Ukubuyisela: Inkcazo kunye nenjongo

2 Iinkcazo zokuLukela: Nguwuphi na ochanekileyo?

Inkcazo: Ukwehla kwemali "yithuba loqoqosho lwezoqoqosho oluye lwasasazeka kulo lonke uqoqosho, luhlala ngaphezu kweenyanga ezimbalwa." Leyo ichazwe ngokusemthethweni kwiBhunga leSizwe loPhando loQoqosho. I-NBER yinkampani yangasese engenzi-nzuzo eyenza ivakalise xa kuqaliswa ukuhanjelwa kwemisebenzi. Umthombo wesizwe wokulinganisa izigaba zomjikelo-shishino .

I-NBER ibonisa imiba emihlanu ukuba ichaze xa kuvela ukunyuka kwemali.

Ezi zibonakaliso ezizakubukela ukuba ufuna ukwazi ukuba uqoqosho luni.

Isalathisi esibaluleke kakhulu iGDP yangempela . Oko kufaka umlinganiselo wezoqoqosho wase-US njengoko ulinganiswe ngumkhiqizo wekhaya ophezulu . Yiyo yonke into eyenziwa ngamashishini kunye nabantu ngabanye e-United States. Ibizwa ngokuba yinyani kuba imiphumo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ikhutshwe.

Xa izinga lokwenyuka kweGDP lijika, lingaba ngumhlaba. Ngamanye amaxesha ukukhula kuya kuba yinto engafanelekanga kwaye kuguquke kwikota elandelayo. Ngamanye amaxesha i- Bureau of Analysis yezoQoqosho ingabuya ukuhlaziywa kwe-GDP kwingxelo yayo elandelayo. Kunzima ukuchonga ukuba uhamba ngokwemali kwi-GDP yodwa.

Yingakho i-NBER yenza amanani alandelayo ngenyanga. Ezi zinika ukuqikelela okuthe xaxa kokukhula koqoqosho.

• Imilinganiselo yangempela yokufumana ingeniso yongeniso lomntu olutshintshiselwe ukunyuka kwamaxabiso Ukuhlawulwa kweentlawulo, ezifana neNtlalo yoKhuseleko kunye neentlawulo zentlalontle, zisuswe. Xa ingeniso yangempela iyancipha, eyanciphisa ukuthengwa kwabathengi kunye nemfuno.

• Ingqesho njengoko kulinganiswa ingxelo yengxelo yenyanga . Nanku ukuhlaziywa kwamanani emisebenzi yangoku .
• Impilo yecandelo lokuvelisa , njengoko lilinganiselwe yiNgxelo yoPhuhliso lwezoPhuhliso.
• Ukuthengiswa kunye nokuthengiswa kwe-wholesale- sales sales adjusted for inflation.
• I-NBER iphinda ibhekisise ukuqikelelwa kwenyanga nganye ye-GDP enikezelwa ngabacebisi ngezeMacroeconomic. (Umthombo: "I-NBER yoLuhlu lweNkundla yokuTyala," i-NBER.)

Qaphela ukuba i- market market NOT NOT a indicator of recession. Amanani esitokisi abonakaliswa yimali efunyenweyo yeenkampani zikarhulumente. Ngamanye amaxesha ukulindela kwabathengi banethemba elininzi, kwaye ngamanye amaxesha banamathemba. Ngoko ke, imarike yemasheya iyancipha ngaphezu koqoqosho. Xa kukho ukunyuka kwemali, imarike yesitokisi ihlala ifika kwimarike yeebhere (i-20% yehla). I-reverse ayisoloko iyinyani. Fumana ukuba i-Stock Market Crash ingenza njani Ukubuyisela .

I-NBER isebenzisa ubuchule, isigwebo, kunye nobuchule boomishinala babo ukuba banqume ukuba ihlabathi liyakwehla. Ngaloo ndlela, ayikho ibhokisi ngeenombolo. Ingasebenzisa idatha yenyanga nganye ukuchonga xa kukho intle, kwaye uqoqosho luqale ukuhla. Oku kuvumela ukuba kube ngokuchanekileyo kwaye ngexesha elifanelekileyo kwimilinganiselo yalo.

Kutheni u kholosa i-NBER? Ingummeli osemthethweni wohlahlo lwezoqoqosho kunye nokwahlukana. Iinkokeli zeengcinga zezoqoqosho zeSizwe, ezibandakanya abaphumeleleyo beNobel, zenze iBhodi yayo. Unama-economics angaphezu kwe-1,300 kunye nabaprofeshi bezoshishino abenza uphando. (Jonga iKomishoni yokuDlelana kweBusiness Business, NBER, ngoJulayi 2003. "I-Business Cycle Cyak of March 2001," i-NBER.)

Inkcazo kwi-Economics: Iincwadi ezininzi zezoqoqosho zichaza ukunyuka kwemali njengengqutyana elandelelanayo yokukhula kweGDP .

Kwakuqala ukuphakanyiswa nguJulius Shisken, ngoko-uKomishinala we- Bureau of Labor Statistics , ngo-1974. Nangona kunjalo, wayenobungqina obuchanekileyo ngakumbi:

1. Ukuhla kweyonke imveliso yesizwe esiphucukileyo kwimigangatho emibili elandelelanayo.
2. Ukuhla kweepesenti ye-1.5 kwi-GNP yangempela.
3. Ukuyeka ekuveleni kwithuba leenyanga ezintandathu.
4. Ukuncipha kweepesenti eziyi-1.5 kwimisebenzi yokubhalwa kwemirhumo engekho yefama.
5. Ukunciphisa imisebenzi kuma-75 ekhulwini kwamashishini kwiinyanga ezintandathu okanye ngaphezulu.
6. Ukuphakama kwembini kwintlupheko yokungasebenzi kuya kwizinga lesithandathu kwipesenti.

UMkomishinala uShisken uphakamise le nkcazo eninzi kuba abantu abaninzi babengenakunyaniseka ukuba ihlabathi liye lahleka ngokwemali ngo-1974. (Umthombo: "Ukutshintshwa Kwendlela Yoshishino," I-New York Times, ngoDisemba 1, 1974.)

Kungenxa yokuba bebuhlungu ngenxa ye- stagflation . Nangona i-GDP yayingalunganga, amaxabiso awazange awe.

Nangona kunjalo, oko kwakungenxa yemigaqo-nkqubo yezoqoqosho ye-Nixon , ngokukodwa ithatha i-US ngaphandle komgangatho wegolide . Oko, kunye nomvuzo womvuzo / ukulawula intengo, kwakhiwe ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngamanani amabini. Ngaphezulu, jonga i- GDP ngonyaka .

Inkcazo yokuKhululeka kwakhona

I-NBER yavakalisa ukuba iRest Recession ngaphezu kwekota yesithathu ka-2009. Kwakuyintlupheko embi kakhulu ukususela kwi- Depression Depression , kunye neekota ezintlanu zokwehla kwezoqoqosho, ezine zazo ezilandelelanayo, ngo- 2008 no-2009 . Kwakhona kwakude kakhulu, ihlala iinyanga ezili-18.

I-NBER yathi ukunyuka kwe- 2001 kwaqhubeka phakathi kukaMatshi 2001-Novemba 2001 nangona ukukhula kwe-GDP kwakungenanto kwikota eyodwa epheleleyo ngeli xesha. (Jonga i-Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions, "NBER.)