I-Boom ne-Bust Cycle: Izizathu kunye neMbali

Ama-Booms kunye neeBhasi ukususela ngowe-1929

Ngethuba lokujikeleza, bonke abantu bacinga ukuba baya kuba nobutyebi. Ifoto nguJames Devaney / WireImage

Ukuqhaqhaqhaqa nokujikeleza kwimizila yokutshintsha kwezoqoqosho kunye nokuncipha. Yindlela abantu abaninzi bachaza ngayo umjikelezo wezoqoqosho okanye umjikelo wezoqoqosho.

Kwimijikelezo ye-boom, ukukhula kukuhle. Ukuba ukukhula kokuveliswa kwemveliso yasemakhaya kusekho kwi- 2-3 pesenti yeentlobo , kunokuhlala kweli nqanaba iminyaka. Ihamba nemarike yenkomo , ukunyuka kwexabiso lezindlu, ukukhula kwamaholo kunye nokungasebenzi kwabangaphantsi.

Isigaba sokuqhawula asipheli ngaphandle kokuba uqoqosho luvumelekile ukuba lube lukhulu.

Yilapho kukho ubuninzi bempahla yokunikezela ngemali , okukhokelela ekunyuseni kwemali . Njengoko amaxabiso aphakama, ukunyaniseka okungaqhelekanga kuthatha abatyalo-mali. Izinga lokukhula kweGDP likhula ngaphezu kwama-4 ekhulwini kwiimitha ezimbini okanye ngaphezulu ngaphezulu. Uyazi ukuba uphelile kwisigaba sokuhlaziya xa amajelo aseburhulumenteni athi ukunyuka akuyi kupheliswa, kwaye nokuba unobhala wezonkcenkceshe wenza imali kwi- bubble ye-asset yamuva.

Isigaba sokugxobhoza sinjengobomi kwiMinyaka Ephakathi. Kwakubuqhetseba, bubuhlungu, kwaye bubele. Ngokuqhelekileyo ihlala iinyanga ezili-18 okanye ngaphantsi. I-GDP iyajika, ukungabikho kwemisebenzi kungama- 7 ekhulwini okanye ngaphezulu, kunye nexabiso lokutshala imali. Ukuba ihlala iinyanga ezingaphezu kweenyanga ezintathu, ngokuqhelekileyo i- recession . Inokubangela ukuphazamiseka kwemakethe ye-stock market , ilandelwa yirhwebo lebhere . Ukufumana okungakumbi, jonga ukuba i-Stock Market Crash ingabangela njani Ukubuyisela .

Izizathu

Imikhosi emithathu idibanisa ukudala umjikelezo wokugqithisa. Ziyimithetho yokubonelela kunye nokufunwa , ukufumaneka kweenkunzi kunye nokulindela kwangomso.

Umfuno onamandla wabathengi uqhuba isigaba sokuqhawula. Iintsapho zithemba ngekamva, ngoko zithenga ngakumbi ngoku, ziyazi ukuba ziya kufumana imisebenzi engcono, izindleko eziphezulu zasekhaya kunye nokunyuka kwamanani entengo kamva. Oku kufuna kuthetha ukuba iinkampani ziye zandisa ukubonelelwa, okwenzayo ngokuqesha abasebenzi abatsha. I-Capital iyatholakala ngokulula, ngokokuba abathengi kunye namashishini angabakholeka kwizinga eliphantsi.

Okukhuthaza iimfuno ezingakumbi, ukudala isiqulatho esihle sempumelelo.

Ukuba iimfuno ezingaphandle kokubonelela , uqoqosho luya kuphelisa. Kwakhona, ukuba kukho imali eninzi yokutshutshisa impahla embalwa, ibangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso . Xa oku kwenzeka, abatyali-mali kunye namashishini azama ukukhupha i-market . Abawunaki umngcipheko wokuzuza.

Ukuzithemba ukuzithemba kubangela umjikelezo wokujikeleza. Abatyalomali kunye nabathengi baxhala xa i-market market ilungisa okanye iphazamiseka. Abatyalomali bathengisa ama- stocks , kwaye bathenge i-investments-haven investments engokuthi ilahlekelwe yixabiso, njengezibophelelo, igolide kunye ne-dollar yase-US. Njengoko iinkampani zibeka abasebenzi, abathengi balahlekelwa yimisebenzi baze bayeke ukuthenga nto ngaphandle kwezinto eziyimfuneko. Oku kubangela ukuhla kwehla. Ukufumana okungakumbi, jonga izizathu zokubuyisela .

Umjikelo wesiqu wokugqibela usiye uqobo. Oku kwenzeka xa amaxabiso aphantsi kangangokuba abo batyali-mali abasenayo imali baqala ukuthenga kwakhona. Oku kungathatha ixesha elide, kwaye kudibanise nokudakumba. Ukuzithemba kunokubuyiswa ngokukhawuleza ngumgaqo- mali webhanki oyintloko kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo wezemali kaRhulumente . Ngaphezulu, yibona Yintoni eyenza i-Boom neBust Cycle?

Imbali

I-Ofisi yeSizwe yoPhando loQoqosho inikezela imbali yokujikeleza. Isebenzisa izikhombisi zezoqoqosho ukuze zilinganise ukujikeleza kwemigudu.

Ezi ziquka izibalo ze-GDP, ingqesho, ingeniso yangempela yomntu, imveliso yoshishino kunye nokuthengiswa kweentengiso .

Ukususela ngo-1929, kubekho iisigidi ezingama-28. Ngokomyinge, ii-booms zinyanga ezingama-38.7 ezidlulileyo kwaye iibhasi zidlulileyo iinyanga ezili-17.5. Ngaphezulu, khangela i-NBER Cycles.

I-Boom yase-US kunye neBust Circle Ukususela ngo-1929

Uhambo Ubude Amazwana
Bust Ngo-Agasti 1929 - Ngowe-1933 Ukuhlaselwa kwemakethe ye-Stock , iirhafu eziphezulu, iDust Bowl .
Boom Ngo-Apr 1933-ngoMatshi 1937 I-FDR idlulise iNguqulelo entsha .
Bust Ngowe-Meyi 1937-Juni 1938 I-FDR izame ukulinganisela ibhajethi.
Boom NgoJulayi 1938 - Jan 1945 Imfazwe Yehlabathi II yokukhuthaza.
Bust Feb 1945 - Oktobha 1945 Uxolo lwengxolo.
Boom NgoNovemba 1945 - Oktobha 1948 UMthetho wezeNgqesho. ISicwangciso seMarshall.
Bust NgoNovemba 1948 - Oktobha 1949 Ukulungiswa kwempi
Boom NgoNovemba 1949 - Juni 1953 Ukuxhotyiswa kweMfazwe yaseKorea .
Bust NgoJulayi 1953 - ngoMeyi 1954 Ukuxoswa kwexesha loxolo.
Boom NgoJuni 1954 - Julayi 1957 Ukunciphisa izinga elincitshisiweyo kwi-1.0%.
Bust Ngo-Aug 1957 - ngoMatshi 1958 Inkcitho ephakanyisiweyo iphakanyisiwe kuma-3.0%.
Boom NgoMeyi 1958-ngoMatshi 1960 Ukunciphisa izinga lokunciphisa i-0.63%.
Bust Ngo-Apr 1960-Feb ka-1961 Inkcitho ephakanyisiweyo iphakanyisiwe kwi-4.0%.
Boom Mar 1961 - Novemba 1969 I-JFK yokuvuselela imali. Ukunciphisa izinga lokunciphisa i-1.17%.
Bust Ngo-1969-Novemba 1970 Ixabiso eliphakanyisiweyo liphakanyisiwe li-9.19%.
Boom Ngo-1970-Oktobha 1973 Ukunciphisa izinga lokunciphisa i-3.5%.
Bust NgoNovemba 1973 - ngoMatshi 1975 I-Nixon yongezelela ukulawulwa kwamaxabiso. Ukuphela komgangatho wegolide . I-OPEC . Stagflation .
Boom NgoMatshi 1975 - NgoDwarha 1979 Ukunciphisa izinga lokunciphisa i-4.75%
Bust Jan 1980 - Julayi 1980 Ixabiso eliphakanyisiweyo liphakanyisiweyo ukuya kuma-20% ukuphelisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Boom Agasti 1980 - Juni 1981 Ukunciphisa amaxabiso. Ngaphezulu, jonga iiRhafu zeFed Funds .
Bust Julayi 1981 - Novemba 1982 Ukuqaliswa kowe-1980.
Boom Ngowe-1982 - Juni 1990 I-Reagan iyanciphisa irhafu yerhafu kwaye ikhulise uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali.
Bust Julayi 1990 - ngoMatshi 1991 Yenzeke ngo-1989 Ingxaki yokuLondoloza kunye neNgxowa-mboleko .
Boom Matshi 1991 - Feb 2001 Kuphelile nge-bubble kwi-intanethi
Bust NgoMatshi 2001 - Novemba 2001 2001 Ukubuyisana okubangelwa ukuhlaselwa kwemakethe yemasheya, amaxabiso amanqanaba aphezulu
Boom Disemba 2001 - Novemba 2007 Iziphumo ezenziwayo zakha indlu ye-bubble ngo-2006
Bust Disemba 2007 - Juni 2009 Intlupheko yeNgxowa-mboleko ye-Subprime , ngo- 2008 iNkqubela yezeMali , iRest Recession
Boom Julayi 2009 - Ngoku UMthetho Wokubuyiswa kweMelika kunye noMthetho wokuThengisa kwakhona kunye nokunciphisa ukulinganisa