Kutheni i-Nondyebo ivelisa ukuwa xa kuphakama isicelo
Indlela Abasebenza ngayo
Iingxowa-mali zithengiswa ngokunikezelwa kunye neemfuno.
Iibhondi zisekuqaleni, zithengiswa kwintengiso ngeSebe leNondyebo. Ibeka inani elijongene neliso kunye nenzala. Ukuba kukho imfuno emininzi, isibophezelo siya kumthengi ophezulu kwixabiso elingaphezu kwexabiso lobuso . Oku kunciphisa isivuno. Urhulumente uya kuhlawula kuphela inani lexabiso kunye nomyinge wenzala. Imfuno iya kuvuka xa kukho ubunzima bezoqoqosho. Oku kungenxa yokuba abatyali-mali bajonga i-US Treasurys ukuba yindlela ekhuselekileyo yotyalo-mali. Ukuba akukho mfuneko encinane, ababethi baya kubhatala ngaphantsi kwexabiso lobuso. Yandisa ke isivuno.
Ukuveliswa kwexabiso kukutshintsha imihla ngemihla kuba phantse umntu ugcina ixesha elipheleleyo. Esikhundleni saloo nto, bahlaziywa kwiimakethe ezivulekileyo. Ngoko ke, ukuba uva ukuba ixabiso lentengo liyehlile, ngoko uyazi ukuba akukho mfuno eninzi yeebhondi. Iimveliso kufuneka zandise ukuhlawulela imfuno ephantsi.
Indlela abachaphazela ngayo uqoqosho
Njengoko i-Nondyebo ivelisa ukunyuka, ngoko ke inani lentengo kumthengi kunye nemali-mboleko yezoshishino ezinokulingana okufanayo.
Abatyalomali banjengoko ukhuseleko kunye nokubuyiswa okubuyisiweyo kwezibhonkco. Ii-Treasurys zikhuselekileyo kuba ziqinisekiswe nguRhulumente wase-US. Ezinye iibhondi ziyingozi kwaye ngoko kufuneka zibuyise isivuno esiphezulu ukwenzela ukutsala abatyali-mali. Ukuze uhlale ukhuphiswano, inzala yezinye iintlawulo kunye neemali-mboleko zanda njengoko ukuveliswa kwezivuno.
Xa izivuno ziphakama kwiimarike zesekondari, urhulumente kufuneka ahlawule umyinge ophezulu wokutsala abathengi kwiivenkile ezizayo. Ngokuhamba kwexesha, eli xabiso eliphezulu liyakwandisa imfuno ye-Treasury. Yiyo indlela isivuno esiphezulu esinokunyusa ngayo ixabiso le dollar .
Indlela abachaphazela ngayo
Indlela echanekileyo apho u-Nondyebo uvelisa ngayo igalelo labo kwimali -mboleko yezinga eliphezulu . Njengoko izivuno ziphakama, iibhanki kunye nabanye ababolekisi bayaqonda ukuba banokuhlawulisa inzala engaphezulu yemali ekhredithi yexesha elifanayo. Imali -mali ye-10 yeminyaka-mali ithintela kwiminyaka eyi-15 yokuthenga imali, ngelixa umvuno weminyaka engama-30 uchaphazela iimali zokubolekwa kweminyaka engama-30. Iirhafu zenzalo ephakamileyo zenza izindlu zingabizi kakuhle, ngaloo ndlela ziphazamise imarike yezindlu. Kuthetha ukuba kufuneka uthenge indlu encinane, engabizi kakhulu. Oku kunganciphisa ukukhula kweMveliso yaseKhaya kaZwelonke .
Ngaba uyazi ukuba ungasebenzisa izivuno ukuqikelela ikusasa? Kunokwenzeka ukuba uyazi malunga nekhava lomvuno . Ngokuqhelekileyo, ixesha elide kwiNondyebo, iphakamileyo isivuno. Abatyalomali badinga ukubuya okuphezulu ukugcina imali yabo ibophelelwe ixesha elide. Ukuphakama isivuno seminyaka eyi-10 okanye isibophelelo seminyaka engama-30, abathengisi abathembekileyo malunga nokuqoqosho. Esi sivuno sesivuno esivamile.
Ukuba izivuno kwiibhondi zexesha elide ziphantsi xa ziqhathaniswa neenkcukacha zangexesha elifutshane, abatshali-mali abaqinisekanga ngoqoqosho. Baya kuba bekulungele ukushiya imali yabo eboshwe ukuze bahlale bekhuselekile. Xa isivuno sexesha elide sihlahla ngaphantsi kwezivuno zexesha elifutshane, uya kuba ne -curve isivinini . Idla ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukulandelelana.
Ngokomzekelo, nasi isivuno somvuno ngoDisemba 31, 2014:
| Isikhathi sokukhula | Yima kancinci |
|---|---|
| Iinyanga ezi-3 zenyanga | 0.04 |
| Inqaku leminyaka eli-1 | 0.25 |
| Inqaku le minyaka eli-10 | 2.17 |
| Ibhondi yeminyaka engama-30 | 2.75 |
Le ngongoma yokuvelisa ephezulu. Kubonisa ukuba abatyali-mali bafuna ukubuyiswa okuphezulu kwi-bond-iminyaka engama-30 kune-bill-months-3. Abatyalomali bathemba ithemba ngoqoqosho. Bengafuni ukubopha imali yabo iminyaka eyi-10 okanye engama-30. (Umthombo: UNondyebo waseMelika, iiRhafu zeeNtloko zoThengiselo lweNgcaciso yeNondye)
I-curve yesivuno ephawulwe ngo-2016. NgoJulayi 1, ngo-2016, bekuyi:
| Isikhathi sokukhula | Yima kancinci |
|---|---|
| Iinyanga ezi-3 zenyanga | 0.28 |
| Inqaku leminyaka eli-1 | 0.45 |
| Inqaku le minyaka eli-10 | 1.46 |
| Ibhondi yeminyaka engama-30 | 2.24 |
Oku kubonisa ukuba abatyali-mali babenalo ithemba elincinane ngokukhula kwexesha elide. Babefuna isivuno esincinci sokubopha imali yabo ixesha elide.
Outlook
IiRhafu zaqala ukunyuka ngo-2017 kwaye ziya kuqhubeka zenza njalo ngo-2018. I-Fed yaqala ukuphakamisa izinga lokuxhaswa kweemali ukusuka ngomhla kaDisemba 2015. Njengoko abatyali-mali bathola isivuno esongezelelweyo kwiimali zangexesha elifutshane, baya kulindela ukubuya okungcono kumanqaku exesha elide. . Ngaphezulu, jonga nini iRhafu yeNzala iya kuphakama?
Kwixesha eliphakathi, kukho iingcinezelo eziqhubekayo zokugcina izivuno eziphantsi kakhulu. Ukungaqiniseki koqoqosho kwiYurophu yaseYurophu kugcina abaotyalo-mali bathenga i-Treasury ekhuselekileyo yase-US. Abatyalomali basemzini, iChina , iJapan kunye namazwe akhiqiza ioli ngokukodwa, badinga iidola ukugcina uqoqosho lwabo lusebenza. Indlela efanelekileyo yokuqokelela idola ngokuthenga iimveliso zeNondyebo. Ukuthandwa kwe-Treasury ye-US kuye kwagcina isivuno esingaphantsi kwama-6 ekhulwini kwiiminyaka ezisixhenxe zokugqibela. Ngaphezulu, khangela iindlela ezintathu zokulinganisa ixabiso leDola .
Kwixesha elide, izinto ezine ziza kwenza iimveliso zeNondyebo zixhaphake ngaphantsi kweminyaka engama-20 ezayo.
- Inkokheli enkulu yase-US ixhalabisa abatyala-mali basemzini, abazibuza ukuba i-US iya kubakhokha kwakhona. Yiyona nkxalabo enkulu kwiChina, umnini-mkhulu kunamanye amazwe we-US Treasury. I-China isoloko isongela ukuthenga i- Treasury encinci , kwintlawulo ephezulu. Ukuba oko kwenzeka, kuya kubonisa ukulahlekelwa yithemba ngamandla oqoqosho lwase-US. Iya kuqhuba ixabiso le dollar ekupheleni.
- Enye indlela i-US inokunciphisa ngayo ityala layo ngokuvumela ixabiso le dollar liyancipha. Xa oorhulumente bamanye amazwe befuna ukuhlawulwa kwexabiso lokubaluleka kweebhondi, kuya kuba nexabiso elincinci kwimali yabo ukuba ixabiso leli dola liphantsi.
- Iimeko ezibangele iChina, iJapane namazwe okuvelisa ioli ukuthenga izibophelelo ze-Treasury ziyashintsha. Njengoko uqoqosho lwazo luqina ngakumbi, basebenzisa iibhanki zabo zangoku kwiingxowa-mali ezikhoyo kwilizwe labo. Akunjalo njengokuthembela kwi-Treasury ye-US kwaye baqala ukuhlukana.
- Ingxenye yokukhangwa kwe-Treasure ye-US kukuba i-denominated dollar, eyimali yehlabathi . Iinqontrakthi ezininzi zeoli zibizwa ngeedola. Uninzi lweentengiselwano zezimali zehlabathi luyenziwa ngeedola. Njengoko ezinye iirhafu, ezifana ne- euro , ziyaziwa kakhulu, ukuthengiselana okumbalwa kuya kwenziwa nge dollar. Oku kuya kugqiba ukunciphisa ixabiso layo kunye ne-US Treasury.
I-Taper Tantrum
Ngo-2013, ukuveliswa kwama-75 kweepesenti phakathi kukaMeyi no-Agasti kuphela. Abatyalomali bathengisa i-Treasurys xa i-Federal Reserve yamemezela ukuba iya kubeka umgaqo-nkqubo wokunciphisa umlinganiselo . Ngomhla kaDisemba waloo nyaka, kwaqala ukunciphisa i-$ 85 yezigidi ngeenyanga ukuthengwa kwe-Treasurys kunye ne -securities-backed securities . I-Fed iyanqunyulwa emva koqoqosho lwamazwe wonke luphuculwe.
Izabelo Zithatha i-Lows 200 iminyaka ngonyaka ka-2012
Ngomhla ka-Juni 1, 2012, isivuno semali esikwi-10-year-year yield hit the day-down of 1.442 pesenti, ephantsi kunawo onke ama-1800. Ivale kancane kancane, kwi-1,47 pesenti. Kwakubangelwa yindiza ekukhuselekeni njengoko abatyali-mali bathumela imali yabo eYurophu kunye nemarike yemasheya. (Umthombo: "Iinkcukacha zeMisebenzi engenamandla zikhupha i-US Yields Lower," i-Reuters, ngoJuni 1, 2012.)
Izivuno zawa ngaphezulu, zafikelela kwirekhodi elitsha ngoJulayi 25. Isivuno kwiphepha leminyaka eli-10 livalwe kwi-1,43 pesenti. Izivuno zaziphantsi kakhulu ngenxa yokungaqiniseki kwezoqoqosho. Abatyalomali bamkele le ntlawulo ephantsi ukuze bahlale bekhuselekile imali. Babenenkxalabo malunga neengxaki zemali ze - euro , i- cliff yezimali kunye nesiphumo se-2012 sokhetho lukaMongameli. (Umthombo: "Ixabiso leKharity Curve Daily", iSebe leNondyebo le-US.)
I-Nondyebo ivelisa iNkcazo yeMali ye-2008
Ngomhla kaJanuwari 2006, i-curve isivuno saqala ukuthoba. Kwakuthetha ukuba abatyali-mali abazange bafune isivuno esiphezulu kwixesha elide. Ngomhla kaJanuwari 3, 2006, isivuno semali yonyaka omnye sasingama-4.38 ekhulwini, isikhulu esiphezulu kunesivuno se-4.37 pesenti kwiminyaka eyi-10. Lo kwakuyi-curve isivinyiweyo esivimbayo. Kwaxela kwangaphambili u-2008. Ngo-Apreli 2000, i -curve isivinini esivumelanisiweyo nayo yaxela ukuba u-2001 uhlawule. Xa abatyali-mali bekholelwa ukuba uqoqosho lugxininisa, bangathanda ukugcina inqaku elide leminyaka eli-10 kunokuba bathenge kwaye bathengise inqaku elifutshane leminyaka elilodwa, elingenza okungaphezu konyaka olandelayo xa kuthethwa inqaku.
Uninzi lwabantu lwaba lukhunjulwe i-curve isivinini esivunyiweyo ngenxa yokuba isivuno kwiimpawu zangexesha elide sasisezantsi. Kwangaphantsi kwama-5 ekhulwini. Oku kuthetha ukuba inzala yemithwalo yempahla yayisemgangathweni kwaye ibonisa ubuninzi bokuthengiswa kobutyebi ekuhlaleni imali, utyalo-mali kunye namashishini amatsha. Iifutshane zexesha elifutshane ziphezulu, ngenxa yemigangatho ye-Federal Reserve . Oku kwachaphazela ukuhlawulwa kweekhredithi zemali ephezulu. Iimali zengxelo yeNondyebo yexesha elide zahlala kwii-4.5 zeepesenti, ukugcina ireyithi yokubambisa inqanaba elimisiweyo elizinzileyo elizinzile kuma-6.5 ekhulwini.