Yintoni efanelekileyo yokukhula kweGDP?

Njani Ukukhawuleza Ukuba Kufuneka Uqoqosho lukhule?

Isantya sokukhula kweGDP enempilo yinto ezinzileyo ukuze uqoqosho luhlale kwisigaba sokwandiswa komjikelezo wezoshishino ixesha elide kunokwenzeka. I-GDP yipropati yomhlaba. Yonke imveliso yezoqoqosho ngonyaka ophelileyo. Isantya sokukhula kwe-GDP yimalini nangaphezulu koqoqosho oluveliswe ngaphezu kwekota yangaphambili. Iqondo elifanelekileyo liphakathi kwama-2-3 ekhulwini.

Kuqoqosho olusempilweni, ukungabikho kwemisebenzi kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunokulinganisela.

Izinga lokungabikho kwemisebenzi liza kuba phakathi kwama-4.7 ekhulwini kunye nama-5.8 ekhulwini. Ixabiso lokujoliswa kwexabiso lentengo liya kuba yi-2.0 ekhulwini.

Ucinga ukuba ukukhula oku ngakumbi, kungcono. Kodwa izinga lokukhula kweGDP elifanelekileyo lifana nokushisa komzimba kwama-degrees 98.6. Kucacile ukuba, ukuba ubushushu bakho buphantsi kuneyona ndlela, uyazi ukuba ugula. Ukuba uphantsi kakhulu, usondele kufuphi nokufa. Kodwa ukushisa okuphezulu kunokuthetha ukuba ugula. Ukuba uneminyaka engaphezu kwe-100, unomkhuhlane. Ukuba ungaphezu kwama-degrees angama-104 nawaphi na ixesha, ugule ukufa.

Ukuba uqoqosho lukhula ngokukhawuleza, okanye nakwiikontraka, kusobala ukuba aluphilile. Kodwa, ukuba ikhula ngokukhawuleza, akunjalo, nokuba kunjalo. Enyanisweni, ukuba ukukhula kwe-GDP kuqala ukuhlahlela ngaphezu kweepesenti ezingama-4 kwiindawo eziliqela, kudla kuthetha ukuba kukho i- bubble aseset of some kind. Kwimijikelezo yoshishino, isigaba esilandelayo ukwandiswa yiyona nto.

Uqoqosho luya ekungeneni kwemali xa i- Federal Reserve ingenzi nto.

Kungenxa yokuba xa uqoqosho lukhula ngokukhawuleza, lugqithisa. Kukho imali eninzi yokutshutshisa amathuba ambalwa okukhula okwenene. Abatyalomali baqala ukubeka imali engaphezu kwemali. Xa belahlekelwa yimali, bayesaba. Baqala ukuthengisa, okubangela ukuba utyalo-mali lulahlekelwe yimali. Akupheli kude kube ngamaxabiso aphantsi ngokwaneleyo ukuyeka ubudenge nokutsala abatyale-mali.

Umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali we-Feds ngenye yezizathu zentshukumo yomsebenzi .

U mzekelo

Ngowe-1999-2000, bekukho ukungahambi ngokungahambelani kwiindawo zobugcisa obuphezulu. Ngo-1999, ukukhula kwe-GDP yase-US kwakungama-5.1 ekhulwini kwikota yesithathu kunye ne-7.1 pesenti kwikota yesine. Ngo-2005-2006, i-bubble ye-aseset yayisezindlu. Uqoqosho lwakhula ngo-4.3 ekhulwini kwikota yokuqala ka-2005, kunye ne-4.9 ekhulwini kwikota yokuqala ka-2006. Ngethuba lobabini, ukukhula kweGDP kwanyuka ngaphezu kweepesenti ezingama-3 kwiikota eziliqela ngokulandelana.

Xa ukukhula kweGDP kungaphezulu kweyona nto ifanelekileyo, kunokubangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso . Ngexesha lika-1999-2000, ukunyuka kwama-US kwaba ngama-2.7 ekhulwini-ama-3 ekhulwini. Phakathi kuka-2003-2005, bekuyi-3 ekhulwini ukuya kuma-4 ekhulwini. Oku kuhle ngaphezu kwepesenti ezi-2 ezijoliswe kumlinganiselo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso.

Emva kokuba ibhola liqhuma, uqoqosho luqala isigaba sokuqhawulwa komjikelo. Ukukhula kwe-GDP ngokuqhelekileyo kuwela ngokukhawuleza kwaye kungena kwintsimi embi, ebonisa ukunyuka kwemali. Ngethuba le-2008-2009, i- GDP yase-US inesivumelwano kwiindawo ezihlanu. Phakathi kuka-2000-2002, kwaphakama ngaphezu kweepesenti ezimbini kwikota enye kunye ne-shrank kwiikota ezimbini.

Imilinganiselo enempilo yokukhula i-Percent 2 ukuya kuma-3 Ipesenti

Abachumi bavuma ukuba izinga lokukhula kweGDP liphezulu ngaphezu kweepesenti ezi-2 kodwa ngaphantsi kwama-4 ekhulwini.

Phakathi kweentlawulo ezimbini, izinga lokukhula koqoqosho lonyaka lalisempilweni:

• 2.5 ekhulwini ngo-2003.
• 3.9 ekhulwini ngo-2004.
• 3.2 ekhulwini ngo-2005.
• 2.7 ekhulwini ngo-2006.
• 2.0 iphesenti ngo-2007.

Izinga lokukhula konyaka lifihla ubuninzi bokungabi nanyanga kwenyanga. Izikhokelo zeengxaki zemali ezizayo zonyaka ka-2008 zavela kule mivuzo yokukhula kweGDP yekota. Ngokomzekelo, izinga lokukhula ngonyaka lonyaka ka-2006 lalibukeka likhulu kuma-2.7 ekhulwini, kodwa iirhafu zekota zasixwayisa ngobuthakathaka obuthathaka kwezoqoqosho kwisahlulo sesibini sonyaka. Uqoqosho lwakhula nje ngeepesenti eziyi-0.1 kwi-Q3. Kwakuyi-2.7 pesenti kwi-Q4. Oku kwenzeka emva kokuba i-bhoom yasekhaya iqhube. Inkcitho yokubambisa i-subprime yayiyiyona nto.

Ngo-2007, kwakubonakala ngathi uqoqosho luya kubuyiselwa, kwaye umonakalo wawuya kugcinwa kwizindlu. Emva koko, ukukhula kwehle kakhulu kwiQ4:

• Q1 0.2 ipesenti
• Q2 3.1 ipesenti
• Q3 2.7 ekhulwini
• Q4 1.4 ipesenti.

Ngethuba loqoqosho lwe-2008 , amazinga okukhula kwe-GDP ayedabuli. Iingxaki kwizindlu zazisasazeka kubatyalomali kwiimali ezixhaswa ngemali-mboleko , njengoko ingxaki yezemali ikhusele lonke uqoqosho.

• Q1 -2.7 ipesenti
• Ii-2.0 zeepesenti
• Q3 -1.9 ekhulwini
• Ipesenti ze-Q4 -8.2.

Obama uzuze uqoqosho olungenampilo

Umongameli omtsha uqalise iNkqubo yoQoqosho lwezoQoqosho ngo-Matshi 2009 ukubuyisela ukuzithemba nokukhuthaza ubutyebi kwimpilo. Ngaphambi kokuba iphunyezwe, iikota ezimbini zokuqala ngo-2009 zazingalunganga. Babuyela kwintsimi entle kwikota yesithathu.

• Q1 -5.4 ekhulwini
• Q2 -0.5 ekhulwini
• Q3: 1.3 ipesenti
• Q4: 3.9 ekhulwini.

Izinga lokukhula kwikota nganye ka-2010 zazintle, kodwa kungekhona kwi-2-3 yeepesenti. Ngo-2011, uqoqosho luye lwaqhawula kwikota yokuqala. Ukugqithiswa okuphezulu kwi- subprime mortgage crisis kwakunqanda ukuthengiswa kweemakethi yezindlu.

Ngaba i-Economy Healthy Now?

Abahlalutyi abaninzi bayakhalaza ukuba ukubuyiswa kwamanje kwe-US kukubi. Bathi ukuzama ukukhuthaza ukukhula koqoqosho kuye kwahluleka. Abezopolitiko bathetha imigaqo yabo baya kubuyisa ukukhula ukuya kuma-3-4 ekhulwini. Kodwa, abaqapheli ukuba ukukhula kukuba, inxalenye enkulu, ngaphakathi kwimiba enempilo.

Nanku ukukhula kweGDP nganye kwikota nganye ukususela ngo-2012. Ngaphezulu, i- Current GDP Growth Rates .

2012 2.2 Ipesenti eziphilileyo

Q1 2.7 Ipesenti ezempilo.
I-Q2 1.9 ipesenti yephulo likaMongameli lidale ukungaqiniseki.
I -3 yeepesenti ye-0.5 I-Superstorm Sandy.
I-Q4 Ipesenti ye-0.1 Inkcazo yemali. Ukulandelwa.

2013 1.7 Ipesenti yokuPhumela okuPhulayo
I-Q1 2.8 Ipesenti Imvula yemozulu ayizange ifuthe iimveliso emva kwayo yonke into.
I-Q2 0.8 Ipesenti yokuhlawulwa kwentlawulo yaphela.
Q3 3.1 Ipesenti eziphilileyo.
I-4.0 yepesenti yeepesenti ye-Qinisekiso yeeRhafu ezixhaswe yi-auto sales.

2014 2.4 I-Percent Healthy
Q1 -1.2 Ipesenti Ukubhala ubhale emva kokuthengiswa kweeholide.
I-Q2 4.0 yeepesenti Ukukhula kuye kwanyuka kwikota yokuqala.
I-Q3 5.0 iphesenti yeepesenti ezili-16 kwiindleko zempi.
Q4 2.3 Ipesenti eziphilileyo,

2015 2.6 Ipesenti ezempilo
I-Q1 2.0 Ipesenti ngenxa yeephepho zasebusika.
I-2.2 yeepesenti yezoqoqosho i-Q2 ivuselelwe.
I-Q3 2.0 Ipesenti zinempilo.
I-Q4 0.9 Ipesenti yeDolayi yanciphisa amazwe angaphandle.

2016 1.6 Amaphesenti aphantsi
Q1 0.8 Ipesenti yemarike yawa, ukunciphisa utyalo-mali.
I-Q2 1.4 Ipesenti edoliweyo yanciphisa amazwe angaphandle.
Q3 3.5 Ipesenti zokuthengisa ngokuzenzekelayo, ukwakhiwa kwezorhwebo.
I-Q4 2.1 Ipesenti ezempilo ngenxa yokusetyenziswa kwemali.

2017
I-Q1 1.2 yepesenti Inkcitho kaRhulumente yawa.
I-Q2 3.1 Ipesenti ezithembekileyo zabathengi ezenzileyo.
Q3 3.2 Ipesenti zithe gqolo.
Q4 2.6 ipesenti Ukusetyenziswa kwemali enamandla kwizinto ezizinzileyo.

Ngokubanzi: I-GDP yangempela | Izixhobo zeGDP | Thelekisa i-GDP phakathi kwamazwe | GDP neGNP | Imali yeNgeniso kaZwelonke | Ukuxinezeleka