Ukunyuka kwama-Irrational Exuberance, ii-Quotes zayo, iingozi, kunye nemizekelo

Ingozi Efihlakeleyo Yokwenyuka Kwemvelo

Ukutshatyalaliswa okungenangqondo xa abatyali-mali bathemba ngokuqinisekileyo ukuba intengo ye-asethi iya kuhlala isenyuka, ilahlekelwa yimpumelelo yayo. Bakujongela ukuhlaselwa kwezinto ezisemgangathweni kwezoqoqosho ngokulandela imbuyekezo ephezulu. Kunoko, bangena kwimfazwe yokumelana kwaye bathumele amaxabiso phezulu nakwizinga eliphezulu. Ukufudumala okungaqhelekanga kuqhuba isigaba esiphezulu somjikelezo wezoshishino .

Alan Greenspan Quote

Lowo owayengumongameli we- Federal Reserve , u-Alan Greenspan, wokuqala waqulunqa ibinzana kwintetho ka-1996 kwi-American Enterprise Institute.

Kwi "Inselele yeCentral Banking kwiDemocratic Society," uGreenspan wabuza indlela abanini bebhanki ababengayibonisa ngayo ukuba ixabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso.

"Kodwa sisazi njani ukuba ukunyaniseka okungaqhelekanga kuye kwandiswe ngokwexabiso elingakumbi ngokwexabiso leexabiso lee-asethi, ezibe zingaphantsi kwezinto ezingalindelekanga kunye nexesha elide njengoko ziseJapan kule minyaka elishumi edlulileyo?" (Umthombo: "Intetho kwi-American Enterprise Institute," u-Alan Greenspan, ngoDisemba 6, 1996.)

UGreenspan wathi ixabiso elincinci lenzalo lenze igalelo elizinzileyo. Kwakhokelela ekukhathazeni ngabatyalo-mali. Abazange bawunaki umngcipheko njengoko befuna ukubuyiswa okuphezulu.

Emva koko wabuza ukuba iibhanki eziphambili kufuneka zijongene nokungaxhamli komgaqo-nkqubo wezemali . Ngelo xesha, iFed ayizange ixhamle kwiimarike zamasheya okanye nakwixabiso lezindlu. Wayeqaphela ukuba, ukuba ibhanki ephakathi kufuneka ibandakanyeke xa bebona ukuba ukuxhamla ngokugqithiseleyo kukuqhuba ibhola eliyingozi.

Wagqiba ekubeni xa i-market market okanye nayiphi na iklasi ye-asethi ithintela uqoqosho, ke ibhanki ephakathi kufuneka ibandakanyeke.

Ukusetyenziswa kweGreenspan yegama elithi "ukunyaniseka okungaqondakaliyo" kuthumele iimarike zamasheya ezinqabileyo ngosuku olulandelayo. Abatyalomali babesaba ukuba iFed yayiza kuphakamisa izinga lentengo yokunciphisa umnotho.

Robert Shiller Book

Ngo-2000, uprofesa we-Yale kunye nomnotho wezolawulo, uRobert J. Shiller, wabhala incwadi ethi "I-Irrational Exuberance." Le ncwadi yaziwa ngokuba yachaza imbono yenkomo eyadala i-tech stock bubble ngonyaka ka-2000. Wabikezela kwakhona ukuhlaselwa kweemakethe ze-stock market eyabangela ukunyuka kwe-2001.

Wakhupha umshicileli wesibini ngo-2005. Waxela kwangaphambili ukuba i-bubble yezindlu kunye nokuhlaselwa kwayo. UShiller wachaza nendlela ukunyuka kwemali kwe-2001 kwakha ngayo iingxaki zemali. Njengoko abatyali-mali belahlekelwa ithemba lokuthengisa i-stock market, batyala imali. Oku kugqiba ukudala ibhola apho.

Ingozi

Umngcipheko wokunyaniseka okungaqondakaliyo kukuba udala ibhola. Kufihlekile kuba kubonakala ngathi amaxabiso aphakama ngenxa yezizathu ezifanelekileyo. Kodwa nayiphi na into inokutshabalalisa umbhobho. Ngenxa yoko, ukukrakra kwekratshi kuya kutshintsha xa amaxabiso e-asethi abuyela kwimilinganiselo yabo yehlabathi.

Abatyalomali bathengisa nayiphi na indleko, bathumela amaxabiso angaphantsi kwexabiso labo langempela. Ukuwa kweza kwasasazeka kwezinye iiklasi zeefa. Ekugqibeleni, kunokunciphisa ukukhula koqoqosho kunye nokudala ukunyuka kwemali. Uyabona Ingaba i-Stock Market Crash Yenza ukuba uhlaziywe kwakhona?

U mzekelo

Umjikelezo wokugqibela we- boom-bust kwenzeka ngexabiso leoli ngo-2014. Emva kokufikelela kwi-100.14 ye-Juni ngoJuni, amaxabiso eoli anamafutha angasese eWest Texas ayenayo i-15% ukuya kwi-53.45 ngo-Disemba 26, 2014.

Kwakuyimini yokugqibela yokuhweba ka-2014. Yaye yawela kwi-38.22 yezigidi ngo-Agasti 28, 2015, ephantsi kunonyaka. La ma xabiso aphantsi aqala ukuchaphazela uqoqosho ngo-2015. Ingakumbi iinkampani zeoli ze-US kwi- oil oil shale zashiya abasebenzi. Kamva ngo-2015, abaninzi baqala ukusilela kwiimbopheleleko ezingenanto .

Ukugqitywa kwexabiso lexabiso leoli kwakuyingxenye ekuphenduleni ukunyaniseka okungaqhelekanga kwiDola laseMelika . Abatyalomali bandise amandla edoli ngamaphesenti angama-25 ngo-2014 nangama-2015. Kwachaphazela ukuveliswa kwabakhiqizi ngokunikezela ngokwenza amaxabiso abo. Umkhiqizo omkhulu wekhaya uphuthulwe kwikota yesithathu.

I-dollar eqinile nayo iqhube ixabiso le- yuan yaseTshayina, eyayixhomekeke kwidola. Ekuphenduleni, iBhanki yaBantu baseTshayina yanciphisa inani le-yuan ngama-3 ekhulwini ngo-Agasti 2015. Oku kwashukumisa ukukhwabanisa kwemakethe yaseShayina nokuphakamisa iingxaki zemfazwe zemali .

Ukunyaniseka okungaqhelekanga kwenzeke ngexabiso legolide ngo-2011. Ngethamsanqa, aluzange lusasaze kulo lonke uqoqosho.

Kwenzeke kunye namanqaku eNondyebo. Amaxabiso afinyelele kwinani eliphambili ngo-2012, ekwakheni isivuno esincinane kunazo zonke kwiminyaka engama-200. Imfuno ye-Treasury ayizange iwele phantsi kokuba iFed iqale ukunyusa amaxabiso ngo-2015.

Iibhola ze-Asset zenzeke ngamasheya ngo-2013. Amaxabiso aphakama ama-30 ekhulwini, ukukhutshwa kwezinto ezisisiseko.