Njani utshintsho oluncinane kwi-Yuan Can Panic Investors
Ngokomzekelo, idoli ukuya kwi-yuan exchange rates yayingu-6.2645 ngoFebruwari 7, 2018. Oko kuthetha ukuba uya kufumana i-6.2 yokugcina i-renminbi ngokutshintshela idoli enye. Xa le nombolo isondela kwi-sixhenxe, ithetha ukuba idola ukuya kwi-yuan exchange exchange rate iya phezulu.
Kwakhona kuthetha ukuba idola iyomeleza kwaye i-yuan iyancipha. Kungenxa yokuba idola elinamandla linokuthenga i-yuan ngaphezulu. Ukuguqulwa kweedola ukuya ku-yuan kuye kwaba enye yezinga lokutshintshiselwa kakhulu . Kungenxa yokuba la mazwe amabini anesimo esikhulu sezoqoqosho .
Amabutho amathathu achaphazela iDola ukuya kuguqulwa kwe Yuan
Imikhosi emithathu ibangela ukuba idola liguqulwe kwi yuan. Iyokuqala yinkxaso enxulumene noqoqosho lwamazwe amabini . Ngokomzekelo, ixabiso leli dola liqinisa ngexesha lobunzima behlabathi. Abatyalomali bathenga iidola kunye namanqaku eNondyebo njengendawo ephephile. Umlinganiselo omkhulu wemali we- US -to-gross domestic product ratio ungasongela ixabiso lentela kwixesha elizayo.
Okwesibini unikezelo kunye nemfuno . Idola, njenge- currency reserve currency , isoloko ifuna kakhulu. Kungenxa yokuba zonke iimveliso zontengiso , ngokugqithiseleyo ezo zegolide neoli zithengwa ngeedola. Phantse isiqingatha sezo zonke iintengiso zehlabathi zenziwe ngeedola.
I-United States idibana nale mfuno ngokuthengisa amanqaku kaNondyebo . Ezi zifana neerola kuba ziyakwazi ukuguqulwa ngokukhawuleza zibe yi-dollar bills nanini na.
Ingxenye yesithathu yimbumba ye-yuan idola . Idola ukuya kwi-yuan xabiso yayisisiseko sokutshintshiselwa . Kuye yalawulwa ngokuqinileyo yibhanki ephakathi yaseChina.
Uqoqosho lwe-China lwaluxhomekeke kule nqanaba ukulawula iintengiso zamazwe angaphandle kunye nokugcina iimveliso zentetho yaseChina. Ibhanki Yabantu baseTshayina ayizange ivumele i yuan ukuba iphakame ngamaphesenti a-2 ngaphezulu okanye iipesenti ezi-2 ngaphantsi kwebhaksi yee currenti eyayiyi-dollar yase-US. Le nqanaba yayingama-6.25 yuan ngeyadola ukuya ku-2016.
Kutheni iChina ityala, yabuqinisa, i Yuan
NgoJulayi 2015, imakethi ye-stock market yaseChina yawa ngokuphawulekayo. Abatyalomali, bondliwa ngokunyaniseka, babefuna ukutshala imali ngaphandle kwelizwe. Ukuze benze njalo, babefuna ukutshintshisa i-yuan kwiidola zase-US. Iibhanki zaseTshayina zalahlekelwa zigidi ezingama-39 zamaRandi ngoJulayi, ukuhla kwehla kwenyuka kowonke ukusukela ngonyaka ka-1998. I-PBOC ifuna ukumisa imali ekuphumeni kwelizwe.
Ngomhla ka-Agasti 11, 2015 , i-PBOC yatshitshisa iimarike zerhwebo zangaphandle . Ikwazisa ukuba yayiza kusebenzisa isantya sokubhalisa esilingana nexabiso lokuvala lomhla wangaphambili. Ibhanki iya kuthatha ingqalelo ukunikezelwa kunye neemfuno kunye nokunyuka kwee-currenti ezinkulu ekusetyenzisweni kwezinga elibizwa ngokuba lilungiswa.
Nantsi indlela eyasebenza ngayo. I-PBOC ithumele izinga lokulungisa elitsha ngo-9: 15 ekuseni. Ukuhweba kwaqala ngo-9: 30. I-PBOC ivumela i-yuan ukuba idibanise kwi-2 yeepesenti phambi kokungena.
Ngoko akwenzi nto kuba ixabiso le-yuan lahlala ngaphakathi.
Ngomso i-yuan yawela i-1.0% ukuya kwi-6.3845. I-PBOC yangenelela ukuyeka ukuhla. Yathenga i-yuan kwiibhanki zesizwe, ukunciphisa ukunikezelwa kwayo nokuphakanyiswa kwayo. Kwatshintsha i-yuan ngeedola zase-US, ukukhukula kwiimarike nokunciphisa ixabiso layo. Ngo-Agasti 14, i-yuan yafumana i-0.1% ukuya kwi-6.3908 nge-dollar. Konke, i-yuan yawa ngama-3 ekhulwini ngokuchasene nedola.
Abahlalutyi abaninzi balumkisa ukuba i-yuan yayiza kuwela enye iipesenti ezili-10. Bekholelwa ukuba iChina yayiqala imfazwe yemali . Enyanisweni, i-PBOC ayifuni ukuba i-yuan idlale kakhulu. Amashishini amaninzi aseTshayina athathe imali-mboleko kwiidola zase-US. Basebenzisa ixabiso lentengo ephantsi-mali, ngenxa yeprogram ye- US Federal Reserve yokunciphisa ukulinganisa .
Iindleko zokuhlawula izi mboleko ziza kuphakama njengoko ixabiso le-yuan liwa.
Ngo-Oktobha 10, 2015, i-PBOC yabatshatyalali ukuba iya kuqhubeka ivumela i-yuan ukuba ithinteke kwiimarike zemarike. Kwakhona wabaqinisekisa ukuba le ntshukumo ayiyi kuba yinto eqhelekileyo. I-PBOC ifuna ukuvumela i-yuan ukuba iguquke ngokuthe ngcembe kwinqanaba lokutshintshiselana. Oku kuya kunika ukuguquguquka komgaqo-nkqubo wezemali . Enye inyathelo ekukhuthazeni i- yuan ukuba ithathe indawo yeli dola njengemali yehlabathi jikelele .
Ngomhla kaJanuwari 6, 2016 , i-PBOC ikhulule ngakumbi ukulawulwa kwayo kwe-yuan njengenxalenye yokuguqulwa kwezoqoqosho eChina . Yavumela i-yuan ukuba ifike ku-6.5567 ukusuka kwi-6.5084 ngoJanuwari 1, 2016. Ukungaqiniseki kwixesha elizayo le-yuan kunceda ukuthumela iDow phantsi kwamanqaku angama-400 . Ekupheleni kweveki, i-yuan yayiwi-6.5853, ithumela iDow phantsi kwamanqaku angaphezu kwe-1,000.
I-PBOC ifuna iNgxowa-mali yeZizwe ngeziMali ukukhetha i-yuan njengemali ye-reserve esemthethweni. I-IMF ifuna i-yuan ukuba iqhutywe ngakumbi ngamashishini emakethe, nokuba ngaba kuthetha ukunyaniseka kwemarike.
Utshintsho lomgaqo-bhanki oluphambili lubamba iimarike zomhlaba wonke. Abathengisi abaninzi kunye namashishini babenqabile ukubonakala kwabo kwi-yuan. Ekubeni i-yuan ayingatshintshanga kakhulu kwiminyaka engaphambili, bacinga ukuba ikhuselwe. Ukuba i-yuan iqalile ukuthengisa ngokukhululekile, inokulimaza inzuzo yabo.
Ukungaqiniseki kwakha amandla okwesine kunye nomsebenzi. Ngo-2016, i- hedge funds njenge-Hayman Capital Management yaqalisa ukukhawuleza i-yuan kunye ne-Hong Kong idola. Bathetha ukuba i-yuan yayiza kuwela ngamaphesenti angama-40 ngo-2019. Oko kubeka ingcinezelo phantsi kwexabiso le-yuan. Okubangela ukuba i-PBOC ithenge enye i-yuan kwaye imisele ezinye izithintelo ukugcina i-yuan ekujoliswe kuyo.
Ngo-2017, i-yuan yenyuka iipesenti eziyi-8. I-PBOC ayifuni ukuba ibhalwe nge-manipulator yemali. UMongameli uTrump wayesongela ukuba yi-China njengaleyo ngethuba lolophulo luka-2016.
Imbali
Njengoko ishati engezansi ibonisa, iChina yagcina i-yuan malunga nexabiso elifanayo kwaze kwaba ngo-2005. Yilapho i- US Congress ityala iShayina ukuba iqale imfazwe yemali. UMongameli uBush ogama linguHank Paulson njengoNobhala Wezezimali ukucela iChina ukuqinisa imali yayo. Oku kuya kwenza ukuba amazwe angaphandle athe xaxa xa kuthelekiswa nemveliso yase-US.
Iinkokheli zaseShayina zathobela, nangona ziza kuncipha ukukhula koqoqosho kweChina . Bayafuna ukugcina uqoqosho lube ludumo, ukudala ukunyuka kwamaxabiso . NgoJanuwari 26, 2014, i-yuan yafikelela kwiminyaka eyi-18 ephakamileyo. Oku kuthetha ukuba idola enye inokuthenga kuphela i-6.0487 yuan.
Ukususela ngo-2005, i-yuan yenyuka ngamaphesenti ama-33 ngokumelene nedola. Leyo izinga lokunyuka kwezempilo. Naluphi na oya kuba nefuthe elibi lezoqoqosho kwiChina. Izwe lizama ngamandla ukugcina abantu abayi-1.3 billion beqeshwe ukuphakamisa umgangatho wabo wokuphila . Iinkokheli zaseChina zinoyika ukuba ziya kuvukela ukuba ukukhula akukhawulezi ngokwaneleyo.
Nangona i-yuan ilawulwa ngokunyuka, abahlalutyi abaninzi bacinga ukuba urhulumente waseTshayina wagcina i-yuan iphantsi. Bathi kwakufuneka ukuphakama ngaphezulu kweepesenti ezingama-30 kwixabiso. Batshilo ukuba ukuba iChina ivumele i yuan ukuba iphole ngokukhululekile, iya kuba yinto ebaluleke ngaphezu kwedola ngenxa yezoqoqosho zaseChina.
Ukususela ngo-2014, ibhanki ephakathi yaseChina iye yavumela i-yuan ukuba iyancipha kwakhona ukuze ikhulise iimveliso zayo. I dollar iphakama iipesenti ezili-15 ngokubhekiselele kwiininzi ezinkulu zezimali ngo-2014, ukudonsa i-yuan nayo. I-yuan yayigqithiselwe kakhulu xa kuthelekiswa namanye amaqabane athengiselwano awazange afakwe kwiidola. Ukususela ngo-2005, kuye kwaphakama ama-55.7 ekhulwini ekulungiseni ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.