwini.
Oko kwanyusa isivuno kwi-bill yeminyaka emibili ye-Nondyebo ukuya kuma-4.40 ekhulwini. Kodwa isivuno kwiNqaku leNondyebo leMinyaka elixhenxe asizange likhule ngokukhawuleza, libethe kuphela i-4.39 ekhulwini. Oku kuthetha ukuba abatyali-mali babezimisele ukuvuma ukubuyiswa okuphantsi kokuboleka imali yabo iminyaka eyisixhenxe kuneminyaka emibili. Yayiyinto yokuqala yokuguquka.
NgoDisemba 30, ukungafani kwakubi kakhulu.
Isimali-mali seminyaka emibili sabuyisela i-4.41 pesenti, kodwa i-note year year-year yield fell to 4.36 percent. Isivuno senqaku leNondyebo elishumi elineminyaka eli-10 liye lafikelela kuma-4.39 ekhulwini, ngaphantsi kwesivuno sebhilidi yeminyaka emibini.
Inyanga kamva (ngoJanuwari 31, 2006), i-Fed yayiphakamise isantya semali esondliwe. Umrhumo weminyaka emibili ye-bhilikhi yavuka kuma-4.54 ekhulwini. Kodwa loo nto yayingaphezulu kwesivuno seminyaka esixhenxe se-4.49 ekhulwini. Nangona kunjalo, i-Fed yaqhubeka ikhulisa amazinga, ixabela ama-5.25 ekhulwini ngoJuni 2006. Ukuze uthole iinkcukacha, khangela iMbali yeMali yeMali .
Ngomhla ka-Julayi 17, 2006, ukuguqulwa kwandipha kwakhona xa inqaku le-10 leminyaka likhupha i-5.07 yeepesenti, ngaphantsi kweenyanga ezi-ntlawulo zeenyanga ezi-5.11. Oku kuboniswe ukuba abatyali-mali babecinga ukuba iFed yayihamba ngendlela engafanelekanga. Ukufumana okungakumbi, jonga iNkqubela yeNgxowa-mali ye-Subprime: Impembelelo kunye nexesha .
| Umhla | Funds Fund | 3-Mo | 2-Yr | 7-Yr | 10-Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NgoDisemba 22, 2005 | 4.25 | 3.98 | 4.40 | 4.39 | 4.44 |
| NgoDisemba 30, 2005 | 4.25 | 4.09 | 4.41 | 4.36 | 4.39 |
| Jan. 31, 2006 | 4.50 | 4.47 | 4.54 | 4.49 | 4.53 |
| Julayi 17, 2006 | 5.25 | 5.11 | 5.12 | 5.04 | 5.07 |
Ngelishwa, i-Fed ayizange ilandele isilumkiso. Bacinga ukuba nje ixesha elide ixesha elide livunwa liza kubonelela ngokwaneleyo uqoqosho ekuthintela ukunyuka kwemali. Babengafanelekanga.
I-curve yesivuno yahlala ingagqityiwe kude kube ngoJuni 2007. Kulo lonke ihlobo, i-flip-floled back and out, phakathi kwe-curve ye-yield and flat. NgoSeptemba 2007, iFed yagqitywa. Yanciphisa isantya semali esondliwe kuma-4.75 ekhulwini. Kwakuyi-1/2 kwinqanaba, okwakunokwehla okukhulu. I-Fed yenzelwe ukuthumela isigxina esinamandla kwiimarike.
I-Fed yaqhubeka yokunciphisa isantya ngokuphindwe kabini kwaze kwaba yilapho iphelile ngo-2008. I-curve isivuno ayizange ishintshwe, kodwa yayisemva kwexesha. Uqoqosho luye lwaqala ukungena embi kakhulu ngenxa yokuxhomekeka okukhulu . Ukufumana okungakumbi ngexesha elichanekileyo lokutyunjwa, khangela iNani leMali yeFund Fed . ILizwi kwizilumko - ungalokothi uzibekele ikhefu elivunayo.